Skeptical Science

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Neha Pathak

Most of us sense it without being told why: A walk in the woods or an hour in the park leaves us calmer, clearer, and restored. Increasingly, modern science agrees. A growing body of evidence links time in nature to better physical and mental health – and a major new effort is working to document exactly what that evidence shows.

That effort is called the Nature Record, and its survival is a story in itself. It began as the National Nature Assessment, a federal undertaking modeled on the long-running National Climate Assessment and mandated by a Biden-era executive order. Roughly 180 scientists volunteered to develop about a dozen chapters. The project had reached an early public-comment draft when the Trump administration canceled it. Rather than abandon the work, the authors decided to finish it independently under a new name, with foundation funding and National Academy of Sciences review.

Howard Frumkin, a physician-epidemiologist and a professor emeritus at the University of Washington, led the assessment’s chapter on human health. Yale Climate Connections spoke with him about how the report survived, what the science says about nature’s health benefits, why those benefits aren’t shared equally, and what it all means for communities and the healthcare system.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Yale Climate Connections: The connection between nature, health, and climate change pulls together fields that don’t usually sit at the same table. How do you frame that intersection?

Howard Frumkin: This intersection of the natural world and human health – in the context of climate change – draws on three different lineages intellectually.

The first is the scientific evidence on the health benefits of nature contact, which is what the Nature Record is focusing on. So if you or I take a walk in a forest or in a park, we have nature contact, and something about that is good for us. We don’t fully understand. It might be the visual appreciation of beautiful nature; it might be phytoncides – biogenic chemicals that we’re inhaling. It could be the quiet, could be the physical activity. But nature also delivers benefits without direct contact: The upstream ecosystem in the watershed that delivers clean water is good for health. We may never go up there, but we still benefit from it.

The second is the whole literature on climate solutions, indicating that coastal mangrove forests and sponge cities and tree canopy deliver benefits both in terms of climate mitigation and adaptation: We can store carbon, reduce temperatures of neighborhoods, we can manage storm water.

Then there’s a third line of thinking, which has to do with the human relationship with the natural world. In Indigenous and tribal wisdom, there’s talk of reciprocity, the shared relationship that we have as part of nature, the obligations for stewardship, the legal concepts of the rights of nature. All of that is related to, but different than, the climate benefits piece because it’s explicitly not instrumental; it’s not transactional; it’s relational. You come into that thinking about the right relationship that we as humans should have with the natural world – not because of what it gets us.

Yale Climate Connections: So how did the Nature Record come to be, and how did the project survive after the federal government withdrew its support?

Frumkin: It was a pretty simple concept: the idea that you can’t take good care of what you don’t know. There was a perception that if we were to be good stewards of our natural heritage in this country, we needed an inventory. We needed to take stock of what we had, and not just at a fixed moment in time but over time to understand the trends that were affecting nature and the benefits it delivers. The model for doing that was the National Climate Assessment, which is the every-four-year assessment of climate change in the U.S. – how it’s unfolding, what the impacts are on humans – mandated by federal legislation back in the 1990s. It comes with lots of federal procedures, in terms of scientific rigor, transparency, public review, and so on. Out of that conceptual commitment to taking stock of what we have, and using the model of the National Climate Assessment, an executive order in the Biden administration mandated the creation of the National Nature [Assessment].

It got as far as a “zero order draft,” – what regular people call an outline – that was published in the Federal Record and made available for public comment. And no sooner did that happen than the Trump inauguration happened, and the Trump administration killed the National Nature Assessment.

By then we had rostered around 12 chapters with around 15 authors each, so we had 180 authors all volunteering time, representing academic institutions and agencies and NGOs across the country. And pretty much in the blink of an eye, everybody said, “Let’s do it anyway … This work is so important, and the value is so clear that we don’t need to be a federal undertaking.”

There were some legal issues, like we couldn’t use the same name; federal employees could no longer participate because of potential risks to them and to the project. We found foundation support in early 2025, and by mid-2025 [it was] clear that we had enough money, energy, and commitment that we could continue. We landed on the Nature Record, and we’re proceeding almost in some ways as if it were a federal document – with transparency, National Academy of Sciences review, very careful documentation of all factual claims – partly because rigor will give a lot of credibility to the report, and partly because it would be a good thing for this to return to being a federal effort. If we have followed all the rules, dotted all the i’s, and crossed all the t’s, this can be reimported into government.

That said, being nonfederal offers some advantages. We can be more flexible and nimble, more creative in the ways we undertake outreach and build partnerships, and publicize and disseminate what we find. In some ways, this is a blessing in disguise. We have, for example, a national poetry effort running alongside the Nature Record, and we’ve published a book of poetry. We’ve engaged young people in graphic arts related to the benefits of nature. Bringing that creativity to bear has been a really nice part of the project.

Yale Climate Connections: When you dug into the evidence for the health chapter, what were the biggest takeaways or trends you saw?

Frumkin: The first key message is that, in general, nature contact is good for people; it’s health-promoting. The second is that those benefits are unequally distributed across society. Some of us have much better or easier access to nature than others. It’s an equity issue, because poor people and people of color disproportionately tend to have less access to parks and high-quality park programming, through the legacies of redlining and other historical trends.

But it’s not just that conventional form of equity that’s important. People with disabilities have difficulty accessing natural places. Older people have difficulty because too many parks lack accessible trails and shade, and children often lack access because safe, easy access to green space is rare in many communities.

Another trend is more screen time and less green time. People are spending less time outdoors. On the other hand, there are some emerging technologies that may facilitate nature contact, such as Merlin [the birdsong identification app], which may help deepen people’s appreciation of nature, and there’s reason to think that being more familiar with it deepens nature connectedness.

Four takeaways about health and nature from the Nature Record

• Nature contact is broadly good for human health.
• Those benefits are unequally distributed – by race, income, age, and disability.
• Long-term trends, such as rising screen time and falling green time, are reshaping how people benefit – for better and worse.
• Evidence-based interventions, like well-designed park programming, can reliably strengthen nature’s health benefits.

Yale Climate Connections: If the evidence that nature helps is solid, how much do we actually know about why – and about how much nature is enough?

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Frumkin: One of the most interesting parts of this is that although we have pretty solid evidence that nature contact benefits health, we know precious little about how it works. So you may walk through a forest and benefit from seeing the natural beauty of the forest. We have lab evidence that T cells do better after contact with natural compounds than they otherwise would. It may be that the benefit comes from the fact that you’re walking through the forest with friends, and social contacts in natural settings are soothing and restorative. It may be that natural settings call on us just to get out there and take a walk, and the physical activity is a really effective promoter of good health.

Not knowing the pathways and mechanisms of benefits makes it a little difficult to prescribe. And we don’t know a lot about the varieties of nature and which ones are more or less effective. Do you need trees, or do shrubs do the trick? Do you need immersion, or viewing nature out the window? Do you need the real thing, or might virtual nature provide some of the same benefits? Do you need to get out every day, or does a few times a week suffice? So these are a lot of questions we still need to try to answer.

The potential benefits of nature contact are strong, much less expensive than pharmaceuticals, free of side effects, and don’t need to be prescribed by a licensed healthcare provider. The cost-benefit implications are potentially enormous if we get it right and understand best how to optimize those benefits.

Yale Climate Connections: As a physician, I hear a real fear of nature from patients: ticks and mosquito-borne disease, allergies, wildfire smoke, and extreme weather – and climate change is heightening those risks. How do you balance nature’s benefits against these threats?

Frumkin: Rarely in life can you eliminate risk altogether, but you can manage risk.

The risks of being outside: Well, there’s a risk of sunburn – but we can manage that risk with sunblock and with protective clothing. The risk of ticks – that’s a real risk. But we can manage that risk: inspecting ourselves after we’ve been in tick-infested areas and using bug repellent to keep the ticks away. So for each risk, we can reduce the risk by managing it well.

Yale Climate Connections: How do you hope communities will use the Nature Record?

Frumkin: So for communities, here’s an example. Almost every community in the country now has a housing shortage, and there is a need to build more housing. And to do that in economically and environmentally efficient ways generally means density. Density can collide with protecting nature. This report will make it clear that balancing the protection of nature with fulfillment of other human needs – like housing – is a key set of trade-offs we need to tackle and be explicit about.

Using the insights from this report, design strategies that both protect nature and provide nearby nature contact and also provide housing and transportation – which means in many cases nonmotorized transportation, active transport, cycling, and walking. The design of communities needs to take into account all these needs: environment, human, and equity.

Yale Climate Connections: Hospitals and health systems have a natural connection to health, not only through the care they provide but also through the spaces they create. As they consider land use decisions, including parking needs and opportunities for green space, what should they keep in mind?

Frumkin: Two thoughts. One is that we know a lot about how to build green, and that means the buildings themselves, with biophilic principles. It means the environmental performance of the buildings – what are called green buildings – and it means the situation of buildings in lots, protecting nearby nature. That’s a good way to build; it’s economical. There may be increased up-front costs, but they’re generally recoverable in a short number of years, and they deliver health benefits to patients and staff.

The second message is that nonprofit hospitals are required to carry out community health needs assessments and to invest in community health based on the findings of those assessments.

Nature deficit is a community health need, and in my view ought to be a part of every community health needs assessment. To the extent that it’s documented, hospitals can consider investing funds in local parks, either for developing parks or planning programming in parks that we know improve community health.

I would urge hospitals to think about nature deficit as one of those community health needs and then consider investments in nature contact for people in their catchment areas as a means of promoting public health.

Yale Climate Connections: Finally, what makes you most hopeful?

Frumkin: For me, one of the biggest potential sources of despair is the polarization and ideological hysteria that seems to be sweeping our country and many others as well. But this topic offers a counterbalance, because across the political spectrum people love the natural world and appreciate it.

Hunters and anglers and campers may be far right politically, but they have common cause with environmentalists who may be on the political left. There aren’t too many domains that can unite us across the ideological divide that bedevils the country now, but this is one.

I think the fact that we’re approaching this entire Nature Record in an apolitical way, and framing it in terms of benefits that all Americans can enjoy, gives me hope that we may be able to help overcome one of the biggest challenges we face.

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Do solar plants require backup from fossil fuels?

Solar plants require backup, but it doesn’t have to be from fossil fuels.

A combination of renewables, energy storage, and long-distance transmission can reliably power the majority of the U.S. without relying on coal, oil, or natural gas, as one 2017 research paper describes. Renewables like wind can generate under cloudy conditions, while surplus solar from brighter weather can be stored in utility-scale batteries for rainy days. Additionally, transmission from neighboring regions can assist solar capacity drops.

The Department of Energy and Princeton have outlined decarbonization scenarios projecting expansion of solar and decrease in fossil fuels while maintaining reliability. Analysis of real-world outcomes has found that renewables growth has actually outperformed projections.

California is an example of improving reliability while transitioning from fossil fuels to solar. From 2015 to 2025, in-state generation saw a jump in solar reliance from 8% to 27%, while natural gas dropped from 60% to 36%.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

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Sources

The Electricity Journal Reliably integrating variable renewables: Moving grid flexibility resources from models to results

The Alliance for Climate Transition Institute Solar energy requires 100% fossil fuel backup

Princeton University Net-Zero America

University of Virginia Decarbonization by 2050: Are We on Track?

California Energy Commission CA Electric Generation 2001-25

California Energy Commission California Energy Leaders Report Progress on Grid Reliability Ahead of Summer 2026

MIT The Future of Energy Storage

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

A graph has been making the rounds on social media showing the average number of days per weather station above 95F, 100F, and 105F across the contiguous US since 1895. It comes from CFACT analyst Chris Martz, drawing on raw data from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network daily dataset (GHCNd), and it shows the 1930s towering over everything since. The implication is that extreme heat in the US is nothing new, and that all the recent fuss about record temperatures is overblown.

It is a compelling figure. The 1930s Dust Bowl really was an extraordinary period of extreme heat in the US, and no amount of correction for changes in measurement techniques over time makes it go away. But the graph is also a case study in why you cannot naively count threshold exceedances in raw daily station data and call it a climate record. Its results rest on two well-documented thermometer problems that artificially depress modern hot day counts, plus a station network that happens to be oversampled where the Dust Bowl happened.

Reproducing the viral chart

To start with, let’s reproduce the figure properly. Rather than averaging whatever stations happen to be reporting in a given year (the station network grew from a few hundred stations in 1895 to many thousands today, with big shifts in where they are located), I selected the 543 GHCNd stations in the contiguous US with long, near-continuous maximum temperature records over the full 1895-2025 period,1 gridded them to 2x2 degree cells, and computed an area-weighted national average.

Average number of days per year at or above 95°F, 100°F, and 105°F over the contiguous US, 1895–2025, from 543 long-record GHCN-Daily stations (raw, unadjusted TMAX), averaged on a 2°×2° grid with cos(latitude) area weighting.

Here we see the same basic story as the viral version: a huge spike in the 1930s (1936 alone averaged 33 days at or above 95F across these stations), elevated values through the mid-1950s, and nothing since that comes close. So the Martz figure is not fabricated, and its shape is not an artifact of the changing station network. To be fair to its author, counting hot days in raw data really does produce this picture.

The problem is what “raw” means here.

Two thermometer problems, both pointing the same way

Raw sounds virtuous, like unfiltered honesty. But the US cooperative observer network has changed in two important ways over the past century, and both changes bias hot day counts downward in recent decades relative to earlier ones.

The first is time of observation bias. Volunteer observers read and reset their max/min thermometers once a day. In the early 20th century most did so in the late afternoon, near the hottest part of the day. An afternoon reset means a very hot afternoon can get counted twice: once for the day it happened, and again the next day if the following afternoon is cooler, since the thermometer still holds yesterday’s peak. Over the 20th century the network gradually shifted to morning observations (better for measuring precipitation), which does not double count heat. Vose et al (2003) documented how this shift alone imparts a spurious cooling trend of a few tenths of a degree in US records, and the double counting directly inflates hot day counts at afternoon-observing stations.

The second is the thermometer switch. In the mid-1980s NOAA replaced liquid-in-glass thermometers in wooden Cotton Region Shelters with electronic maximum-minimum temperature sensors (MMTS) at most cooperative stations. Quayle et al (1991) showed the new sensors read maximum temperatures around 0.4C (0.7F) cooler than the old shelters. This produced a one-time step change at thousands of stations that landed right at the start of the modern warming era. When your threshold is a hard cutoff like 95F, a step down of nearly half a degree C removes a lot of days.

Homogenization algorithms (like NOAA’s pairwise method, Menne and Williams 2009, or the Berkeley Earth approach, Rohde et al 2013) detect and correct these breakpoints by comparing each station to its neighbors. Our 2016 paper validated these adjustments against the pristine, purpose-built US Climate Reference Network and found they perform well. While NOAA does not have daily homogenized data (they only provide monthly homogenized data), Berkeley Earth does. So let’s compare the raw hot day count to the same metric computed from Berkeley Earth’s homogenized daily maximum temperature fields.

Days per year at or above 95°F over the contiguous US. Top: raw GHCN-Daily data from 543 long-record stations, gridded and area-weighted. Bottom: Berkeley Earth homogenized daily TMAX (1°×1°, area-weighted over CONUS), with the dashed line showing the same calculation restricted to the grid cells containing the long-record stations. Absolute values differ because gridded fields smooth out local extremes; the shapes are the meaningful comparison.

The two datasets agree that the 1930s were exceptional. Where they disagree is the modern era: in the homogenized data, recent decades rival the Dust Bowl years CONUS-wide, with 2011 (16.1 days) actually edging out 1936 (14.0 days) as the biggest year in the Berkeley Earth series.

We can make the comparison cleaner by putting each series relative to its own 1951-1980 average:

Days ≥95°F, 11-year running means, with each series shown relative to its own 1951–1980 average. Red: raw GHCN-Daily long-record stations. Blue solid: Berkeley Earth homogenized daily TMAX over the full CONUS. Blue dashed: Berkeley Earth restricted to the grid cells sampled by the long-record station network.

The raw and homogenized series track each other closely for the first 85 years, through the Dust Bowl peak and the cool 1960s and 70s. Then, right around 1980 (just when the MMTS transition began), they split. The homogenized data rises to around 1.4 times its mid-century baseline while the raw data stays flat at roughly 1.0. The raw data does not exaggerate the 1930s, but rather erases the last 40 years of increases in extreme heat.

The dashed and solid blue lines in the figure are also worth a closer look. The dashed line averages the Berkeley Earth data over only the 130 grid cells where our long-record stations actually sit; comparing it to the raw series is the fair like-for-like test, since the places are the same and data adjustments are the only difference. The solid line averages over the whole country, and the gap between the two exposes a sampling problem rather than a data problem. Century-old stations cluster in the Midwest and East, which is precisely where the 1930s heat was centered and where extreme daytime heat has increased the least since. Averaged over the long-lived station locations, even in homogenized data, puts the 1930s roughly 45% above the last two decades. If we average over the full contiguous US, however, that gap shrinks to about 10%.

Locations of long-lived weather stations used in the reproducing the viral Martz figure. Note that these tend to oversample the Midwest region where dust bowl temperature extremes were most pronounced. A Dust Bowl story, not a national one

There is a second, subtler issue with interpreting the viral graph: geography. Long-record stations are heavily concentrated in the Midwest and East (only 116 of our 543, around a fifth, sit west of 100W), which happens to be exactly where the 1930s heat was centered. Let’s break the country into NOAA’s nine US climate regions and look at each one separately, using the spatially complete Berkeley Earth data.

Days per year at or above 95°F for each of NOAA’s nine US climate regions, 1895–2023, from Berkeley Earth homogenized gridded daily TMAX (1°×1°), area-weighted within each region. Thin lines are annual values; bold lines are 11-year running means. Note that the y-axis scale differs by region.

The Dust Bowl turns out to be a story about three regions. In the Upper Midwest the 1930s averaged around 15 times as many 95F days as the last two decades (3.4 vs 0.2 per year), in the Northern Rockies and Plains around 9 times (2.8 vs 0.3), and in the Ohio Valley around 4 times (8.7 vs 2.1), with 1936 the record year in all three.

Everywhere else the present rivals or beats the past: the South is essentially tied (22.4 days in the 1930s vs 22.7 over 2000-2023, with 2011 the biggest year in the record), while the Southeast (14.7 vs 11.1 days), Southwest (4.9 vs 3.9), and West (4.6 vs 3.6) all see more 95F days now than in the 1930s, with the two western regions peaking in 2020. (The remaining two regions, the Northeast and Northwest, average less than one 95F day per year throughout the record, too few for meaningful comparisons.)

The mid-century spike in that average comes almost entirely from three regions in the middle of the country. This makes physical sense: the Dust Bowl heat was tied to a specific regional catastrophe, a multi-year drought amplified by human-induced land degradation (Cook et al 2009), with bare, desiccated soils driving daytime temperatures to levels those same fields have not approached since. A record set during an ecological disaster in one part of the country is not evidence that the whole country, much less the planet, was hotter. The national chart is really being driven by a distinct regional anomaly.2

Meanwhile, the thermometers all agree it is warming

Finally, it is worth stepping back from the hottest afternoons of the year, which are a noisy, bias-sensitive sliver of the temperature record, and looking at what US temperatures as a whole are doing. The figure below shows annual average maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for the contiguous US from NOAA’s homogenized nClimDiv dataset.

Contiguous US annual average daily maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and mean (TAvg) temperature anomalies relative to 1901–2000, from NOAA nClimDiv, 1895–2025. Thin lines are annual values; bold lines are 11-year running means.

All three are unambiguous. Since 1970, maximum temperatures have warmed at 0.52F per decade, minimums at 0.51F per decade, and the average at 0.51F per decade (all p < 0.0001), with the last decade roughly 2F above the 20th century baseline. The 1930s show up here too, but as a modest bump in maximum temperatures far below present (as the dust bowl event was largely limited to summer TMax temperatures, with a much smaller effect on the remainder of the year). Extreme daytime heat in summer is one of the places where the US warming signal is weakest (a real and interesting scientific result, related in part to agricultural intensification and irrigation in the Midwest (Mueller et al 2016), but it is not representative of the climate system as a whole.

Zooming all the way out

One last piece of context. The contiguous US covers less than 2% of the Earth’s surface, and as we saw above, even within the US the Dust Bowl signal is regional. So what does the very same chart look like for the planet as a whole? The figure below reproduces the design of the viral graph (days at or above 95F, 100F, and 105F) using the Berkeley Earth daily data over global land. To avoid mixing climate changes with changes in the locations we measure (global station coverage grew from under 40% of land area in the 1890s to essentially complete today), I restrict the average to the grid cells with continuous century-long records, covering 42% of global land.3

Average number of days per year at or above 95°F, 100°F, and 105°F across global land, 1895–2023, from Berkeley Earth homogenized gridded daily TMAX (1°×1°), area-weighted by cos(latitude) and land fraction. Restricted to grid cells with complete data in at least 90% of years over 1895–2023 (42% of global land area), so that changing station coverage does not affect the trend.

Globally there is no 1930s spike at all: 1936, the year that towers over the US record, comes in at 15.1 days at or above 95F, less than a day above the surrounding years. The Dust Bowl, extraordinary as it was in Kansas, barely registers when averaged over the world’s land. Instead, hot days hold roughly steady until around 1980 and then climb: days at or above 95F are up around 70% between the early 20th century (1895-1924) and the last decade (12.8 to 22.1 per year), days at or above 100F have more than doubled (3.0 to 7.5), and days at or above 105F have nearly quintupled (0.3 to 1.6). The hotter the threshold, the faster the rise, which is exactly what you expect when a whole temperature distribution shifts upward. All ten of the warmest years by the 95F metric have occurred since 1998, and the six most recent years in the series (2018-2023) are all among them.

The US Midwest is one of the few places on Earth where the hottest days of the mid-20th century still stand; picking it as your yardstick for global warming is, to put it charitably, a choice.

So what are the takeaways here?

First, the Dust Bowl was real, and it remains the benchmark for multi-year extreme daytime heat in the central US, in adjusted and unadjusted data alike. Anyone claiming the 1930s heat is purely an artifact of bad data is simply wrong.

Second, it was a regional phenomenon. Break the country into NOAA’s nine climate regions and the 1930s is only exceptional in only three of them (the Upper Midwest, the Northern Rockies and Plains, and the Ohio Valley, at roughly 4 to 15 times recent levels). The four regions where hot days are the most common (the South, Southeast, Southwest, and West) all match or exceed the Dust Bowl today, with record years of 2011 and 2020, not 1936.

Third, raw daily data is the wrong tool for this question. Time of observation changes and the 1980s switch to MMTS sensors both suppress modern hot day counts relative to the past, and the raw and homogenized series diverge almost exactly when the instrument transition happened. In homogenized data, recent decades rival the 1930s even averaged nationally.

Fourth, hot days above a fixed threshold are a narrow and noisy way to look at the data. The overall US warming trend (around 0.5F per decade since 1970 in max, min, and mean temperatures) is robust in every dataset, raw or adjusted, satellite or surface. And globally, days above 95F have been climbing steadily for a century, with no Dust Bowl bump at all: the central US is one of the few spots on the planet where the mid-20th century still holds the record for extreme daytime heat.

The viral chart is built from real measurements, and the heat it shows was real too. But it takes a regional catastrophe, fails to account for changes in instruments and observation times, and presents the result as a national climate verdict. Accounting for the thermometers and the geography, and the US looks a lot like the rest of the planet: the hottest days on record are increasingly the ones we are living through now.

I’ve included a more detailed writeup of the methods and code to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

1 Specifically: stations whose GHCNd TMAX record spans at least 1900 through 2024, keeping station-years where at least 80% of April-October days have a valid, quality-controlled observation, and keeping stations valid in at least 85% of years over 1895-2025. Hot day counts are averaged within 2°×2° grid cells and combined with cos(latitude) area weighting over the 130 cells with near-complete records. The results are insensitive to these choices: stricter completeness screens shrink the network but leave the series essentially unchanged (details and robustness checks are available in the methods writeup on my GitHub). A map of the station network is also available in the repo; note that coverage is much denser east of 100W, a point that becomes important later in the post.

2 This also explains most of the difference between the dashed and solid blue lines in the “days ≥95°F, 11-year running means” figure. The long-record station network oversamples the region where the 1930s were most extreme and undersamples the South and West where recent warming has added the most 95F days.

3 This matters a lot. Computed naively over whatever area has data each year, the global days above 95F triple from ~12 to ~37 days per year, but much of that rise is an artifact of hot regions (the Sahara, the tropics, interior Australia) entering the dataset over time. On the fixed network the increase is a still-substantial ~75% (from ~13 to ~22 days per year). The fixed-coverage region is disproportionately Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land, so this series should be read as “hot days where we have century-long records” rather than a true global land average.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 19, 2026 thru Sat, July 25, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• Insane': Republicans Push To Punish Canada For Wildfires “We will not tolerate this incompetence,” vowed Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who may not understand how climate change works. Huffington Post, Jennifer Bendery, Jul 17, 2026.
• UN to list more sites as 'in danger' from conflict or climate change Phys.org, Simon Valmary and Celia Lebur, Jul 18, 2026.
• As mosquito ranges expand, better monitoring is key to preventing disease Monitoring is expensive and labor intensive. But it helps public health officials stop outbreaks. Ars Technica, Madeline Shaw, Jul 19, 2026.
• Climate Scientists Say The Dice Are Loaded. Here's Why "Just have a Think" on Youtube, Dave Borlace, July 19, 2026.
• Opinion: Is the Colorado River in a climate doom loop? We caused a problem, and our efforts to fix the problem make it worse Colorado Newsline, Gary Wockner, Jul 20, 2026.
• Rising seas magnify the dangers of coastal Georgia`s industrial past The state’s first Superfund research center is looking into how climate change is resurfacing industrial pollution. Grist, Emily Jones, Jul 20, 2026.
• Extreme heat morphs into a major economic shock for an unprepared Europe Europe’s status as the planet’s fastest-warming continent is becoming a serious drag on its economic prospects. The Business Standard, Laura Millan, Jul 21, 2026.
• What Happens to Our Brains in a Warming World? In this era of advancing AI, when everyone is debating the nature of 'intelligence,' we have forgotten that our brains run well only within a narrow band of temperature. What happens to the brain once that temperature threshold is crossed is often overlooked in discussions of climate change. State of the Planet, Marco Tedesco and Burcin Ikiz, Jul 22, 2026.
• The year climate change came for the Tour de France Record heat, wildfire threats, and an unprecedented stage modification highlighted the growing challenge global warming poses to endurance sports. Grist, Tik Root, Jul 23, 2026.
• Climate change to obliterate $1.5 trillion in U.S. home values Climate change will wipe out about $1.47 trillion in U.S. home values over the next three decades and hasten economic gaps in U.S. communities, a report released on Monday finds. CBS News, Kate Gibson , Jul 23, 2026.
• This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’ Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights. Nature, James Dinneen, Jul 23, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)

• How Companies Have Abandoned Their Climate Goals and Let Themselves Off the Hook Big business made big promises about saving the planet. Following through hasn’t been easy. New York Times, David Gelles, Jul 17, 2026.
• Trump threatens new Canada tariffs over fires sending 'filthy' air into US cities US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on Canada after hundreds of wildfires have left much of the northern US covered by a blanket of smoke. BBC News, Nadine Yousif, Jul 18, 2026.
• Majority of US voters link extreme weather to climate crisis, study finds Top Democrat says findings show public ‘way ahead of the politicians’ as Trump dismisses global heating as ‘hoax’ The Guardian, Dharna Noor with graphics by Andrew Witherspoon, Jul 19, 2026.
• Trump Lashes Out at National Academies of Sciences Over Climate Guide For Judges Trump claimed without evidence that the manual was “fraudulent, biased, and misleading.” Inside Climate News, Dennis Pillion, July 20, 2026.
• Q&A: What the EU`s carbon market review means for climate action The European Commission has put forward new plans to cut emissions under the EU carbon market more slowly, from 2031 onwards. Carbon Brief, Orla Dwyer, Jul 20, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (3 articles)

• Why Earth is reflecting less sunlight Climate change is first and foremost an emissions problem. It’s also fast becoming a reflection problem. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Jul 21, 2026.
• The climate crisis onscreen: 14 films that made waves Climate-themed films matter more than ever as the Trump administration weakens environmental protections. Here are some of the best and most meaningful ones. Capital & Main, Alex Demyanenko, Jul 22, 2026.
• Trump calls climate change a hoax. Americans aren`t buying it New polling finds broad agreement that the climate crisis is worsening heat, floods, and wildfires. Mother Jones, Dharna Noor, Jul 24, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (3 articles)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2026 A regular weekly survey of climate-related research from academic, government and NGO sources. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jul 16, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30 2026 Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jul 23, 2026.
• France orders total evacuation of Cap Ferret peninsula as wildfire spreads ‘Unpredictable’ blaze forces evacuation of holiday spot Cap Ferret and Spain declares emergency over fires near Madrid The Guardian, Jon Henley in Paris and Sam Jones in Madrid, Jul 24, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• Lake Powell shrinks and marinas must adapt “The Colorado River is in full-blown crisis mode,” said John Berggren, regional policy manager with Western Resource Advocates, an environmental nonprofit. AP News, DORANY PINEDA and JOHN LOCHER, Jul 22, 2026.
• Air conditioning is not enough to keep people cool — can scientists find an alternative? Air conditioning can end up as a climate maladaptation due to installation and operation expenses as well as serious side-effects, but advances in methods to passively cool buildings hint at solutions without drawbacks. Nature, Rachel Fieldhouse, Jul 22, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 12, 2026 thru Sat, July 18, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jul 19, 2026.
• Oil Firms Knew for Decades of Methane’s Danger to Planet, Documents Suggest The companies knew they were releasing more of the greenhouse gas than they publicly reported, according to industry files cited by the Center for Climate Integrity, an activist organization. NYT, Hiroko Tabuchi, Jul 21, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Trump Attacks National Academies Over Climate Chapter in Judges` Manual The president joined Republican officials who slammed the National Academies of Sciences for a chapter about climate science in an educational guide for judges. NYT, Karen Zraick, Jul 20, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

•  Hot days, cold thermometers Why a viral graph on US days above 95F is misleading and overstates regional warmth The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 22, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Recent analyses have suggested that the decadal rate of Arctic winter sea-ice extent decline weakened in the early 2020s, with 20-y trends becoming statistically insignificant. Here we show from more up-to-date observations that the exceptionally low 2025 and 2026 ice extent winters reversed this picture, with sea-ice extent during the growth and peak phases returning to record lows and 20-y decline trends becoming significant again. Further analysis of CMIP6 model analogues shows that the observed 2025 decline was unusual but physically plausible under comparable Arctic warming, and is more consistent with ongoing winter sea ice reduction than with a return to values seen in the early 2020s.

As the planet heats, public doubt grows: The social structure behind rising climate change scepticism in Germany, Gies & Deutschmann, Global Environmental Change

In 2024, global heating exceeded 1.5 °C for the first time. Paradoxically, as the climate crisis becomes ever more evident, climate change scepticism (CCS) has recently grown (rather than declined) in Germany, a high-emissions country with enormous responsibility. Past research has not systematically studied which social groups and characteristics are behind this shift. We address this gap by examining the social structure of rising CCS in Germany, taking its multidimensionality into account. Drawing on GESIS Panel data that is representative of the German adult population, we detect a strong and consistent increase across a comprehensive set of 14 CCS indicators between 2022 and 2023. We find that this rise in scepticism is not driven by a small and ‘loud’ minority but rather constitutes a mass phenomenon: on average across all items, CCS increased among 59% of respondents, and for 93% of respondents at least one indicator rose. Regression models reveal a complex picture with socio-structural effects depending on the dimension of CCS, but right-wing political orientation, government distrust, and hierarchical worldviews are most consistently associated with increases in CCS. Overall, political attitudes – which are flexible and have shifted substantially in recent years – relate far more strongly to rising CCS than stable socio-structural factors like income or gender. These findings demonstrate an urgent need to restore trust in political institutions and to foster inclusive, participatory climate dialogue to secure broad public support for the transition towards a carbon-neutral society.

Climate Obstruction in the Digital Far-Right: Mapping the Climate Countermovement in German-, Danish-, and Swedish-Speaking Digital Information Environments, Henriksen et al., Environmental Communication

This article examines how climate obstruction narratives circulate in far-right digital information environments in Austria, Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. We analyzed 41 million social media posts published across multiple social media platforms from 2019 to 2022. Using multilingual text classification and actor–source mapping, we identified which posts contained climate obstruction narratives, which actors produced them, and which sources they cited. The results revealed three configurations. In the German-speaking environment (Germany and Austria), obstruction is mainly driven by far-right citizen accounts embedded in a hyperpartisan media ecosystem. In Sweden, far-right grassroots actors coexist with climate-focused organizations that bridge mainstream and alternative sources. In Denmark, obstruction is comparatively mainstream-embedded and anchored in organizations and citizen groups drawing on legacy news. The article discusses how national media systems, political fields, and far-right actor constellations make certain forms of obstruction communicatively viable and thereby shape the digital climate countermovement.

Mapping climate change coverage: Causes, consequences, and solutions in German news media, 2010–2024, Dablander et al., Energy Research & Social Science

The media shapes how political leaders and the public understand the causes, impacts, and solutions to climate change. Here, we provide the most extensive analysis to date of how German news media report on climate change between 2010 and 2024. We develop and validate a methodology based on large language models to analyze the contents of over 50,000 articles from seven major newspapers across the political spectrum. We found that aspects relating to causes, impacts, and mitigation were all covered substantially more often than aspects relating to adaptation. While most articles identified climate change as human-caused, coverage about causes was dominated by fossil fuels, with agriculture, overconsumption, carbon inequality, and economic growth rarely mentioned. Left-leaning outlets more frequently reported that climate change is human-caused, highlighted fossil fuels as a cause, emphasized the need to reduce their use, and discussed systemic and social drivers more often. Coverage patterns have remained largely stable over time, except for growing attention to net-zero targets and carbon taxes. Our findings highlight opportunities for more comprehensive climate journalism to better support public understanding and policy debate by reflecting the scientific consensus and the full range of societal transformations needed to address climate change.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts, National Research Council, The National Academies Press

Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events. Even as those trends become clearer, extreme event attribution (EEA) seeks to assess the degree to which climate change contributed to any specific event. EEA studies provide information that can be useful for public understanding, planning and risk management, policy and legal contexts, and scientific research. The authors evaluate the state of EEA science, updating a National Academies report published in 2016. The authors also assess the emerging field of extreme event impact attribution (EEIA). The number of EEA studies has grown substantially over the past decade as scientific tools, observational datasets, and methods have advanced, enabling attribution studies to be completed within days of an event. However, challenges remain, including limited model capabilities for small-scale regional events, representation of key atmospheric processes, and attribution of compounding, cascading, and record-breaking events. The authors examine these advances and remaining challenges and provide recommendations for strengthening attribution science, improving collaboration with local experts and stakeholders, and advancing research, data, and modeling capabilities worldwide.

Early Warnings: Government Knowledge of Climate Change and Legal Responsibility for Climate Harm, Lindsay Fenlock and Nikki Reisch, Center for International Environmental Law

The authors examine publicly available government records, scientific evidence, and historical archives to document when major emitting States became aware of the causes and foreseeable consequences of climate change. They demonstrate that many governments understood the risks decades earlier than they have claimed, strengthening the evidentiary foundation for climate litigation, human rights, and climate advocacy, and the implementation of the International Court of Justice climate advisory opinion. By tracing the history of government knowledge, the report provides a critical resource for advancing climate accountability and ensuring that high-emitting States are held responsible for failing to prevent the climate crisis. 284 articles in 105 journals by 2495 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A 21-Year Global Daytime Satellite Climatology of Cirrus Cloud Cover and Its Links to Upper-Tropospheric Conditions and Aviation Over Europe and the North Atlantic, Huu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70506

A Reconciled Satellite Record Reveals a Negative Low Cloud Feedback Over the Past 47 Years, Cesana & Arouf, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124158

Distinct Characteristics of Contiguous Heatwaves Across Terrestrial, Marine, and Coastal Environments, Bekris et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118531

Explaining the Equatorial Pacific Thermocline Response to Climate Change With a Model Hierarchy, Luongo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023559

Heating the land cools the eastern and equatorial Pacific, Günther et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aeb7004

How Clear-Sky Spectral Overlap Shapes Radiation in Cloudy Atmospheres, Czarnecki & Pincus, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0589.1

Marine Heatwave Imprints on Salinity in the Northwest Atlantic, Stamper et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124293

Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming, Roewer et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-1195-2026

On the Utility of the Transient Climate Response, Jeevanjee et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121354

Post-1990s Warming of Circumpolar Deep Water Off West Antarctica and Its Drivers, Damini et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023856

Projected Arctic Ocean Warming Accompanied by a Restructuring of the Overturning at the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening, Oldenburg et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0735.1

The remarkable inefficiency of stratocumulus, Hernandez et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9337-2026

Trans-basin linkages prolong Northwestern Pacific marine heatwaves through a circumglobal wave pattern, Zhao & Yu, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz4647

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate and Tropospheric Oxidizing Capacity, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-090307 21 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Climate Warming Intensifies Cascading Risks Along the Heatwave-Drought-Wildfire Hazard Chain in Northeast Asia, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70507

Decadal Shifts Towards Higher Riverine Silicon Relative to Nitrogen and Phosphorus Across High Latitudes, Carey et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008926

Distribution characteristics of newly formed glacial lakes across High Mountain Asia during 2000–2020, YIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.007

Drought, heatwave, and fires: The impact on air quality during São Paulo's record-breaking fire season in 2024, Silva et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103045

Frequent, Intense and Prolonged Human-Perceived Heat Waves Over the Arabian Peninsula in Recent Decades, Ullah et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70510

Increasing Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the North China Plain, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046567

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Forster et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Forster et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026

Precipitation Over the Contiguous United States Is Coming From Farther Away Than in the Past, Aerenson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122565

Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2614134123

Time series forecasting of climate variables in three selected major cities in Nigeria, Ibrahim et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103014

Warming Trends in Basin-Scale Heatwaves Across Ethiopia: An Observational Analysis Using Crossing Theory, Gebremariam et al., International Journal of Climatology pdf 10.1002/joc.70477

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave on extremely hot summer over Northern Japan in 2023, Scientific Reports, 10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y 41 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A four-decade global Lagrangian air-parcel trajectory dataset for atmospheric moisture and heat analysis, Deman et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-4593-2026

Attribution of 2022 and 2023 extreme heat in China using conditional and unconditional frameworks, Zhang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100937

CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0: a global mosaic of regional, gridded, fossil and biofuel CO2 emission inventories, Urraca et al., TNO Repository Open Access pdf pmh:oai:oai-pmh.tno.nl:58273

FORMS: Forest Multiple Source height, wood volume, and biomass maps in France at 10 to 30 m resolution based on Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and GEDI data with a deep learning approach, Schwartz et al., HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Open Access pmh:oai:HAL:hal-04499509v1

Modeling air temperature from snow-buried sensors to refine multi-decadal warming trends in Great Basin National Park, NV, USA, Mazan et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-026-06436-z

Multidecadal reconstruction of terrestrial water storage changes by combining pre-GRACE satellite observations and climate data, Hacker et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-1747-2026

PolyU2025 SLA: a global 0.25°  ×  0.25° monthly sea-level anomaly dataset (1993–2024) determined from satellite altimetry for sea-level and climate change research, Yuan et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-4155-2026

Robustness of Radiative Kernel Methods in Reproducing Arctic Outgoing Longwave Radiation Variability, Liu & Jin, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046213

Satellite estimation of global air sea CO2 flux from 2000 to 2020, Ji et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-51215-5

Sensitivity of marine heatwaves metrics to SST products, focusing on the Tropical Pacific, Chevillard et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1213-2026

Temporal Heterogeneity of In Situ Ocean Observing Capacity Could Cause an Artificial Intensification of Extreme Warm Water Events Globally, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123043

Wikimpacts 1.0: a new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from Wikipedia, Li et al., Natural hazards and earth system sciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate, Weather and Climate Dynamics, 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024 39 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing projected changes in meteorological drought severity and frequency under future climate scenarios: Insights from CMIP5 Models in Eastern Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, Rubangakene et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000944

Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming, Santuy et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01482-w

Enhanced response of extreme compound events to cumulative CO2 emissions, Li et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10544-1

Future Shifts in Severe Storm Environments Revealed through Profile-Based Clustering, Hua, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20469719

Heterogeneous future Arctic Ocean primary productivity changes projected in CMIP6, Champiot-Bayard et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-4735-2026

Impact of Continental Configuration on the Climate Response to Greenhouse-Gas Forcing in an Idealized GCM, Bonan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120128

Irreversible climate changes driven by degree-years of temperature overshoot, Dickau et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03761-z

Responses of the Tropical Easterly Jet to Different Global Warming Patterns and Implications for Future Tropical Cyclone Activity, Zhan et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-026-5865-3

Small Tropical Islands Also Exposed to Extreme Humid Heat by the End of the Century, Bald et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122466

Spatiotemporal variation and future projections of air freezing and thawing indices in China–Mongolia–Russia under CMIP6 warming scenarios, JIANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.009

The Destination Earth digital twin for climate change adaptation, Doblas-Reyes et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02066-3 23 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Application and Evaluation of a Novel Python-Based Ensemble Data Assimilation Framework NEDAS in Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres pdf 10.1029/2025jd045622

Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance, Bimpiri et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-17-877-2026

CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities, McPartland et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026

CMIP7 data request: ocean and sea ice priorities and opportunities, Fox-Kemper et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026

Contribution of physical latent knowledge to the emulation of an atmospheric physics model: a study based on the LMDZ Atmospheric General Circulation Model, Crossouard et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-5907-2026

Developing Guidelines for working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP, Katzenberger et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-17-495-2026

Ecosystem climate sensitivities drive the divergence in aerosol-induced carbon uptake across CMIP6 models, Zhang et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-5363-2026

EXSoDOS 1.0: downscaling of weather extremes shifts for ensemble climate projections using ground-based measurements, reanalysis and stochastic modelling, Wouters et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026

Future Global Warming Constrained by Observed AMOC Strength, Hao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118802

Global climate modeling with improved precipitation characteristics by learning physics (GRIST-MPS v1.0) from global storm-resolving modeling, Wang et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-5553-2026

Hacking Kilometer-Scale Models: A Participative Model for Climate Information, Gettelman et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0183.1

North Atlantic influence reconciling model-observation discrepancy in the tropical Pacific warming pattern, Lin & Watanabe, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73763-0

Past, present, and future arctic radiative states simulated by Polar-WRF, Bertossa et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-3653-2026

Stratospheric Subtropical Transport Barriers in CESM1-WACCM and Observations: Climatology, Variability, and Trends, Ivaniha et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045069

The coupled Southern Ocean–Sea ice–Ice shelf Model (SOSIM v1.0): configuration and evaluation, Liu et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-2985-2026

The Influence of Tropopause Temperature Biases on Climate Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclones, Mahoney et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120545

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP2.0) for CMIP7, Kramer et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-4447-2026

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7), Vuuren et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026

Winter Arctic polynyas in CMIP6 models, Heuzé et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3643-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Comparison of three reanalysis-driven regional climate models over New Zealand: Climatology and extreme events, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8578 11 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

An improved 15-year record of ice sheet elevation from CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, Huang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115561

Brief communication: Temperature-driven shrinkage of a disappearing Himalayan glacier, Fujita & Kayastha, cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-4005-2026

Climate change induces rapid growth of dead ice in Asian glaciers, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.008

Increased Frequency, Duration, and Area of Winter Polynyas North of Greenland in a Warming Climate, Shu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121125

Increasing Winter Storminess in the Southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, and Its Impact on Land-Fast Sea-Ice, Radlwimmer et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123090

Learning to melt: Emulating Greenland surface melt from a polar RCM with machine learning, Schlager et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3313-2026

Mass changes of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet and peripheral glaciers, 2007–2021, Bernat et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3025-2026

Observation-constrained explainable reconstruction of Antarctic sea ice snow depth reveals strong regional asymmetry during 1993–2021, Cao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.008

Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2614134123

The Greenland GNSS Network (GNET): geodetic grade GNSS measurements of Greenland's 3D bedrock displacement from 1995–2025, Solgaard et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-5117-2026

Three Decades of Glacial Changes on the Western Antarctic Peninsula Revealed by Historical Aerial and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery, Thota et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122660

Unveiling the Role of Sea-Ice Loss in Early-20th-Century Arctic Warming, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121178

Wintertime evolution of landfast ice stability in Alaska from InSAR, Einhorn & Mahoney, cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3683-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Stability of Ice Shelves and Ice Cliffs in a Changing Climate, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 10.1146/annurev-earth-040522-122817 38 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

PolyU2025 SLA: a global 0.25°  ×  0.25° monthly sea-level anomaly dataset (1993–2024) determined from satellite altimetry for sea-level and climate change research, Yuan et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-4155-2026

Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300, Palmer et al., Explore Bristol Research pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/62032aef-becd-4ddc-a902-ff39b2c8a275

Sea level rise and fall north of Greenland reorganize Arctic freshwater export to North Atlantic, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75610-8

The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150, Völz et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74042-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108864 14 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Climate-extreme-driven genesis of a cretaceous dinosaur Lagerstätte, Fanti et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105589

Continental-scale fern savannah wildfires during end-Triassic greenhouse warming, Hollaar et al., Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) Open Access pmh:oai:nottingham-repository.worktribe.com:66232704

Dynamic Deglacial Evolution of Interior Seaways and Ice Streams in the Weddell Sea Embayment, Bollen et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2026pa005438

Ice core nitrogen isotopes archive dramatic changes in West Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning, King et al., Climate of the past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-22-1291-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 4.2 ka BP event in western Anatolia: Tracing the impact of climatic change, The Holocene, 10.1177/09596836241259774 4 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Adaptational lag at high elevations depends on life stage in a California wildflower, Quarles et al., Journal of Ecology pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70379

Additive Dominance and Context-Dependent Nonlinearities in Soil Greenhouse Gas Responses to Concurrent Global Change, Ding et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009164

Biogeography of Stress: Graded and Threshold Phenological Responses in European Beech-Dominated Forests Under Disruptive Heatwaves, Cesaretti et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70986

Body Size Decline in an Endangered Bat Is Associated With Climate Change at a Continental Scale but Varies by Phenophase and Region, Zuben et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70983

Climate change is likely to negatively affect a marine apex predator (Steno bredanensis, Cetacea) and its prey on the coast of Brazil, Ferreira et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108065

Climate Crisis in the Mediterranean Hotspot: Conservation Challenges for Endangered Salamanders in Southern Türkiye, Ananymous, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.19074814

Climate physical risks, ecological resilience, and spatial spillovers: evidence from China, He et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1879596

Climate-driven distribution dynamics of the teak defoliator Hyblaea puera under current and future climate scenarios, Mahanta et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1843989

Climate-induced forest destabilization and shrub stabilization in Africa, Cheng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105627

Climate-Driven Changes in Resources Shift Reproductive Season and Effort of Insectivorous Montane Bird Species, Whelan & Garfinkel, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71013

Climatic stress and species interactions shape tree vitality decline in Iberian pine species, Aguirre et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111333

Current and future thermal habitat suitability of the European clam Ruditapes decussatus (Linnaeus, 1758) in Mediterranean coastal lagoons, Palmas et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108139

Differential responses of trees to heatwaves in a desert-oasis ecotone: the role of isohydric/anisohydric stomatal regulation, Huang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111362

Diurnal cycles of cloud and rainfall over North-East Queensland during the coral bleaching season, Chapman et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-1265-2026

Effects of ocean acidification on radular tooth material properties in Littorina littorea (Gastropoda, Mollusca), Krings et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108096

Global analysis suggests nitrogen deposition as an underestimated driver of vegetation greening, Trepel et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08631

Here Comes the Heat: Urban Warming Increases Abundance but Compromises Fitness in the Common Woodlouse, Jame et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73654

Intact coastal nursery rearing amid climate-driven phenological shifts in threatened salmon, Munsch et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70355

Long-Term Population Monitoring Reveals Changes in Mesocarnivore Occupancy in Response to Severe Drought, Tucker et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.73960

Mass flowering of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica after 2022 record-breaking marine heatwaves, a Pan-Mediterranean study, Astruch et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03631-8

Masting Breakdown in European Beech Reduces Fitness Benefits of Masting, Partly Explained by Climate Change, Jantzen et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73809

Metabolic trade-offs shape acute thermal responses in the marine predator Rapana venosa, Xu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108249

No apparent impact of moderate temperature increase on growth and fecundity in the sea star Asterias rubens, Bourg & Keraudran, Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108072

Ocean acidification influence on Cymodocea nodosa seedling development, Crobu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108272

Past Acropora mortality on the Great Barrier Reef linked to climate variability and anthropogenic impacts, Clark et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03800-9

Projecting seasonal and future thermal suitability of the invasive and commercially valuable Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (A. Adams and Reeve, 1850) in a warming Mediterranean sea, Chiappi et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108263

Range-edge asymmetry in growth responses of English yew to climate warming: Stronger responses near the northern limit, Camarero et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111354

Seabird range contraction and dispersal under climate change, Avaria-Llautureo et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02655-4

Shifts in climate-growth relationships of Pinus kwangtungensis in a warming subtropical forest of China, Yu et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126574

Shifts in growth phenology of Tsuga dumosa in the central Himalayas under climate warming, Rai et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111307

Temporal Autocorrelation Increases Temperature-Driven Extinction Risk by Clustering Stressful Conditions, Robey et al., Ecology Letters pdf 10.1111/ele.70441

The North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and Phytoplankton Bloom Under Potential Future Climate Scenarios, Oliver et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023561

Water-use strategy shift mediates C4 plant response to altered precipitation seasonality, Zhou et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105616

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Whole-genome duplication in an algal symbiont bolsters coral heat tolerance, bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), 10.1101/2022.04.10.487810 28 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Top-Down View of Global and Regional Carbon Budgets From an Ensemble of Atmospheric Inversions, Woude et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008779

Abiotic CO2 cycling in a desert soil: Linking surface fluxes and subsurface dynamics across seasons, Bekin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111250

Adapter-enhanced CLIP for railway brake shoe anomaly detection, Shehzad et al., Complex & Intelligent Systems Open Access 10.1007/s40747-026-02377-2

Addition of brackish water to tundra soils does not inhibit methane production: implications for Arctic coastal methane production, Roy-Lafontaine et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3777-2026

Airborne Observations Reveal Underestimated Riverine Methane Emissions Across the Amazon, Ort et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122310

Anthropogenic perturbations to atmospheric methane reflected in Greenland firn air clumped isotope measurements, Sivan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb2203

Body mass index, sedentary lifestyle, and HbA1c predict cardiac autonomic neuropathy in type 2 diabetes, Haji et al., Cardiovascular Diabetology – Endocrinology Reports Open Access 10.1186/s40842-026-00308-1

Briefing Chat: Sweet! Elusive sugar molecules found in space, Thompson & Howe, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02263-4

Capturing the Global Variability of Marine Particulate Organic Carbon Flux: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach, Edwards et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123203

Carbon input manipulation significantly alters soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes across stand ages in boreal birch forests of China, Gao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111212

Comparative effects of A-site ionic radius and disorder on structure, magnetism, and transport in perovskite La0.8Sr0.1A0.1MnO3 (A=Ca, Sr, Ba), Zhang et al., Journal of Materials Science Materials in Electronics 10.1007/s10854-026-18036-8

Disease landscape–guided design of neutrophil-specific reporters for early and accurate pneumonia detection in vivo and in urine, Li et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb4417

Divergent long-term trends in vegetation carbon turnover between mature and young forests, Ren et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70396

Dynamical analysis of a discrete reaction-diffusion-convection predator-prey model based on coupled map lattices, Du & Han, Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing 10.1007/s12190-026-02860-6

Effects of hummock-hollow microtopography on CO2 and CH4 emissions from sedge peatlands in the Changbai Mountains, Northeast China, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111220

Environmental controls and temporal trends of CO2 and CH4 emissions in a former cultivated peatland under rewetting, Pullens et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111363

Evaluation of a Decade of Methane Observations From a Tower Network in Indianapolis, Indiana, Barkley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2026jd046734

Fatigue Properties of WAAM-Fabricated 2209 Duplex Stainless Steel Evaluated by Temperature Measurement and Heat Source Reconstruction, Viola et al., Experimental Mechanics 10.1007/s11340-026-01354-7

Filtering of Second Order Generalized Stochastic Processes Corrupted by Additive Noise, Wahlberg, Journal of Fourier Analysis and Applications Open Access 10.1007/s00041-026-10282-y

Geochemistry of CO2-rich gas emissions in the Carpathians: Multiscale geological sources and implications for orogenic degassing, Kis et al., Earth-Science Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105528

GHGPSE-Net: a method towards spaceborne automated extraction of greenhouse-gas point sources using point-object-detection deep neural network, Pang et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-1683-2026

Global burden and temporal trends of colorectal cancer in East Asia based on the global burden of disease 2023 study, Qin et al., Discover Oncology Open Access 10.1007/s12672-026-05561-5

Global warming makes nitrogen oxide abatement key to ozone pollution mitigation, Wang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea4124

High-performance multijunction perovskite LEDs with reduced interconnection loss, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75756-5

Hybrid Neuro-Symbolic Models for Transparent and Adaptive Decision-Making in Dynamic Real-World Environments, Welekar et al., National Academy Science Letters 10.1007/s40009-026-02325-1

Incorporating observed fire severity in refined emissions estimates for boreal and temperate forest fires in the carbon budget model CBM-CFS3 v1.2, Thompson et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-3617-2026

Increasing Warming May Inhibit Land Carbon Uptake in Northern High Latitudes, Madani et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122135

Insights of climate-driven changes in CH4 and CO2 source contributions at European coastal observatories, Adame et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109076

Iron overload suppresses LKB1 and induces IL36G anti-tumor immunity in PDAC metastasis, Biancur et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz8681

Leader as the “Glue” that holds the teams together: examining how identity leadership influences intra-team cooperation and inter-team knowledge sharing, Feng et al., Current Psychology 10.1007/s12144-026-09780-5

Livestock grazing, plant community and abiotic factors shape blue carbon stocks in Nordic coastal marshes, Richard et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4583-2026

Methane and Ethane Emission Rates, Intensities, and Trends: Aircraft Mass Balance Insights Over the Denver-Julesburg Basin, Fall 2021, Daley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044370

Methane and Nitrous Oxide Reshape the Air-Water Greenhouse Gas Budget of a Tropical Estuarine Delta, Cotovicz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009956

Methane oxidation in African and European rivers depends on stream size and wetland connectivity, Borges et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb8250

Microstructural Evolution and Acid Corrosion Mechanism of Laser-Clad FeCoNiCrx High-Entropy Alloy Coatings, Xiao et al., Metallurgical and Materials Transactions A 10.1007/s11661-026-08305-w

Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy on Postoperative Complications of Rectal Cancer: A Retrospective Study Integrating MRI Radiomics and Deep Learning, Bu et al., Journal of Imaging Informatics in Medicine 10.1007/s10278-026-02137-1

Organic carbon oxidation state shapes fermentative methanogenic microbiomes and controls greenhouse gas fluxes, Hu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73281-z

Organic Matter Stoichiometry Regulates the Continental Shelf Carbon Pump Efficiency of the Northwest European Shelf Seas, Demir et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008724

Peatlands Have the Potential to Emerge as Significant Contributors to Future Climate Warming, Chaudhary et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009540

Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping, Steinert et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73612-0

Physics-constrained machine-learning surrogates for the colebrook friction factor: monotonic gradient boosting, uncertainty quantification, and open benchmarking, Müftüo?lu, Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-62231-w

Plants are a powerful proxy for global tidal marsh methane fluxes, Wilson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2530848123

PLATO on the footsteps of Kepler for transit timing, Maltagliati, Nature Astronomy 10.1038/s41550-026-02933-3

Projected future warming induces a long-term loss in global dissolved organic carbon pool, Tjiputra et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03809-0

Quantifying facility-scale CO2 emissions using spaceborne hyperspectral imageries, Han et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115478

Rademacher-type exact formula and higher order Turán inequalities for cubic overpartitions, Agarwal et al., Research in Number Theory pdf 10.1007/s40993-026-00765-8

Rapid and sensitive NO2 detection using optimized flower-like ZnO nanorods synthesized via chemical bath deposition, Ambi et al., Journal of Materials Science Materials in Electronics 10.1007/s10854-026-18001-5

Reversed functional gradient in primate prefrontal cortex: Posterior dominance and frontopolar task-related deactivation, Watanabe et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea1094

Revising the Magnitude and Trends of the Global Methane Soil Sink With Process-Based, Machine-Learning, and Atmospheric Inversion Modeling Approaches, Oh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009668

Rock weathering can counteract river CO2 emissions induced by permafrost thaw, Zhang et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8

Satellite estimation of global air sea CO2 flux from 2000 to 2020, Ji et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-51215-5

Shoreline exposure controls teal carbon accumulation in boreal lakes, Dauner et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3637-2026

Short-Term Effects of PM2.5 Exposure on Hematological and Biochemical Blood Indices in the Middle-Aged and Elderly, Dinh et al., Aerosol and Air Quality Research Open Access 10.1007/s44408-026-00131-4

Simultaneous measurements of translation rate and transcriptome uncovers linked regulation within an active bacterial cell population, Baumann et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz1707

Soil Carbon Saturation Constrains Long-Term Sequestration Under Revegetation on China's Loess Plateau, Zhang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006739

The RhMPK3-RhLOB41-RhWRKY9 module orchestrates ethylene-induced petal abscission via dual control of ROS homeostasis in rose, Zhang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu6821

The spliceosome component SNRPC promotes glioma progression by sustaining mitochondrial function and TNFAIP2 signaling, Ma et al., Cell Death and Disease Open Access 10.1038/s41419-026-09065-6

Towards operational automated greenhouse gas plume detection and delineation, Bue et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115506

TundraFlux: A database of ecosystem respiration with biotic and abiotic metadata from Arctic and alpine tundra warming experiments, Schwieger et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-4965-2026

Understanding the resilient carbon cycle response to the 2014–2015 Blob event in the Gulf of Alaska using a regional ocean biogeochemical model, Abe et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3871-2026

Urban CO2 and CH4 pilot atmospheric measurements in the Milan city area (Northern Italy), Cristofanelli et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122124

Varicose projection astrocytes: Conserved reactive cells in brain pathology, Ciani et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady8204

When trust building looks like surveillance: Public polarization toward Chicago policing, Cheng & Liu, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb7575

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2024gb008102 121 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Contrasting first-year and tenth-year responses of soil CO2 efflux and soil carbon storage indicators to biochar addition in plantation forests, Yu et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1879259

Global quantification of the eco-hydrological co-benefits of soil carbon sequestration, Vanderkelen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-3829-2026

Hydrogen bond network disruption enables efficient direct reactive capture of CO2 from flue gas, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74647-z

Insights lost at points of vulnerability in UK policy evidence gathering on carbon dioxide removal, Hope & Vaughan, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104412

Mapping CO2 Migration Pathways: Interactions With Geological Structures, Ashmore et al., Edinburgh Research Explorer Open Access pmh:oai:pure.ed.ac.uk:openaire/0386afc5-3b2c-436f-b35d-44a153274556

Naturalness catalyzes public support for carbon dioxide removal and low-carbon energy technologies, Coffin & Boven, Open MIND pmh:10.17605/osf.io/g37ku

Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects, Guizar-Coutiño et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41559-026-03049-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02068-1 75 cites.

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Decarbonization

A global feasibility gap in resilient island energy transitions, Huang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75606-4

Accuracy, robustness and comprehensibility – Challenges in bottom-up energy system models, Prina & Noussan, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000890

Beyond lithium: how sodium-ion batteries could change the world, Castelvecchi, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02150-y

Climate change reshapes resource adequacy risks and optimal renewable energy siting in wind and solar energy systems, Qiu et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02109-3

Climatic Impacts of Large-Scale Wind Farms in Arid and Semi-Arid Region in China: A Case Study of the Huitengxile Wind Farm in Inner Mongolia, Su et al., Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.70141

Energy transition in India and the race for renewable energy to outpace fossil fuels in carbon reduction, Noor et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-04129-1

Ensemble-based projections of future climate extremes and their implications for photovoltaic power potential in China, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.011

Optimized decarbonization pathway coupled with carbon trading mechanism for China's steel industry towards carbon neutrality, Sun et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115428

Stakeholder perspectives on decarbonizing Thailand's power sector: A SWOT-fuzzy AHP approach towards net zero, Altaf et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102084

The trade route to renewables: Import as a catalyst for the diffusion of renewable energy technology, Rabbani & Quaiyyum, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115390

Toward net-zero water systems: mechanisms and challenges in low- and middle-income Asian countries, Ahmed et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101681

Urban decarbonization needs strategic reserves for critical materials, Allam et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03819-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Critical mineral mining in the energy transition: A systematic review of environmental, social, and governance risks and opportunities, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103672 85 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Intended and unintended consequences of atmospheric methane oxidation enhancement, Horowitz, Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9471-2026

Ocean alkalinity enhancement reduces silica ballasting during export due to amplified dissolution, Suessle et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4691-2026

Reflecting on the politics and power dynamics of contested climate technologies, Fritz et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104448

Black carbon

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Changes in the Direct Climate Effect of Black Carbon Aerosols in East Asia Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal of China, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd040874 5 cites.

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Aerosols

Global Characterization of Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), Bernath et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd046214

Rising dust pollution across Europe in a changing climate, Vasilakos et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10743-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions over the Northern Indian Ocean, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107601 4 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

As the planet heats, public doubt grows: The social structure behind rising climate change scepticism in Germany, Gies & Deutschmann, Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103202

Climate Change Advocacy in Libraries: Practices, Challenges and Future Research Directions, Oladokun et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2702627

Climate change concerns and perceived intergenerational mobility, Gugushvili & Präg, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103119

Climate Obstruction in the Digital Far-Right: Mapping the Climate Countermovement in German-, Danish-, and Swedish-Speaking Digital Information Environments, Henriksen et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2026.2701866

Confident judgments of (mis)information veracity are more, rather than less, accurate, Ak et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag186

Lagos Is Drowning: Media, Resistance, and Climate Coloniality in Flooding Narratives, Ogungbemi, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2706163

Listening to climate change: sound, imagination and environmental sociology, Clark, Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2026.2704790

Mapping climate change coverage: Causes, consequences, and solutions in German news media, 2010–2024, Dablander et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104833

Medical students’ perspectives on climate change, climate-health education, and professional identity: a qualitative study, Loh et al., BMC Medical Education Open Access 10.1186/s12909-026-09775-7

Temporal horizons in US climate change news, Wozniak, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02716-8

The Digital Representation of Greta Thunberg in Internet Memes: Gender, Ideology, and Digital Violence, Lucena & Colacios, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2701872

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Patterns of climate-change coping among late adolescents: Differences in emotions concerning the future, moral responsibility, and climate-change engagement, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-024-03778-3 19 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Paphia undulata enhances sedimentary CH4 and N2O emissions via divergent microbial mechanisms, Zhong et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108103

Climate stressor projections inform adaptation needs in South Asian oilseed systems, Barik et al., npj Sustainable Agriculture Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44264-026-00170-9

Crop migration is not a viable long-term strategy for mitigating climate change impacts on winter wheat production in the North China Plain, GUO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.006

Decoding Heat Tolerance in Rice: Physiological Mechanisms, Genetic Architecture, and Breeding Innovations, Saha et al., Plant Molecular Biology Reporter 10.1007/s11105-026-01743-1

Depicting the response of crop photosynthesis to elevated CO2: the unique role of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, Ye et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111211

From perception to action: attitudes and climate change adaptation practices among smallholder farmers in Nakivale refugee settlement, Mohamed et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1868338

Modeling short- and long-term climatic and non-climatic drivers of wheat yield in Somalia (1986–2019): Evidence from an ARDL approach, Osman et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000804

Regional flooding enhances N2O and CH4 emissions from agricultural fields: Evidence from a single extreme event across the North China Plain, Ge et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111284

Simulating Agroecology Policy Options for the Resilience of Smallholder Food Security to Climate Shocks, Dagunga et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70055

Sizing blue carbon risks and benefits from bivalve aquaculture, Gentry et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00199-w

Tibetan Pasture Restoration Causes Additional Cooling by Reflecting Solar Radiation, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg009479

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Land use modulates resistance of grasslands against future climate and inter-annual climate variability in a large field experiment, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17418 29 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Exceptionally Warm Event in the Tropical South Atlantic in 2023–24: Physical Drivers and Impacts on South American Rainfall, Hounsou-Gbo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023901

North American Winter Precipitation Extremes: Changes in Variability and Driving Mechanisms in a Warming Climate, Jeong et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008659

Precipitation Over the Contiguous United States Is Coming From Farther Away Than in the Past, Aerenson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122565

Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300, Palmer et al., Explore Bristol Research pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/62032aef-becd-4ddc-a902-ff39b2c8a275

Rethinking future flood hazard: Hourly data challenge daily flood projections in Alpine catchments, Astagneau et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed6012

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Extreme Hourly Rainfall in the Hawaiian Islands, Gayte et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70501

Uncertainty in California Winter Precipitation Linked to Future Projections of North Pacific Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation, Choi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres pdf 10.1029/2025jd045669

Understanding changes in Iceland's streamflow dynamics in response to climate change, Helgason et al., Hydrology and earth system sciences Open Access 10.5194/hess-30-3979-2026

Unraveling daily dynamics of supraglacial lakes in response to hydrological pulses and anomalous climate signals, Song et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75669-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01560-y 49 cites.

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Climate change economics

Carbon pricing, economic resilience, and transport decarbonization: evidence from Finland, Msefula et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Open Access 10.1057/s41599-026-08428-w

Climate-induced loss and damage in Nepal: attribution analysis and institutional readiness for international support, Dhakal et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1782991

How the money flows: analyzing international finance for climate change adaptation in Ethiopia, Kidane et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103201

Inequality in flood insurance arrangements to finance flood recovery under climate change, Tesselaar & Botzen, Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100850

Prioritizing the welfare of vulnerable nations promotes equitable achievement of Paris target, Biswas et al., npj Climate Action Open Access 10.1038/s44168-026-00385-z

Research on the impact of climate risk on corporate cost of debt financing, Yang et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1763661

Statistical learning for climate-GDP panels: Data cleaning, flexible trend controls, and predictive validation, Schötz et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000962

Views of EU citizens on economic growth and implications for climate policy, Savin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73323-6

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Towards a more transformative approach to climate finance, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2024.2377730 27 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Improvement of ambient air quality and the synergistic governance of CO2 and pollutant emissions in Shenyang, Zhao et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-50803-9

The impact of conventional policy instruments on climate change mitigation in China, Matutinovi? & Borozan, The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196261464201

Waste and CO2, an intricate relationship. Metrics, policy and technology in the climate-framing of waste, Rocher, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104443

“Mitigation + adaptation” climate policy synergy and urban ecological resilience: Evidence from China, Zhang & Dou, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103046

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Power supply disruptions deter electric vehicle adoption in cities in China, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50447-1 53 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A battleground of climate change: Summer air temperatures in social housing, Pfautsch et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103051

Assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods and ecosystems during the KwaZulu-Natal floods and their implications for climate resilience, Anekwe, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2026.2696367

Economic optimization of climate adaptation for water security: an integrated water–energy nexus risk assessment framework, Ran et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1817765

Inequality in human development amplifies climate-related disaster risk, Teber et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73873-9

Instrumentalizing ‘uninhabitability’ at a time of climate change: the case of Barbuda after Hurricane Irma, ???????? et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2696370

Maladaptation can contribute to aggregated, amplified, compounded, and cascading climate risks, Shah, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101689

Producing resilience: governance, social relations, and climate risk in coastal communities, Nurhayati et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2699296

Promises and pitfalls of climate adaptation tools across the Mediterranean, Koutroulis et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03795-3

Rethinking urban climate adaptation: A degrowth perspective for policy and practice, Acuña & Fernández-Baldor, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104445

The Destination Earth digital twin for climate change adaptation, Doblas-Reyes et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026

The national knowledge politics of monitoring and evaluating adaptation to climate change: processes of repair, theatrical performance and legitimacy, Adhikari & Fisher, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2700733

Women and climate adaptation in South Africa: a gender-responsive policy review, Baloyi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1821218

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Weaving scientific and local knowledge on climate change impacts in coastal Kenya, Western Indian Ocean, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103846 10 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing and Refining the Heat Index for Subdaily Heat Conditions, Liu, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0250.1

Climate change, hygiene, and health: A research roadmap for climate adaptation, Gerard et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000907

Environmental suitability of Coccidioides in the USA under climate change scenarios: a modelling study, Deshpande et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101481

Feeling the heat: Socio-spatial inequalities in indoor overheating and heat adaptation in Greater London, Assan, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104868

Global climate risks for outdoor sports under CMIP6 scenarios: A multi-indicator assessment based on WBGT, Heat Index, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves, Defrance & Lescure, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000969

Local drivers in accelerating North American heat stress, Prein et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72795-w

Mental health experiences amid climate change and sexual and reproductive health challenges: A scoping review focused on low-and middle-income countries, Vahedi et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000984

Recognizing the human health impacts of marine heatwaves, Falkenberg & Russell, Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01892-x

The science of climate heat risks has a metric problem, Jay & Jahan, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03804-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Indoor overheating: A review of vulnerabilities, causes, and strategies to prevent adverse human health outcomes during extreme heat events, Temperature, 10.1080/23328940.2024.2361223 87 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Critical misalignments in climate pledges reveal imbalanced sustainable development pathways, Larosa et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73564-5

Defragmenting Mangrove Law Towards Coherent Global Governance, Lorber & Cappa, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73721

Other

AI-assisted longitudinal comparison of scenario knowledge representation in IPCC synthesis reports, Warin & Bisson, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000965

Co-Producing Climate Services for California's Energy Sector, Freitas et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef005959

Extreme Weather in the Southern Hemisphere in Early 2022, Vries et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-23-0141.1

From continental to street scales: climate change impacts on atmospheric composition over Europe and London, Doherty et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-10115-2026

Mercury mobilization and export from the Greenland Ice Sheet using an ice-to-ocean approach, Youssef et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03818-z

Modelling the anthropocene: A brief and partial history, Turnbull, The Anthropocene Review Open Access 10.1177/20530196261472817

Resource consumption in global concrete production, Kane et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01858-z

The true impacts of the built environment, [authors did not process], Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01910-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
How Has the Ferrel Cell Contributed to the Maintenance of Antarctic Sea Ice at Low Levels From 2016 to 2022?, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108801 2 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Missing Western Pacific moorings threaten weather and climate forecasting and research, Cravatte et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1861050

U.S. researchers express outrage over proposed changes to managing federal grants, Mervis, Science 10.1126/science.aek5959

‘Climate free fall’: why the biggest risk to our economies is yet to be recognized, Levermann, Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-02154-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Science-based targets miss the mark, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01535-z 30 cites.

buffer/IOPN Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Early Warnings: Government Knowledge of Climate Change and Legal Responsibility for Climate Harm, Lindsay Fenlock and Nikki Reisch, Center for International Environmental Law

The authors examine publicly available government records, scientific evidence, and historical archives to document when major emitting States became aware of the causes and foreseeable consequences of climate change. They demonstrate that many governments understood the risks decades earlier than they have claimed, strengthening the evidentiary foundation for climate litigation, human rights, and climate advocacy, and the implementation of the International Court of Justice climate advisory opinion. By tracing the history of government knowledge, the report provides a critical resource for advancing climate accountability and ensuring that high-emitting States are held responsible for failing to prevent the climate crisis.

Bait and Switch. The Impacts of Trump Administration Policies at the Intersection of Clean Energy, Manufacturing, and Labor, BlueGreen Alliance

The authors found that largely due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), 223 manufacturing, clean energy, and industrial projects are already facing cancellations and delays representing at least $82.8 billion in capital investment which could cost 111,765 jobs. Additionally, more than 3,034 manufacturing, clean energy, and industrial sites face tax restrictions due to OBBBA, putting at risk $695.2 billion in capital investment and 1,184,996 jobs.

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts, National Research Council, The National Academies Press

Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events. Even as those trends become clearer, extreme event attribution (EEA) seeks to assess the degree to which climate change contributed to any specific event. EEA studies provide information that can be useful for public understanding, planning and risk management, policy and legal contexts, and scientific research. The authors evaluate the state of EEA science, updating a National Academies report published in 2016. The authors also assess the emerging field of extreme event impact attribution (EEIA). The number of EEA studies has grown substantially over the past decade as scientific tools, observational datasets, and methods have advanced, enabling attribution studies to be completed within days of an event. However, challenges remain, including limited model capabilities for small-scale regional events, representation of key atmospheric processes, and attribution of compounding, cascading, and record-breaking events. The authors examine these advances and remaining challenges and provide recommendations for strengthening attribution science, improving collaboration with local experts and stakeholders, and advancing research, data, and modeling capabilities worldwide.

Military Escalation in the Middle East: Cushioning the Global Shock, Molina et al., United Nations Development Program

The economic, fiscal and social impacts of the recent Middle East military escalation are expected to persist despite the June 18 Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States. Since April, many developing economies have sought to shield households and businesses from rising energy costs through subsidies, price caps, tax reductions and demand-management measures. While these policies have softened the immediate affect of higher prices, they have come at a significant fiscal cost. Without such interventions, poverty is projected to increase substantially. Under an adverse global growth scenario, an additional 17 million people could fall into poverty by upper-middle-income standards, rising to 45 million under a severe scenario. Global fossil fuel subsidies are projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026 and could reach $1.43 trillion if oil prices rise to $110 per barrel. The effects of the shock differ across regions. Remittances have helped cushion affects in South Asia, fertilizer disruptions risk worsening food insecurity in Africa, and energy subsidies in East Asia have contained inflation while increasing fiscal exposure. These pressures come at a time when nearly half of the world’s poorest countries are already in or at high risk of debt distress. As debt service costs continue to rise and fiscal buffers are exhausted, many governments are being forced to divert resources away from health, education and infrastructure. Sustained multilateral support will be essential to help vulnerable countries manage the crisis and protect development gains.

Disproportionate Regulation of Residential Plug-in Solar, Stephen Smith and Amanda Arthur, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy

The authors examine the scientific and regulatory basis for the differential treatment of residential plug-in solar photovoltaic (PIPV) units and portable gas/diesel generators with respect to line-worker safety. The authors use documented fatality records from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), peer-reviewed electrical injury science, utility industry safety publications, applicable federal inverter safety standards, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded national laboratory barrier analysis, and the emerging bipartisan legislative consensus in multiple states. They noted that A DOE-funded Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study (2025) systematically catalogued the technical, interconnection, and regulatory barriers to plug-in solar adoption in the United States, confirming that interconnection requirements—not technical safety limitations—are the primary barrier to deployment.

Washington State Climate Action Plan, Washington State Departments of Commerce and Ecology

Washington already has a strong set of policies to advance climate action. However, the state can and must do more The Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP) is designed to meet this need and be a far-reaching, implementable, equitable, and thorough roadmap to ensure a sustainable future for the state. The CCAP identifies opportunities across all sectors of the economy to further reduce emissions and provide direct benefits to communities and businesses such as cleaner air, healthier communities, boosting the economy, and protecting vulnerable populations.

Retail Electricity Price Trends and Drivers: Data Update−2026 Edition, Wiser et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Prices largely tacked inflation; all-sector average prices are only up 3% since 2019 in real dollars. Real prices are down in 29 states; A majority of states saw a decline in inflation-adjusted prices (2019-2025). Electricity burdens are lower that in 2019 in most regions; total bills as a fraction of income are near all-time lows.

The 2025 small island developing states report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: building resilience in the face of rising heat, Gordon-Strachan et al., The Lancet Global Health

In this second iteration of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) report, the authors present the findings of 28 indicators from five thematic areas: health hazards, exposures, and impacts; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement in health and climate change. General statements about SIDS were only made for indicators with data coverage of at least 70%, with the number of SIDS with available indicator data explicitly stated when this threshold was not met. The 2025 report includes a dedicated chapter on financing with a deep dive into international climate financing for SIDS.

A Majority of Voters Support Worker Protections Against Extreme Heat, Ayseli Karabekmez, Data for Progress

Rising global temperatures are causing more frequent and severe extreme heat, droughts, and flooding across the United States. Last week, a dangerous heat wave with temperatures of 103–105 degrees Fahrenheit prompted heat alerts across multiple states. As climate-driven extreme weather events become more common, a majority of Americans are connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather like heat waves. Recent polling finds that a majority of voters (61%) believe that extreme weather events — like hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, and heat waves — have become more frequent over the past five years. This includes majorities of Democrats (72%) and Independents (63%). Republicans are more divided, with a plurality (46%) saying extreme weather events have become more frequent, and 42% saying the frequency has stayed the same. Perceptions of extreme weather also vary by age. Half of voters under 45 (50%) believe the number of extreme weather events has increased over the past five years, compared with 66% of voters over 45 – a 16-point difference.

Heat, health and increasing cost of living. A call for action, Mathilde Wilkens and Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Global

The authors recommend embedding heat-health effects into UNFCCC processes, including the Global Goal on Adaptation indicators and the Belem Health Action Plan (BHAP); linking national adaptation plans to concrete social protection measures, including compensation for lost working time and state-supported insurance schemes; extending formal labor protections to cover heat-related losses, particularly for informal workers, and addressing the gender dimensions of heat vulnerability; and mobilizing adaptation finance specifically for health, with clear guidance on how funding can be deployed to protect living standards.

Grid Action Report – July 4th Heat Wave. How clean energy provides cost savings and boosts grid reliability during extreme heat, Will Taylor and Jamie Dickerson, Acadia Center

The authors provide a response to recent extreme weather events affecting energy systems and consumers in the Northeast. The region’s experience with last week’s heatwave again points to the power of a portfolio approach to deliver savings and resource adequacy: a combination of clean energy resources helped the region ride through a period of significant grid stress – periods which will only increase in frequency, duration, and cost under a changing climate. This portfolio of resources – including solar, energy efficiency, demand response, battery storage, interregional transmission, and on/offshore wind – will serve as the foundation for a less volatile, more affordable, and more secure energy system. For example, distributed solar drives major savings during heat wave. The authors estimate 6+ gigawatts (GW) of distributed solar saved New England ratepayers $130-149 million in wholesale electricity (energy) costs during the week of June 28 through July 4, 2026. Distributed solar output exceeded 25% of all demand on the grid at times and contributed more to the grid mix than the region’s nuclear fleet between 2PM and 7PM on the peak heatwave day of July 2.

Modernizing New Jersey’s Electric Utility Business Model, Patel et al., New Jersey Board of Public Utilities

Electricity bills in New Jersey have risen faster than most household essentials, which makes affordability the central concern of this study. Most of a typical bill (supply and transmission) is set in federal and regional markets with limited ability at the state level to influence those costs. Utility business-model reform that is regulated at the state level can act mainly on the distribution and programmatic portion of the bill, roughly a quarter of the bill, though some reforms may indirectly lower exposure to supply and transmission costs. The jurisdictional review and evidence show that no single reform or modernization option is a silver bullet. The most reliable near-term gains could come from “cost-discipline” measures available under existing state authority. More ambitious financing, incentive, and performance-based reforms could follow as data, baselines, and customer protections mature.

China's wind and solar mega-bases face a coal test, Yu et al., GEM

China is building more wind and utility-scale solar than the rest of the world combined, concentrated in northwestern and northern regions. Over 500 gigawatts (GW) of China's vast 1,360 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity is already under construction. Six provinces and autonomous regions — Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi — hold 714 GW, or more than half of China’s prospective wind and utility-scale solar pipeline. China’s wind and solar deployment has moved from an installation race to a system-integration test. China’s wind and solar mega-bases constitute the largest renewable-energy deployment project in the world, but grid bottlenecks and electricity market arrangements that limit system flexibility are preventing that capacity from being fully used. The result is rising curtailment: wind and solar output that could have been generated under prevailing weather conditions, but was instead reduced or withheld. The question is no longer whether China can build renewable capacity at scale, but whether it can transmit, store, price, and consume that power in ways that reduce coal use.

The Fraud of “Clean” Natural Gas. How Big Oil and Gas Created the Myth that Natural Gas is a Climate Solution, John et al., The Center for Climate Integrity

For decades, the oil and gas industry has perpetuated the fraud that natural gas is clean and a climate solution, despite knowing that it is a significant source of air pollution and a major contributor to climate change. The gas industry knew as early as 1907 that natural gas was a source of respiratory problems when burned indoors, and by the 1950s it knew that gas caused problems in outdoor air. Beginning in the 1960s, the oil and gas industry learned of another threat — emerging science showed that natural gas was a potentially significant contributor to methane in the atmosphere. As companies and their representatives closely monitored scientific developments on methane, the chemical name for natural gas, they also learned that it was a potent greenhouse gas and damaging for the climate, About New Research

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

Over the past week smoke from Canadian wildfires has once again poured into cities across Canada and the northern US. Toronto briefly had the worst air quality of any major city on Earth, Thunder Bay’s readings went off the top of Canada’s air quality health index scale, and unhealthy air alerts stretched from Minneapolis to New York City.

This smoke-pocalypse has renewed a long-standing debate online that these fires aren’t really about climate change at all, but about forest mismanagement. Decades of aggressive fire suppression, the argument goes, have let fuel pile up. We don’t log enough, thin enough, or do enough prescribed burning The forests are overgrown tinderboxes and we have only ourselves to blame. Climate is a distraction from a problem we created by listening to Smokey Bear’s insidious propaganda.

I want to take this argument seriously, because it has a real kernel of truth. The fire-deficit story is a genuine phenomenon in the dry conifer forests of the western United States. But most of what’s burning in Canada is boreal forest, and the boreal is a fundamentally different beast. So in this piece I’ll try to explain why the management argument, largely valid in a California pine stand, mostly falls apart when you move it a couple of thousand kilometers north, and explore what the fire data actually shows.

Here’s the short version. Canada’s area burned has surged, and it has surged in step with warming: hot, dry fire seasons burn far more forest, with area burned rises roughly 80% for each 1C increase in fire-season temperature (with a correlation coefficient of 0.61). This relationship is robust to a variety of statistical tests and controlling for confounding variables. The boreal burns in rare, high-intensity crown fires on a natural cycle measured in a century or more, across enormous remote areas that have never been logged, thinned, or effectively suppressed. Only about a fifth of Canada’s burned area over the past four decades was even inside forest regions that have ever been actively managed. You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing.

Forest mis-management?

The forest-mismanagement argument was, in fairness, based on real evidence from some regions. In the frequent-fire dry forests of the western US that are dominated by ponderosa pine and mixed conifers the natural fire regime is low-to-moderate intensity surface fire returning every 5 to 30 years, historically stoked in part by Indigenous burning. A century of fire exclusion in those forests really did remove that frequent fire, let stands grow denser and more continuous, and build up a “fire deficit” that raises the odds of severe fire (Hagmann et al. 2021). And in that setting, fuel treatments work: Prichard et al. (2021) find wide agreement that mechanical thinning combined with prescribed burning measurably reduces subsequent fire severity. If you’re arguing about the Sierra Nevada, the management story is as important if not more important than the climate one.

The problem is that the Canadian boreal is not the Sierra Nevada. It burns in infrequent, high-intensity, stand-replacing crown fires that kill the whole stand on natural fire cycles measured in many decades to centuries (commonly a century or more, and two centuries or longer in the east), not 5 to 30 years. It is, ecologically speaking, supposed to burn this way; black spruce is practically built for it. Fire in this system was never the gentle recurring ground-clearing that suppression interrupted in California. And the burning is astonishingly concentrated: across the boreal, something like 3% of fires account for about 97% of the area burned. This is not a landscape full of many small fires that “used to clean out the fuel.” Rather, its a landscape that waits, and then burns catastrophically under extreme weather.

Why do we know that Canadian boreal forest fires are not being driven by mismanagement?

First, and most importantly, most of the boreal was never being managed in the first place. As University of Alberta fire scientist Jen Beverly has pointed out, only about one-fifth of Canada’s total burned area from 1986 to 2023 occurred within long-term forest tenure (the land that’s actually logged and managed). The vast majority burns in remote forest with no timber operations. In Canada’s so-called “extensive” fire-management zones there has been no serious suppression efforts historically. Fires there are monitored and largely left to burn unless they threaten people or infrastructure. You can’t blame overgrown, over-suppressed forests for fires in places nobody was suppressing.

Second, the fuel-buildup mechanism doesn’t fit the recent fires. If decades of suppression had loaded the forest with excess old fuel, you’d expect the big fire years to preferentially consume the oldest, most fuel-laden stands. But in Alberta’s brutal 2023 season, fires burned stands of essentially all ages in proportion to how much of each was on the landscape. That’s the signature of fire driven by weather, which doesn’t care how old the trees are, not by fuel accumulation.

Third, the proposed fixes don’t scale to the boreal even if you wanted them. This is the conclusion of the very scientists who documented Canada’s fire deficit. Coogan, Parisien and colleagues (2020) state it flatly: mechanical fuel treatments “require continued maintenance over time, are too expensive to apply across large boreal landscapes, and are usually not designed to halt extreme wildfires.” The boreal is on the order of three million square kilometers. You are not going to thin or prescribe-burn your way across it, and the crown fires that produce the smoke wouldn’t stop at a fuel break anyway.

So if it’s not mismanagement, what is it? Let’s look at the data.

The Canadian fire record

To start with, here is the long-term record of area burned, combing the satellite-mapped NBAC composite from 1972 on with the less-complete point-based records before that shown in grey (note that this is primarily for illustration; I don’t compute any statistics across the 1972 splice to avoid potential bias from changing measurement approaches).

Annual forest area burned in Canada, 1959–2026. Grey bars show the point-based record (1959–1971); red bars the NBAC satellite composite (1972–2025); the hatched bar is 2026 through mid-July (CIFFC, preliminary). Data: NRCan CNFDB/NBAC; CIFFC.

2023 stands out like a sore thumb with 14.8 million hectares in the satellite-mapped data (Canadian agency tallies actually run higher at 17–18 Mha as different products count differently),1 roughly 2.5 times the previous record. 2025 came in second at ~7.3 Mha in the satellite data. And 2026 so far is about 2.8 Mha by mid-July, a bit above the typical pace for this date, but far below the last few extreme years.

One caveat around how unprecedented this actually is. A recent tree-ring reconstruction back to 1800 (Danneyrolles et al. 2025) found that while 2023 itself was off the charts in most regions they studied, the decadal burn rate for 2014–2023 still sits within the range of the past two centuries in several zones, especially in the eastern boreal. We are not necessarily seeing more fire than ever everywhere, but rather a rapid rate of increase with the increasing prevalence of fire weather driving it. In addition, parts of the northwestern boreal are now burning at rates that do appear to exceed anything in thousands of years.

One important driver: higher temperatures Change in fire-season (May–September) mean temperature, 1959 to 2025, computed as a per-gridcell LOWESS trend. Canada-wide mean change is +2.2C, exceeding +3C in parts of the high Arctic. Data: ERA5-Land (ECMWF/Copernicus) via Google Earth Engine.

Canadian fire seasons (May through September) have warmed about 2.2C on average since 1959. Canada warms at roughly twice the global rate, and its north at roughly three times. That warming matters for fire through a well-understood mechanism: warmer air is exponentially “thirstier” (saturation vapor pressure rises ~7% per degree), so it pulls moisture out of live vegetation and dead fuels alike, priming the landscape to burn. It’s the same fuel-drying pathway that Abatzoglou and Williams (2016) found had roughly doubled cumulative forest area burned in the western US.

Hanes et al. (2019), examining the Canadian record from 1959 to 2015, found fire seasons starting earlier and ending later, more days with conditions suitable for fire spread, and increases in both annual area burned and the frequency of large fires. They found that these trends were consistent with human-caused warming, not with changes in forest management (which have been broadly stable since the 1980s even as the fire seasons have gotten dramatically worse).

Hot and dry years burn

A few years ago my Berkeley Earth colleague Robert Rohde made a lovely figure plotting each California fire season by its temperature and precipitation. Here is my Canadian version: every year from 1959 to 2025 placed in climate space, with dot size proportional to national area burned and the ten largest fire years outlined in black.

Each dot is one year (1959–2025), positioned by its fire-season (May–Sep) mean temperature and total precipitation averaged over burnable land, sized by national area burned (NBAC). Adapted from Robert Rohde’s California fire season weather chart. Data: ERA5-Land; NRCan CNFDB/NBAC.

The pattern is hard to miss. The biggest fire years pile up in the hot-and-dry corner with 2023 really standing out, and the recent era (red dots, 2011–2025) has shifted visibly toward that corner relative to the black dots of the 1960s. Canada’s fire seasons are migrating into the part of weather-space where the big burns happen.

We can also try and more directly quantify the relationship between area burned and temperature. Nationally, fire-season temperature correlates with log area burned at r = 0.61 (1972–2025), which means that a fire season 1C warmer sees ~80% more area burned. I want to be careful about what this does and doesn’t show, so I stress-tested it: the correlation survives detrending (r = 0.57), first-differencing (r = 0.46), and partialling out precipitation (r = 0.58). It isn’t just two things drifting upward together, and it isn’t a rebranded precipitation effect.2

Correlation of fire-season mean temperature with log annual area burned by province/territory, 1972–2025, with 95% moving-block bootstrap intervals. Red dots are significant after false-discovery-rate correction. Data: NRCan CNFDB/NBAC; ERA5-Land.

The relationship is strongest in the western and northern boreal – Yukon, BC, the Northwest Territories, the Prairie provinces, Ontario – and weak to non-significant in Nunavet, Quebec, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick, matching the literature’s finding that eastern boreal fire is generally less temperature-limited.

Lightning in the middle of nowhere Cumulative area burned by ignition cause, 1990–2023. Data: National Forestry Database (agency-reported).

About 71% of Canada’s area burned over 1990–2023 came from lightning-ignited fires, and in the record 2023 season it was ~93%. These are remote boreal megafires, ignited by lightning far from any road, timber lease, or fuel-treatment crew. This is worth considering in the context of the management debate: the fires driving the smoke are not escaped campfires or mismanaged plantations. They are lightning strikes into a drying landscape, often burning in exactly the places no one was managing. And because warming is expected to increase high-latitude lightning, climate change can contribute to both the fuel dryness and the ignition side of the equation.

What attribution science actually says

This week the National Academies released a major report on the attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts, updating their influential 2016 assessment. Its wildfire findings are careful, and they land almost exactly on the distinction I’ve been trying to make in this piece.

On the general question, the report concludes it is very likely that climate change has increased the likelihood and severity of extreme fire weather: the hot, dry, windy conditions that let fires ignite and spread. At the same time it assigns low confidence to attributing any specific individual wildfire, because fires are irreducibly multivariate: ignition, fuels, land management, and suppression all mediate the on-the-ground relationship between fire weather and hectares burned. Notably, the report also flags that no attribution study has yet isolated the role of fuel or ignition changes, precisely because those human factors are so entangled. The science is much stronger on “climate change made conditions like these more likely” than on “climate change, specifically, caused this fire.”

For Canada’s exceptional 2023 fire year the evidence is unusually strong, and the report devotes a whole box to it. Kirchmeier-Young et al. (2024) found the record burned area was 2–5 times more likely thanks to human influence in Canada’s eastern and western ecozones, and the extraordinarily long fire season more than 5 times more likely. World Weather Attribution found the cumulative fire-weather severity at least 7 times more likely and ~50% more intense. Jones et al. (2024) put the fire-weather likelihood increase at ~2.9–3.6x and burned area ~10% higher (95% CI: 3-40%) than without warming. And Barnes et al. (2025) found the James Bay severity rating at least 32% more intense, while noting the season was amplified by an extreme run of atmospheric blocking (~50 blocking days versus an average of 15), a reminder that in any single year the weather still matter enormously.

Where management does matter

The prior sections are about the physical science of what’s driving the fire trend. What we should do about it is a policy question, and here the management crowd is not wrong so much as aiming at the wrong target.

There genuinely is a fire deficit in parts of boreal Canada — but it’s local, and it’s about people, not country or regional fire totals. Parisien, Coogan and colleagues (2020) found that of 160 boreal communities they studied, 54% were surrounded by less recently-burned forest than their fire regime would predict reflecting a suppression legacy that leaves older, more flammable forest ringing towns. This is a place where thinning, fuel breaks, and prescribed burning could genuinely help.

Fuel management is valuable around communities, but is essentially useless across the remote boreal. But in Canada it does not explain and cannot reverse the rise in area burned that’s filling the sky with smoke. Treating the wildland-urban interface and cutting the emissions that are drying the forest should be seen as complementary rather than as competitors.

Why the smokey skies

One last point on the thing thats actually dominating the news a the moment. Even a year like 2026 that appears not to be headed for a top-5 record for area burned in Canada can still have catastrophic air pollution impacts.

Large-fire footprints (≥200 ha) across Canada, 2015–2024 (grey, ~39 Mha total), with the 878 fires still active as of 17 July 2026 (red, sized by area). Data: NRCan CNFDB large-fire polygons; CIFFC year-to-date feed.

Whether a given city chokes on smoke depends on where fires burn, how high their plumes loft, which way the wind blows, and how many people live downwind, not on total hectares burned nationwide. This July, fires across northwestern Ontario, the Prairies, and Quebec have sat upwind of the Great Lakes population corridor under a persistent transporting flow. A modest fire season in the wrong place can choke tens of millions, while a record season in the remote north can have much smaller impacts on populated regions. While overall area burned is the climate-linked trend, who breathes the smoke on a given week in July is mostly driven by the weather.

A few takeaways

So what are the takeaways here?

First, the forest-mismanagement explanation is borrowed from the wrong forest. Its a real problem in the frequent-fire dry forests of the western US, but the Canadian boreal is a rare-crown-fire system, mostly unmanaged and unsuppressed, where only about a fifth of the burned area is even on managed land and where the fire scientists themselves say landscape-scale fuel treatments can’t scale or stop the megafires.

Second, the surge in Canadian burning tracks temperature with striking consistency, and hotter, drier fire seasons burn far more forest (+80% per 1C), the biggest fire years are almost universally hotter and drier, over 90% of the record 2023 burn was remote lightning fire, and the attribution studies tie these extremes to a warmer atmosphere without needing to invoke forest management at all.

And third, where management does matter like for the forests ringing communities it’s a genuine and worthy fix. But here it just protects towns; it doesn’t solve the underlying factors driving area burned or wildfire smoke pollution.

So next time someone tells you Canada’s fires can be solved by raking the forests, you can point out that the thing filling their sky with smoke is a lightning-struck, drought-primed boreal forest doing what a warming climate is making it do more and more often.

In case its helpful, I’ve put the code and data to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

1 Burned-area products genuinely differ: the National Burned Area Composite (NBAC) maps fire perimeters from satellite imagery and is more conservative, while agency/CIFFC tallies are reported figures with different cutoff dates (2023 is 14.8 Mha in NBAC vs ~17–18 Mha in agency totals). I use NBAC as the primary series and avoid computing statistics across the 1972 data-source splice; the 2026 number is a preliminary CIFFC year-to-date figure.

2 The gory methodological details: correlations use the homogeneous NBAC record (1972–2025), with effective sample sizes adjusted for autocorrelation (Bretherton et al. 1999), 95% moving-block bootstrap confidence intervals, and Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery-rate control across jurisdictions. The national relationship also holds when refit excluding 2023 and 2025 (r = 0.52), so it is not an artifact of the two recent extreme years. Temperature and precipitation are area-weighted over each jurisdiction’s forested/woody land (MODIS IGBP classes 1–9) from ERA5-Land. Fire-season precipitation correlates with area burned at r = −0.49.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters

As climate change bakes forests across North America, dense smoke from dozens of out-of-control wildfires burning in northern Minnesota and adjacent portions of Ontario is blanketing tens of millions of people with hazardous pollution.

The fires are bringing the worst air quality on record to much of the Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast United States. Pollution from small particles called PM2.5 — the fine particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter are the primary air pollution killers — has been far into the “Hazardous” range across five states since Wednesday morning.

The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA pollution records go back to 1999.

The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA PM 2.5 pollution records go back to 1999.

Record 24-hr PM 2.5 air quality on July 16, 2026

Duluth, MN: 934 AQI for PM2.5 (Old record: 159, July 20, 2021)
Toledo, OH (5 monitors): 624 (Old record: 190, June 28, 2023)
Chicago. IL (42 monitors): 511 (Old record: 246, June 28, 2023)
Detroit, MI: 490 (Old record: 226, June 28, 2023)
Cleveland, OH: 297 (Old record: 285, June 28, 2023)
Milwaukee, WI: 414 (Old record: 270, June 27, 2023)
Flint, MI: 343 (Old record: 178, June 27, 2023)
Minneapolis, MN (39 monitors): 251 (Old record: 193, July 29, 2021)
Green Bay, WI (5 monitors): 372 (Old record: 179, June 29, 2023)
Grand Rapids, MI (4 monitors): 482 (Old record: 227, June 27, 2023)
Lansing, MI (2 monitors): 408 (Old record: 194, June 29, 2023)
Buffalo, NY (11 monitors): 206 (Old Record: 176, June 7, 2023)

Record 24-hr PM 2.5 air quality on July 17, 2026

Washington D.C. (21 monitors): 246 AQI at Ashburn, VA, and 234 at Springfield, VA (Old record: 222, June 8, 2023, at Franconia Park, VA)
Pittsburg, PA (25 monitors): 261 (Old record: 237, June 29, 2023)
Dover, DE (2 monitors): 223 (Old record: 207, June 8, 2023)
Columbus, OH (8 monitors): 272 (Old record: 210, June 28, 2023)

Because of the huge number of people affected, and since this is occurring at the same time as a severe humid heat wave, this extreme and widespread pollution event — which will be followed by many months of repeated wildfire smoke incursion into the U.S. — will undoubtedly cause hundreds and perhaps thousands of premature deaths. The only comparable wildfire smoke event affecting this portion of North America occurred in 2023; a 2025 study blamed that event for 33,000 premature deaths in the United States, 8,300 in Canada, and 23,000 in Europe. According to the EPA, a premature air pollution death is one that occurs on average 14 years before a person would have otherwise died.

The climate change connection to the wildfires

As the climate warms, fire danger increases, mostly because the atmosphere gets “thirstier” – more water vapor can evaporate into warmer air. This results in more water vapor evaporating from plants, which dries them out and creates an increased risk of large and intense fires that can generate huge smoke plumes. Most of the fires grew out of control under extreme heat conditions made up to five times more likely by climate change (Fig. 1). According to Climate Central, the heat that helped fuel these fires would have been “highly unlikely” to have occurred in a world without climate change.

Figure 1. Climate Shift Index for Monday, July 13, 2026, showing the factor increase in high temperatures because of human-caused climate change. (Image credit: Climate Central)

Five states recorded “Hazardous” air quality on Thursday

On Thursday, July 16, portions of Ontario and five states — Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio — experienced 24-hour levels of PM2.5 with an air quality index in the “Hazardous” (brown) range. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, these conditions necessitate health warnings of emergency conditions, with the entire population more likely to be affected. Purple “Very Unhealthy” air was observed in three other states — New York, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. This level of pollution triggers a health alert, and everyone – not just people with vulnerabilities – may experience more serious health effects.

Figure 2. Observed 24-hour air quality index (AQI) for PM2.5 pollution for Jul. 16, 2026. Fifty monitors in five states had “Hazardous” air, plus an additional nine monitors in Ontario. (Image credit: EPA)

According to air pollution scientist Ryan Stauffer, yesterday’s air pollution event blows away the previous most extreme wildfire smoke event in this region — in June 2023 — for extremity. During the 2023 event, only about three EPA monitors, all in Pennsylvania, recorded a 24-hour AQI in the hazardous range. But on Thursday, 50 official EPA monitors recorded a 24-hour AQI in the “Hazardous” range (Fig. 2), plus an additional nine monitors in Ontario. According to rankings at iqair.com, Detroit was the most polluted major city worldwide for most of Thursday, with Chicago bumping Detroit out on Thursday night. On Friday morning, the top five most polluted cities in the world were all in North America: Detroit, Chicago, Washington D.C., Toronto, and New York City.

On an hourly scale, some truly extreme AQI readings above 1,000 were recorded Thursday in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The “Hazardous” (brown) range is for an AQI in above 300, so these readings were more than three times beyond the “Hazardous” threshold. The most extreme readings occurred in northern Minnesota downwind of the fires burning in the Boundary Waters park, where an AQI of 3,567 was measured by a purpleair.com sensor.

How the trouble started: record heat and a record-strong high-pressure system

The wildfire event began on Monday, when the strongest upper-level ridge of high pressure ever observed in the north-central U.S. baked the region. All-time record heat exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8°C) was observed, worsening existing moderate to severe drought conditions. Thunder Bay, Ontario, on the north shore of frigid Lake Superior, hit 39.5 degrees Celsius (103.1°F), smashing its all-time heat record by over 2°C. To the north, Armstrong hit 40.7°C (105.3°F), the hottest temperature observed in all of Ontario since the great Dust Bowl heat wave of July 1936.

Strong winds moved in with the heat, fanning multiple wildfires that feasted on the dry fuels, which featured plenty of dead trees from a spruce budworm infestation and a 1999 derecho event that felled thousands of trees. Extreme fires with a rapid rate of spread resulted and created at least two massive pyrocumulus clouds — giant thunderstorms spawned by the heat of intense fires that reached the stratosphere. Tomer Burg has an excellent thread explaining the meteorology that led up to the wildfire event:

How to interpret PM 2.5 readings at airnow.gov and purpleair.com

You can access EPA’s real-time PM2.5 NowCast AQI numbers at https://www.airnow.gov (note that you can’t just type in “airnow.gov” to get to the website, since they haven’t configured it to allow that). The AQI numbers are updated once per hour (shortly after the top of the hour). Because the EPA standard is based on a 24-hour average, the raw hourly data is not reported. Instead, EPA’s NowCast AQI numbers are computed using a 12-hour weighted average from the past 12 hours of data.

When air quality is highly variable (e.g., during a wildfire or a sudden wind shift), the algorithm heavily weights the past 1-3 hours. Otherwise, the past 12 hours are weighted nearly equally, and the AQI number is a 12-hour average. At the end of a day, the official daily AQI is calculated using a true arithmetic 24-hour average.

Don’t miss out: If you sign up by August 1 to support our extreme weather coverage with a monthly donation, you’ll be invited to an exclusive conversation with our meteorologists later this season. Become a monthly supporter of Jeff Masters, Bob Henson, and Irene Sans’s extreme weather coverage today.  Donate

In contrast, the AQI numbers at purpleair.com update every few seconds, so you get a much better idea of rapid changes in air quality. Clicking on a dot will bring up a graph of the past few days of data; the default averaging time for this graph is 10 minutes, but you can change this to a longer time span. Important: you need to choose “US EPA” in the “Apply Conversion” setting, or else the PM 2.5 readings will be too high.

The current situation: over 20 large fires out of control

As of Friday, there were 193 active fires covering 1.7 million acres (673,000 ha) in Ontario, with the vast majority of these considered to be “out of control,” according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Of the 22 large fires in over 2,000 acres burning nearest the U.S. border, 18 were receiving a full fire-fighting response, and four were not being fought. In the U.S., the National Interagency Fire Center reported six large fires in northern Minnesota, all 0% contained, covering 60,000 acres.

Figure 3. Monthly fire assessment for North America for July 2026 (left) and August 2026 (right). Red shading indicates areas where conditions would favor increased fire activity. Green shading indicates areas where conditions would favor decreased fire activity. (image credit: National Interagency Fire Center).

The forecast: relief coming by Saturday for the worst-affected states

Thunderstorms moved over the Minnesota/Ontario fire area Friday morning, bringing up to two inches of rain. This water will help firefighting efforts, but the fire danger index in Ontario is still high to very high, and the thunderstorms may have sparked additional fires.

The cold front accompanying this storm will bring westerly winds that should flush the worst of the smoke out of Chicago and Wisconsin by Friday afternoon, and out of Michigan by early Saturday morning. However, a renewed invasion of smoke is predicted for Michigan and Wisconsin Saturday night into Sunday, bringing more “Hazardous” AQI conditions. Another pulse of smoke is predicted to move deep into the central U.S. on Wednesday, perhaps reaching Arkansas and Missouri.

We can anticipate that some of the major smoke-emitting fires in Minnesota/Ontario will continue to burn for an extended period, with some lasting until the first snows come in October. The long-range fire assessment (Fig. 3) calls for above-average fire risk over much of the forested areas of northern Canada and the western U.S. this summer, and we should anticipate frequent bouts of poor air quality from wildfire smoke across much of North America. July and August are usually the peak months of fire season, which typically extends well into September. A potent North American Monsoon is now bringing heavy rains to parts of the southwest U.S., so the overall fire risk in that region may decrease to average levels by August.

Many lightning-caused fires occurred in the Pacific Northwest yesterday. With hot, windy weather expected to move in during the coming week, some of these fires may well become significant smoke producers.

Climate change predicted to further worsen wildfires

The number of people in the U.S. who experienced at least one day each year with smoke-related fine particle pollution levels at three times over the EPA standard has increased 27-fold over the last decade, and we can expect climate change to significantly worsen wildfire smoke problems in North America in the coming years.

For example, the frequency and magnitude of extreme wildfires around the globe have doubled in the past 21 years because of climate change, according to a study published last year in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution. Rising temperatures have ushered in an era of hotter and drier weather, lending the right conditions for wildfires to erupt, the researchers found.

Here are some additional resources on climate change and wildfires:

• Explore how climate change has worsened wildfire smoke.
• Explore how fire weather has changed in your area on Climate Central’s interactive map.
• Visit their More U.S. Fire Weather analysis for science background and methodology.
• Explore our guide to staying safe from wildfires and smoke.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

I’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is. With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.

The multi-model median for the event’s peak (measured as detrended sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific) currently stands at 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record of 2.75C set in 2015-16. For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.

Peak monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly for every El Niño event since 1877, with each event measured against its own era’s centered 30-year climatology (the ONI convention, applied at monthly resolution to match the forecasts’ monthly values). Events after 1950 (blue) use ERSSTv5; earlier events (open gold) use the HadISST reconstruction. The 2026-27 forecast shows the weighted median of 667 ensemble member peaks from 14 models (July 2026 initializations, members weighted so each model counts equally), with the bar spanning the middle 80% of members.

A few things stand out in this figure. First, no event in a century and a half of observations has ever pushed meaningfully past 2.75C. The legendary 1877-78 event comes closest, in a statistical dead heat with 2015-16 (2.73C vs 2.75C, well within the uncertainty of 19th-century ship data). Second, the middle 80% of this year’s forecast ensemble sits entirely at or above that all-time record: even the low end of the plume (2.8C) grazes it. Around 91% of ensemble members exceed the 2015-16 record at their peak.

To see what this would look like as the event unfolds, we can compare the forecast trajectory against the five strongest events ever observed, month by month through the development year and into the following spring.

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly trajectories for the five strongest observed El Niño events across their development year and decay, against the 2026-27 multi-model forecast. Note that the expected peak (3.6C) sits slightly above the top of the dashed median trajectory (3.5C): individual models peak in different months (e.g. CFSv2 in November, ECMWF in December) so the median of the individual model peaks runs a bit higher than the peak of the median line.

What is remarkable here is not just the level but the trajectory. The 2026 event is developing faster than 1997-98, the previous gold standard for explosive El Niño onsets. And unlike 2015 which started its year already warm from a precursor event, this one launched from genuinely La Niña-ish conditions in January.

Of course, a multi-model median can hide a lot of disagreement, so it is worth looking at where each individual model puts the peak. The figure below shows the distribution of member peaks across all 14 models.

Peak 2026 Niño 3.4 forecast: model-weighted histogram of each ensemble member’s July-December 2026 maximum (top) and per-model medians with 10-90% member ranges (bottom).

Every single model’s median peak lands at very strong (”super”) El Niño intensity, and all but one (JAMSTEC’s SINTEX-F, at 2.2C) put their median above the 2015-16 record. Model agreement this strong is unusual, though I’d note that agreement is not the same thing as skill as I discuss later on.

Long-time readers may recall that in a warming world, the raw Niño 3.4 anomaly risks conflating El Niño with the broader ocean warming trend. NOAA’s answer is the relative ONI (RONI), which subtracts the tropical-mean SST anomaly to isolate the ENSO signal. In RONI terms the record holder is actually 1982-83 (a peak monthly value of 2.69C), not 2015-16. However, even using RONI the multi-model median in 11 of the 14 models shows a record event.

As above, but for the relative Niño 3.4 index (RONI): Niño 3.4 anomaly minus the 20S-20N tropical-mean anomaly, with the L’Heureux et al. (2024) variance-restoration scaling applied. The record event in RONI terms is 1982-83 (a peak monthly value of 2.69C).

Putting the two together: models give a ~91% chance of a record peak in Niño 3.4 terms and ~77% in RONI terms this year. Whichever way you slice the index, the forecast says the same thing: this is more likely than not to be the strongest El Niño ever observed.

So how did we get here? The forecast has been building all spring. The figure below shows how each model’s projection evolved from its March run through its July run, against observed monthly conditions.

Ensemble-mean Niño 3.4 forecast from each model’s March, April, May, June and July 2026 runs (blues deepening with recency; July in red with its full member range shaded), against observed monthly means from the daily OISSTv2.1 series (black). One corrupted NCAR-CESM1 ensemble member is excluded from the July run for clarity.

Nearly every panel shows the same thing: each successive run warmer than the last, across five months and thirteen independent modeling systems.2 This pattern of sustained revision as initialization improves is the classic signature of a real intensifying event rather than model noise. The reason is visible in the black line: observed conditions kept outrunning the forecasts. (Though credit where credit is due: NCAR’s CESM1 was calling ~4C back in March when that looked absurd, and I and others called it out as unrealistic at the time. The ensemble has since converged toward it.)

The combined multi-model picture makes the same point more concisely.

The model-weighted median Niño 3.4 forecast from each monthly initialization, March through July 2026 (July with its 10-90% member band), against observed monthly OISSTv2.1.

The peak median has climbed from ~2.8C in the March runs to 3.6C in July — though notably the revisions are decelerating (+0.5C, +0.14C, +0.14C over the last three cycles), suggesting the forecast is converging rather than still escalating.

It is also worth looking at what this event looks like spatially. The figure below maps each model’s SST anomaly field at its own forecast peak month.

Sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts at each model’s own 2026 peak month (the July-December month maximizing its Niño 3.4 mean), from the July 2026 initializations of 6 NMME models, 7 C3S centres, and SINTEX-F (seasonal mean, June initialization). Niño 3.4 region boxed; panels ordered warmest first.

The classic east-Pacific El Niño tongue is there in every model. I’d flag CMCC as the outlier to discount: its 5.3C peak sits a full 1.3C above the next warmest model. Because we are looking at the multi-model median, even discounting CMCC doesn’t change the overall forecast meaningfully.

Meanwhile, the ocean is not waiting for the models. Daily SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are already running around 2C above their era-adjusted average – the threshold for a very strong (”super”) El Niño if sustained – and it is only mid-July. The figure below puts this in context, showing the daily Niño 3.4 anomaly for every year in the satellite record, with each year measured against its own era’s climatology so the long-term warming trend doesn’t mess up the comparison.

Daily Niño 3.4 SST anomaly for every year since 1982, from NOAA OISSTv2.1 (final plus near-real-time) via NOAA CoastWatch ERDDAP. Each year is referenced to its own centered 30-year day-of-year climatology (the ONI convention), removing the long-term warming trend. 2026 is shown in red; the great El Niño development years 2015 and 1997 are highlighted for comparison.

No prior year in the 45-year record has been anywhere near this warm this early: not 1997 (+1.6C at this date), the previous benchmark for an explosive onset, and not 2015 (+1.3C). And El Niño almost always peaks near the end of the calendar year – typically between November and January, occasionally as early as October – so the physics of ENSO’s seasonal phase-locking says there is likely a good deal of intensification still to come.3

What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin. But a strengthening El Niño does load the dice for late 2026: our dashboard currently gives this year a non-trivial chance (~28%) of edging out 2024 as the warmest on record, up from ~13% at the start of the month..

I want to end with an important caveat about these numbers: the models have never been verified in this territory. Seasonal forecast systems have real, demonstrated skill at this lead time for ordinary events, but no ensemble has ever forecast (and then verified against) a 3.6C El Niño, because one has never happened. Model agreement is reassuring, but it is not proof. But the uncertainties can cut both ways, and the observed ocean, not just the models, is already in uncharted waters.

As always, for daily updates on the El Niño forecast and global temperatures head over to our Climate Dashboard.

1 I referred to it as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas” at the time, which might be the only time something I said ever went properly viral online.

2 The SINTEX-F model is not included in this plot as I only began tracking it in July.

3 The lone exception in the modern record is the unusual two-year 1986-88 event, which reached its ONI maximum in August 1987. Every other strong event since 1950 peaked between October and January.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 12, 2026 thru Sat, July 18, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)

• New research : Doomsday Glacier ice shelf could 'give way any day now' "Just have a Think" on Youtubue, Dave Borlace, July 5, 2026.
• Grey whales are dying along our shores. Researchers say a warming climate may be part of the problem Although a number of factors may be contributing to the die-off, scientists say it’s likely at least partly due to climate change. Melting Arctic ice and warmer waters may be reducing the number of small sea creatures the whales rely on for food, and altering the selection of what does remain. CBC'', Brandie Weikle, Laura Lynch, Jul 12, 2026.
• The Strongest El Niño Ever With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin. The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 13, 2026.
• Global warming's new wrinkle - it's too hot for nuclear reactors to operate The scorching summer in the U.S. and Europe and wildfires across both continents are well documented, but global warming flexed its power in a new way this week as France said it shut down a handful of nuclear reactors because of the extreme heat. Callaway Climate Insights, David Callaway, Jul 14, 2026.
• Climate Change Contributes to a Smokier World Higher temperatures and drought conditions are contributing to more intense wildfires and extending the summer fire season in North America. NYT, Quinn Glabicki, Jul 16, 2026.
• Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 17, 2026.
• Dangerous and historic wildfire smoke pollution event engulfs the U.S. and Canada Most of the fires grew out of control under extreme heat conditions made up to five times more likely by climate change. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Jul 17, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• Scientists finally solved the mystery of Earth's greatest mass extinction According to the researchers, the work also has important implications for the present. The environmental conditions before the Great Dying resembled the relatively cool, oxygen rich oceans that existed for millions of years before human activities began rapidly altering Earth's climate through fossil fuel emissions. ScienceDaily, Stanford University press office, Jul 12, 2026.
• Changes in Funding Could Tank Quality of Ocean Heat Content Data An uncertain funding landscape threatens the longevity of an ocean observation system critical to projecting tropical storms, sea level rise, and more. Eos, Grace van Deelen, Jul 13, 2026.
• A deep pool of extremely warm water is available to fuel El Niño in summer 2026 Climate.us, Rebecca Lindsey, July 16, 2026.
• The report oil companies are worried about: Climate attribution science New report says our ability to tie weather damages to climate change is improving. Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jul 17, 2026.
• As climate extremes collide, attribution science evolves A National Academy of Sciences report on extreme climate event attribution confronts political climate denialism with scientific evidence. Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Jul 17, 2026.
• "iT'S CaLLeD SuMmER" Dr Gilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, July 17, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• Trump taps climate skeptic to run US government`s flagship climate report Matthew Wielicki frequently criticizes established climate science online, including in videos from rightwing PragerU The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Jul 10, 2026.
• The Climate Deal Trump Won`t Kill CORSIA, the global aviation climate scheme run by the UN’s aviation body (ICAO), may be the only climate agreement Trump will never try to kill precisely because it asks almost nothing of the United States, or of airlines anywhere in the world. CleanTechnica, William Todts, Jul 13, 2026.
• An extraordinary White House meeting NYT, David Gelles, Jul 14, 2026.
• Political representatives found more polarized on climate change than their constituents Phys.org, University of Konstanz, Jul 16, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• Sweeping victory for Europe as 15 nations top climate scoreboard Europe has come top in the latest Environmental Performance Index, partly due to the boom in renewables. But experts warn that more progress is needed. EuroNews, Liam Gilliver, Jul 12, 2026.
• Renewables, Led By Solar, Were Largest Source of Energy Supply Growth Globally in 2025 Solar achieved 30% growth in 2025 and its share of total power generation reached 8.7% – surpassing wind (8.4%) for the first time and almost equalling nuclear’s share of 8.8%. Behind solar, wind power was the second largest source of renewables growth in 2025, increasing by 8.2% year-on-year. CleanTechnica, Zachary Shahan, Jul 13, 2026.
• The Fake Air-Conditioner Climate Debate ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy, July 13, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 5, 2026 thru Sat, July 11, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jul 12, 2026.
• You can help scientists study walruses A global science project is asking volunteers to search Arctic satellite images for the animals, which are threatened by climate change. Yale Climate Connections, YCC Team, Jul 14, 2026.
• National Academies Report Backs Climate Change Attribution Science Attribution science is advancing quickly, researchers said. That could support lawsuits seeking damages for severe events worsened by global warming. New York Times, Raymond Zhong, Jul 16, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• Why climate scientists need to talk more about the very worst-case scenarios The Conversation, Peter Stott, Jul 13, 2026.
• Daniel Swain PhD: New Climate Denial, Same as the Old Climate Denial 'New Climate Denial" is not so new after all. This is Not Cool, greenman3610, Jul 14, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• He sued the oil industry for $51B. Now he faces Republicans in a private grilling. The fossil fuel industry and its allies have targeted the science that factors into many of the climate lawsuits for nearly a decade; with attribution science showing how fossil fuel companies supercharge extreme weather the industry claims that the growing field exists solely to propel litigation. Politico, Lesley Clark, Hailey Fuchs, Corbin Hiar and Chelsea Harvey, Jul 15, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• The 13 biggest myths about heatwaves – and how to bust them With some still unable to accept humanity’s role in climate chaos, we tackle common misconceptions and deceptions The Guardian, Jonathan Watts, July 11, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Do electric vehicles stop working in extreme heat? No - Extreme heat can temporarily reduce range, but recent research does not show that EVs are unable to operate in hot weather. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, July 14, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society

For decades, multinational fossil fuel companies have strategically promoted discourses to obstruct climate action. Initially, the fossil fuel industry publicized communications that denied the role of fossil fuels in climate destabilization. Recently, however, they have advanced nuanced messages to delay climate action and policy. As the climate crisis worsens and calls to phase out fossil fuels intensify, research into the industry has revealed pervasive “greenwashing” and a discrepancy between external messaging on renewable energy and internal operational positions. Corporate annual reports, which are public-facing communications, offer insights into how companies align their internal strategy with their external messaging. Based on a textual analysis of the annual reports of four of the largest fossil fuel companies (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies), this research compares how companies have adapted their communication strategies about renewable energy between 2016 and 2022.

When algorithms decide the climate: AI, disinformation, and the crisis of environmental truth in the Anthropocene, Vidal, PLOS Climate [commentary]

We often describe the Anthropocene as a planetary emergency. Yet beneath the ecological upheaval lies a deeper and more destabilising fracture: the erosion of environmental truth [1]. By environmental truth, I refer to the collectively negotiated understanding of climate and ecological realities, shaped by scientific, social, and technological processes. Climate knowledge today is reported, debated, and contested, but increasingly it is computed [2]. Algorithmic infrastructures now decide what becomes visible, credible, and politically actionable. My argument here is direct: AI systems and digital platforms have become co-producers of environmental truth, and this reconfigures the very conditions under which climate policy, public debate, and democratic decision-making occur. The Anthropocene is as much a crisis of meaning as it is of ecology.

When models outrun politics: Biofuels as a stress test for scenario plausibility, Hedenus, Energy Research & Social Science

Long-term energy scenarios often assign a substantial role to biofuels in net-zero pathways, despite decades of policy support and limited evidence of sustained cost reductions or large-scale diffusion. Using biofuels as a critical case, this paper examines a broader problem in scenario construction: the misalignment between modelled technology pathways and socio-technical feasibility. Drawing on innovation theory, learning-curve evidence, and observed patterns of policy support and investment, it argues that biofuels are constrained by a configuration of mutually reinforcing limitations, including feedstock-dominated costs, weak learning dynamics, and permanent policy dependence. These constraints do not form a simple causal chain, but jointly limit the conditions under which large-scale competitiveness could emerge. Despite this, energy system and integrated assessment models often project extensive biofuel deployment under assumptions that abstract from political volatility and investment risk. The paper argues for greater use of empirical plausibility checks to improve the relevance of long-term energy scenarios.

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly, Foster & Rahmstorf, Geophysical Research Letters

Recent record-hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade.

Compound coldwave and freezing-snow events decrease during 1994−2023 over global land area, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research

With accelerating global warming, compound climate extremes pose amplified threats to ecosystems and socio-economic stability. However, the occurrence and evolution of Compound Coldwave and Freezing-Snow (CCFS) events in a warming climate remain a critical knowledge gap. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal changes of CCFS characteristics, including its frequency, duration, and severity from 1964 to 2023, by integrating daily minimum temperature data from Berkeley Earth with hourly precipitation amount and precipitation type data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The spatial distribution of CCFS events exhibits a pronounced interhemispheric asymmetry, with over 90% of occurrences located in the Northern Hemisphere. Mid- to high-latitude regions of Eurasia and North America, where show the highest CCFS frequency, also experienced substantial temporal changes. Compared to the earlier period (1964−1993), notable declines in CCFS frequency, total duration, deficit heat, and combined severity are observed across most land regions during the recent warming period (1994−2023). Globally averaged trends reveal a faster reduction in CCFS frequency and total duration, as opposed to a slower decline in deficit heat and combined severity. The reduction has been particularly rapid in the top 20% most affected land areas, concentrated in subtropical North America, northern/eastern Europe, and Siberia. In these regions, average event frequency, duration, deficit heat, and combined severity declined markedly from approximately 3.5 events, 28 d, −44 °C, and 25 in 1964 to about 2 events, 18 d, −14 °C, and 17 in 2023. However, the average duration per event extends from 1964 to 2023, especially across mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, CCFS frequency and duration demonstrate a nearly linear decrease with global warming, while severity indicators follow a nonlinear, logarithmic decay. This disparity indicates distinct sensitivities among different CCFS characteristics. For all CCFS indicators except average duration, the linear component of the response outweighs the nonlinear component. The results will aid forecasting efforts and help to improve hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (68% versus 16%). By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans are more likely to think global warming is mostly human-caused (59%) than to think it is mostly caused by natural changes in the environment (27%). 66% of Americans say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, including 29% who say they are “very worried.” 59% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 35% who think weather is being affected “a lot.” 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.

Cheaper. Cleaner. Unstoppable. Clean technologies that are delivering for the climate, James Haselip and Lakshmi Bhamidipati, United Nations Environment Program

At a time when climate risks are intensifying, this policy briefs highlights a powerful and hopeful shift: many clean solutions are no longer niche—they are becoming the new normal. Across energy, transport, buildings and food systems, “positive tipping points” are emerging. As costs fall, technologies scale, and public support grows, adoption is accelerating in self reinforcing ways. Solar power, electric mobility, and sustainable cooling are proving that climate action can be economically competitive, socially beneficial and globally scalable. This report shows that the transition is not only possible—it is already underway. With the right policies, investments and partnerships, we can amplify these positive tipping points, unlock cascading benefits, and deliver a future that is more resilient, equitable and sustainable. 287 articles in 92 journals by 1998 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A strong constraint on radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases, Feng et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-026-10289-x

A Weakened East Asian Winter Monsoon Triggered Record-Breaking Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea During 2023–2024, Lu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024234

Bipolar Oceanic Processes Drive Indonesian Throughflow Decline Under Climate Warming, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121630

Contrasting Responses of Dissolved Oxygen in the Northern Benguela Upwelling System to Four Decades of Warming, Salama et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023848

Deep ocean control of global temperature after net-zero emissions, Lee et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01934-1

Drivers of Trends in Northern Hemisphere Cold Spell Characteristics Over 1980–2025, Osmolska et al., White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) pmh:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:242617

Dry and moist convective upper bounds for near-surface temperatures, Nicolas & Hotz, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-843-2026

Marine Heatwaves in the Java Sea, Indonesia: Characteristics and Atmospheric Onset Drivers, Bayhaqi & Iskandar, Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.6084/m9.figshare.31444423

Ocean acidification as a planetary signal linking Earth system memory to deep-time lithosphere–ocean geochemical interactions, Das & Choudhury, Earth-Science Reviews Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105623

Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability, Sheng et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee8136

Sea-surface temperature variability and climate drivers in Cuba's Jardines de la Reina National Park (2003–2022), Castillo-Álvarez et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1409-2026

The Arctic overturning circulation: transformations, pathways and timescales, Dörr et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-565-2026

The Response of the Global Overturning Circulation to Recent and Projected Antarctic Meltwater Changes, Gülk et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024622

Understanding the Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Carbon Dioxide and Sea Surface Temperature Increases in Aqua-Planet Simulations, Johnson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045481

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The correlation between Arctic sea ice, cloud phase and radiation using A-Train satellites, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7899-2024 12 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Assessing climate change impacts on heat waves and heat index: a case study of Uttar Pradesh, India, Awasthi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1679941

Attribution of the 2022 Asian Spatially Compound Heatwave-Flooding Event to Atmospheric Circulation, La Niña and Anthropogenic Warming, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd045461

Burned Area Over Africa Reduced by Shortened Dry Season, Mohammed et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121751

California Temperature Since 1520 CE Shows Interactions in Extremes of Heat, Drought, and Fire, Harley et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118590

Century-Scale Climate Evolution in Semiarid High Plateaus, Algeria, Rouabhi, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0181.1

Climate impacts from North American boreal forest fires, Gerrevink et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01940-3

Compound coldwave and freezing-snow events decrease during 1994−2023 over global land area, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.032

Drivers of Trends in Northern Hemisphere Cold Spell Characteristics Over 1980–2025, Osmolska et al., White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) pmh:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:242617

Emerging dryland flooding, Bai et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105612

From stationary to non-stationary: Characterizing extreme precipitation behavior in an arid environment, Nikoo, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109212

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly, Foster & Rahmstorf, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118804

Intensifying droughts, heatwaves, and compound drought–heatwave events and their spatiotemporal patterns in Africa (1979–2024), TIAN et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100879

Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies, Santer et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av002196

Nonlinear increase of compound drought-heatwave events since the early 2000s, Kim et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea3038

Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024, Farago et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-451-2026

Rainfall and Rain-on-Snow Events Over Greenland in Summer: Climatology, Trends, Synoptics, Frame et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044726

Seasonal characteristics and trends in precipitation partitioning in the Arctic, Cast et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2127-2026

Spatiotemporal Variations in Warm Season Heat Extremes in the Midwestern United States, 1959–2020, Rasaq-Balogun & Schoof, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0202.1

Warming of the high-mountainous climate sensitive Jammu and Kashmir during the period 1980–2024, Gopikrishnan et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-61302-2

Winter Warmth: Quantifying Historical Changes in Very Warm Winter Days across the United States, Martin et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0120.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 21 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A satellite-based approach for estimating runoff and river discharge in the Pan-Arctic region from 2003 to 2022, Leopardi et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115353

A standardized permafrost ground temperature collection for Canada 2025, Meier-Legault et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18675016

Advancing Climate Services in South Asia: The SARCI Framework for Actionable Climate Information and Regional Capacity Building, Bhuyan et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0172.1

Earth observation for land representation: implementing the Paris Agreement requirements for greenhouse gas reporting, Cima et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2638495

Low Cross-Product Agreement in Global Coastal Marine Heatwaves (1982–2023) and Implications for Trend Attribution, Sun et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124134

Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies, Santer et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av002196

Performance of gauge-based and reanalysis gridded temperature datasets in representing means and extremes across different climate zones of the Brazos River Basin, United States, Tarkegn et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1731069

The Observed Circumpolar Decline of Antarctic Bottom Water Volume, Wyatt et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121359

Trends and Sensitivities of Low-Cloud Cover and Top Height From Spaceborne Lidar Observations, Tesche et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122478

Trends in Atmospheric Radiative Cooling from Satellite, Reanalyses, and CMIP6 Datasets, Jouan et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0511.1

Weather and Climate Extremes: Simplex, Dynamical Systems and Hull Clustering, Hannachi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045044

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4791 7 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing the Likelihood of Unprecedented Antarctic Heat in the Current Climate, Suitters et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0436.1

Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model, Sieber et al., Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/800243

Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model, Westen et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1353-2026

Dynamically downscaled future projections of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean across low to high emissions scenarios, Kim et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1987-2026

Extreme Coastal Waves Due To Australian East Coast Lows in a Warming Climate, Deshmukh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023405

Future Climate Projections of Hazardous Convective Weather Using an Ensemble of Environment-Informed, Convection-Permitting Dynamical Downscaling Simulations, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045354

Robust Yet Diverse Tropical Responses to Antarctic Meltwater Across Models, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120291

The Antarctic Peninsula under present day climate and future low, medium-high and very high emissions scenarios, Davies et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1730203

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Emergence of lake conditions that exceed natural temperature variability, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01491-5 40 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A statistical-dynamical method for projecting temperature across multiple SSPs from a limited subset: A CMIP6 case study, Xie et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.030

Accessible Climate and Impact Model Output for Studying the Human and Environmental Impacts of Nuclear Conflict, Harrison et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70076

AerChemMIP2 – unraveling the role of reactive gases, aerosol particles, and land use for air quality and climate change in CMIP7, Fiedler et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026

CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities, Li et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026

Marine Secondary Aerosols Are Required for Modeling Clouds in the Arctic, Lapere et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121724

MESMER v1.0.0: consolidating the modular Earth system model emulator into a sustainable research software package, Bauer et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-5669-2026

Modifying Mountains in Models Reduces Wet Bias in Western North America, Sexton et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0428.1

Optimizing global forest burned area simulations: Multi-earth system model assessment, Bayesian model averaging synthesis, and climate drivers, Wang & Di, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105390

The PolarRES dataset: a state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for understanding Antarctic climate, Gilbert et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026

Uneven Spatial Distribution of Arctic Warming in Boreal Winter and CMIP6 Historical Simulation Bias, Bao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046383

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Improving CMIP6 Atmospheric River Precipitation Estimation by CycleConsistent Generative Adversarial Networks, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2023jd040698 28 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A standardized permafrost ground temperature collection for Canada 2025, Meier-Legault et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18675016

Brief communication: Inferring Glacier Equilibrium Line Altitudes in the Europe Alps with FROST, Herrmann et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-3817-2026

Brief communication: Uncertainties in Southern Ocean sea surface conditions and their impact on Antarctic climate over 1958–1978, Dalaiden & Bethke, cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-2089-2026

Changes in 1958–2019 Greenland surface mass balance are attributable to both greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, Kuo et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-2317-2026

Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Lead Width Distribution: Model Development and Experiments, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024245

Changes in glacier mass balance and their drivers in the Kangri Karpo Mountains from 1980 to 2023, Ji et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.034

Contrasting dynamics of lake- and marine-terminating glaciers under same climatic conditions, Vacek et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3827-2026

Fracture-driven weakening amplifies projected ice loss from West Antarctica, Blasco et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2601529123

Future Retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier and Hintereisferner – application of a full-Stokes model to two valley glaciers in the European Alps, Rückamp et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2999-2026

High Fraction of Glacial Meltwater Along Two Separate Isopycnals Observed in Summer 2020 Near and Off the Pine Island and Thwaites Ice Shelves, West Antarctica, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023212

Long-term variations in precipitation types (rain, snow, and sleet) on the Tibetan Plateau: Implications for the cryosphere and ecohydrological systems, LI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.03.009

Modelling the sensitivity of ice loss to calving front retreat rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Barnes et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-777-2026

Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing, Shafeeque et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-875-2026

Recent Observations of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Are Consistent With High Rates of Loss in Next 50 Years, Goldberg et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118823

Regime transitions in Arctic surface momentum balance reveal persistent and predictable dynamical states, Liu & Liang, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75328-7

Review article: 30 years of airborne radar surveys on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Franke et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2485-2026

Skillful multiyear prediction of Atlantic sector Arctic Sea ice and its link to AMOC variability, Li et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.21118022

Synergistic effects of precipitation and phase changes intensify future rain-on-snow events in the Tianshan and Pamir regions, Central Asia, Yang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100833

Tidal Mixing on the Antarctic Continental Slope Enhances Ocean Heat Transport With Implications for Sea Ice, Hus et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122819

Wind-triggered Antarctic sea-ice decline preconditioned by thinning Winter Water, Spira et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02601-4

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Degradation and local growth of “Xing'an-Baikal” permafrost responding to climate warming and the consequences, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104865 46 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model, Westen et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1353-2026

Sea-level rise in a coastal marsh: linking increasing tidal inundation, decreasing soil strength and increasing pond expansion, Huyzentruyt et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-751-2026

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Barriers and facilitators for using palaeoclimate evidence in UK climate decision making, Boyall et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-275-2026

Differences in physiological tolerance to global warming caused the Permian–Triassic transition between the Paleozoic and Modern faunas, Marquez et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2533086123

Global ocean heat content over the past 3 million years, Shackleton et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10116-3

Holocene Climate Changes: Unraveling Processes, Mechanisms, and Impacts Across Spatiotemporal Scales, Tan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120388

Multi-proxy resolved timing of permafrost initiation in a peat plateau, northern Norway, Kiss et al., The Holocene Open Access 10.1177/09596836261432397

Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Changing Temperature and Seasonality in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: Shallow Marine Records From the Salisbury Embayment, USA, Willard et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2025pa005278

The 8.2 Ka Abrupt Climate Event: Causes, Impacts and Future Implications, Dixit & Kumari, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70050

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model, Climate of the past, 10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024 2 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate Change Projected to Increase Rates of Background Tree Mortality Across Eastern North America, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70995

Climate Warming Drives Northward Contraction and Genetic erosion in a Cold-Adapted Soil Worm Species, Chen et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70236

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Limit the Role of Non-Native Trees for Adaptation Processes of European Forests, Hazarika et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73999

Coral Reef Protection May Help Avert Risks to People, Property, and Economic Activity Caused by Projected Reef Degradation, Storlazzi et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef006255

Declining Vegetation Response to Soil Moisture and Vapor Pressure Deficit in Inner Mongolian Grasslands, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0597.1

Deeper waters, more calcifiers: Spatial variation in benthic assemblages highlight conservation challenges in sub-Antarctic Marine Protected areas, Bergagna et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107889

Developmental Stage-Specific Responses to Extreme Climatic Events and Environmental Variability in Great Tit Nestlings, Satarkar et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70794

Effects of Marine Heatwaves on Chlorophyll-A Concentration and Carbon Uptake in the Northwest Pacific over the past Decade, Dong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024050

Elevated CO2 and warming intensify plant reliance on soil nitrogen reserves despite intensive fertilization, Zhu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75147-w

Exploring turnover dynamics in Iberian Oak forests under climate change scenarios, Passos et al., Discover Conservation Open Access pdf 10.1007/s44353-026-00084-0

Fall and Spring Staging in a Refugia-Dependent Migratory Snake, Jesper et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73890

General Predictions for the Effects of Warming on Competition, Davis et al., Ecology Letters pdf 10.1111/ele.70395

Graminoids Increase Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Thawed Permafrost at the End of the Growing Season, Mollenkopf et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70783

Greater climate sensitivity of older forests than younger forests in the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere, Jin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111081

Heatwaves induce strong vegetation functional suppression rather than structural changes in Sub-Saharan Africa, Okrah et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111351

Heavy Rain, Less Bloom Under Heat: Succession of Size-Structured Phytoplankton Community Without Biomass Increases in a Monsoonal Korean Coastal Ecosystem, Shin et al., Microbial Ecology Open Access 10.1007/s00248-025-02680-4

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate, Jansson et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00806-x

Human-induced intensification of sea surface temperature regime shifts threatens global Large Marine Ecosystems, Xing et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70986-z

Integrating ensemble species distribution modeling and ecological niche dynamics to assess climate-driven distributional changes of two major forest pests (Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis) in China, Yang et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1874688

Long-term monitoring reveals biomass loss and concurrent dominance changes in coastal zooplankton community, Stoffers et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.07958

Marine Heatwave Persistence Drives Phytoplankton Miniaturization and Productivity Decline in the South China Sea, Zhao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023755

Modelling root exudation and plant-microbe interactions under CO2 fertilization in a mature forest, Schufft et al., VU Research Portal pmh:oai:research.vu.nl:openaire_cris_publications/5249553c-3d95-4531-8c0d-286e0b0ec00c

Modelling the impacts of marine heatwaves on plankton in the Salish Sea, Suchy et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4667-2026

Predicting Coral Offspring Survival From Reef Thermal Histories in Ningaloo World Heritage Reef, Nobre, Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.5281/zenodo.21017257

The Interplay of Climate Change, Urbanisation, and Species Traits Shapes European Butterfly Population Trends, Colom et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.70204

Towards rainy high Arctic winters: How experimental icing and summer warming affect tundra plant phenology, productivity and reproduction, Moullec et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70234

Tropical forests are facing increasing risks of exposure to critical temperature thresholds, Tiel et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2528622123

Wallace's pARCs—Making Climate, Climate Change and Biodiversity Data Available to Protected Area Managers and Conservation Planners With an Example From Biebrza National Park, Poland, Price et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70031

Warming summers limit reindeer grazing, weakening herbivory pressure in the mountain tundra, Stoessel et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08209

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Vegetation resistance to increasing aridity when crossing thresholds depends on local environmental conditions in global drylands, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01546-w 41 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Critical Review of Carbon and Phosphorus Linkages in Soils, Ibrahim et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70804

A Drier Year Markedly Enhances Methane, but Not Carbon Dioxide, Emissions in a Mediterranean Reservoir, Ramón et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70979

Air and soil warming have different effects on soil organic carbon storage, Luo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03367-5

An Ice Sheet-to-Ocean Analysis of Carbon Stores and Fluxes in Earth's Polar Regions (RECCAP2, Polar Ice Sheets), Wadham et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008677

An integrated framework combining multi-resolution satellite data, deep learning, and process-based modeling for urban carbon accounting, Dhawi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1787442

Carbon exchange in a tropical montane rainforest: Annual budgets, drivers, and anomalies, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111049

Changes in Oceanic Carbon Storage Due to Anthropogenic Carbon Input Over the Past Three Decades, Hong & Zemskova, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN pdf 10.1080/07055900.2026.2660361

Exploring the dynamic impact of biomass energy, deforestation, fossil fuels and green technology on greenhouse gas emissions in China, Chen & Arshad, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1695374

Greenhouse Gas Emission Characteristics and Mitigation Pathways of Wastewater Treatment Plants Based on Monthly Emission Data, Zhou et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70037

Impacts of historical land cover changes on carbon stocks in the Itacaiúnas River Basin, eastern Amazon, Cavalcante et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1724355

Interannual Variability of Oceanic Carbon Uptake Associated With Long-Term Sea-Ice Loss in the Western Arctic Ocean, Zhou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023831

Methane exchange in a California oak savanna: insights from tree stem, soil, and ecosystem fluxes, Kasak et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111347

Millennial-aged peat carbon outgassed by large humic lakes in the Congo Basin, Drake et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01924-3

Millennial-aged peat carbon outgassed by large humic lakes in the Congo Basin, Drake et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01924-3

Observation-constrained sensitivities of Arctic methane emissions to warming, Liu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2523274123

Peak season soil GHG exchange after 23 years of ungulate exclusion in an old-growth temperate forest, Philipsen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111329

Peat fires contribute disproportionately to Siberian fire carbon emissions, Khairoun et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adl2368

Photosynthesis, heat, and structure: an evident hierarchy of environmental conditions driving wetland carbon assimilation, Romero et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115339

Projecting nitrous oxide over the 21st century, uncertainty related to stratospheric loss, Prather & Wilson, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2524123123

Riverine woodlands as a dynamic source of the marine sedimentary carbon sink, Herzschuh et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag229

Soil black carbon decline following deforestation and farming in karst rocky desertification Southwest Guangxi, China, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1706399

Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of carbon sequestration advantage across ecological zones: a case study from 2000 to 2023 in the Zhangjiakou–Chengde region, China, Huang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1709990

Strong monsoon influence on South Asian methane emissions in 2020 revealed by a Bayesian inversion constrained by satellite observations, Subramanian et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9757-2026

Transcontinental Divergence in Soil Carbon Stock Response to Decades of Wetland Drainage, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70797

Unlocking the climate and market potential of China's blue carbon ecosystems, Benani et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.017

Upland Methane Sinks Under Climate Change: Global Patterns, Drivers and Trends, Cheng et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70747

WaterLANDS: A Database of Carbon Stocks, GHG Fluxes and Biodiversity Indicators in Restored European Wetlands, Ascenzi et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70199

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temperature responses of ecosystem respiration, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00569-3 93 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Adoption of carbon farming schemes: risk matters, Photinodellis et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2623365

Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks, Gasser et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69896-x

Optimized deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in China's cement industry: A scenario-based analysis, Wang et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101948

Temporary carbon dioxide removal to offset short-lived climate forcers, He et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-026-10607-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluating the near- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01527-z 34 cites.

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Decarbonization

Decarbonising UK industrial clusters: the role of green finance and the risk(s) of lock-in, Finkill et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1836939

Decentralized solar adoption in the Global South: A comparative analytical review of pathways, trade-offs, and development outcomes, Shastri et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101991

Drivers, barriers and interventions for green hydrogen supply chains: A multi-actor framework, Luukka et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115160

Energy intensity, offshoring and the illusion of decarbonization, Amadei et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74721-6

Geologic hydrogen: From natural occurrences to anthropogenic generation – A review of fundamentals, potential, challenges and prospects, Liu et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105338

Intensifying research on regional decarbonization through citizen participation and communication: Insights from a Japanese case study, Hatakeyama et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104438

Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe, Kittel et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75342-9

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing, Gong et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115218

Selective and direct hydrogen generation from mixed plastic waste via alkaline thermal treatment with inherent carbon storage, Park et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2537552123

Towards high resolution, validated and open global wind power assessments, Peña-Sánchez et al., JuSER Publikationsportal Open Access 10.34734/fzj-2026-00534

Understanding the resource potential of natural hydrogen on Earth: Scientific gaps, uncertainties and recommendations, Etiope et al., Earth-Science Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105413

Wavelet Analysis of Coastal Near-Surface Wind Speed Over China and Teleconnections to Large-Scale Climate Anomalies, Tan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70509

Wind turbines do not appear to harm health, unlike fossil power plants, Auffhammer, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2614642123

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Circular battery production in the EU: Insights from integrating life cycle assessment into system dynamics modeling on recycled content and environmental impacts, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13527 36 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling, Wang et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-1339-2026

Efficacy assessment of stratospheric aerosol scrubbing as a counter climate intervention strategy, Jones et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-7589-2026

Efficacy assessment of stratospheric aerosol scrubbing as a counter climate intervention strategy, Jones et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-7589-2026

Solar radiation modification in Asia: Current progress, knowledge gaps and future priorities, TANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.005

Targeted marine cloud brightening weakens subsequent El Niño, Wan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adx3012

Aerosols

Asian Dust Emissions under Climate Change, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0680.1

Global expansion of the sensitive aerosol-limited marine cloud regime under emission reductions, Han et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef9665

Reductions in Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Drive Divergent Regional Impacts on Wildfire Risks in China Under Carbon Neutrality, Yang, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17538507

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024 20 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Associations between Climate Extremes Indicators and Changes in Subjective Well-Being in China, Xu et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103133

Backlash, Borders, and Bunkers: Critical Approaches for Research on Antidemocratic Politics and Climate Change Communication, Morris, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2607041

Beyond awareness: navigating the attitude-behavior gap in climate action among urban Egyptian youth, Ead et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1806407

Change in flood and climate risk perceptions after the 2021 flood in Germany: A panel study, Ulrich & Kause, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103129

Climate change on television reaches the engaged but misses distant audiences, Hoppe et al., Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin) Open Access pmh:oai:refubium.fu-berlin.de:fub188/52246

Climate obstruction in unlikely contexts: de-thematization, scare frames, and strategic differentiation in Germany, August et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2644016

Complexities of climate change education in conflict-settings: the case of Birzeit University, Palestine, Jallad & Mukhtarova, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31375946.v1

Discourses of climate delay promoting fossil fuel extraction in Uruguay, Dorronsoro, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2632372

Emotional responses to state repression predict collective climate action intentions, Davies-Rommetveit et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02570-8

Exploring the Association Between Emotions and Policy Support Across Diverse Audience Segments of Climate Change, Thaker & Bhargav, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2590037

How climate justice beliefs motivate youth climate action: Distinct longitudinal emotional pathways and qualitative evidence from a climate-vulnerable and non-Western context, Tabligan et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103126

Ideology, environmental attitudes, and perceived pace of transition: explaining public acceptance of fossil fuel phase-out in Spain, Pérez-Sindín, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2627449

Intraparty polarization on climate change in Republican Party discourse, 1987–2016, Bryant, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2701573

Oil exploration in the Amazon Basin: narratives of disinformation and climate obstruction, Kuzuyabu & Fernandes, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103148

Perceived state capture and corruption regarding climate change: Links to mobilisation, perceptions, and climate action intentions, Zinn et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102937

Professional Engagement With Climate Change Among Five Communities of Practice in Virginia, USA: An Exploratory Study, Myers et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70029

Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society Open Access pdf 10.1186/s13705-026-00565-z

The role of information source in climate beliefs, behavioral commitments, and policy preferences, Goldwert & Vlasceanu, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102896

United we stand, divided we fall: social differences in climate efficacy and beliefs among young people in Flanders, Pauwels et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2592166

When algorithms decide the climate: AI, disinformation, and the crisis of environmental truth in the Anthropocene, Vidal, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000799

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Do People Respond to the Climate Impact of their Behavior? The Effect of Carbon Footprint Information on Grocery Purchases, Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-024-00873-y 36 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A coupled LSTM model for predicting blue carbon and fishery dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands under climate change, Zhang et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-59981-y

A modelling system for identification of maize ideotypes, optimal sowing dates and nitrogen fertilization under climate change – PREPCLIM-v1, Caian et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-627-2026

Bridging smallholder farmers to climate information: the role of agricultural advisors in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Ncoyini-Manciya & Manciya, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1746574

Carbon sequestration potential of mixed garden land use in the Gombong tropical Karst landscape of Central Java, Indonesia, Agniy et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-02894-7

Climate change, disease dynamics, and breeding responses in common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) production in Tanzania: a systematic review (2005–2025), Daud et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1763987

Confidence and uncertainty: Small-scale, direct-marketing vegetable farmers’ relationship with climate change adaptation and mitigation, Webb et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000647

Confidence and uncertainty: Small-scale, direct-marketing vegetable farmers’ relationship with climate change adaptation and mitigation, Webb et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000647

Contrasting Warming Responses of Crops Harvested for Aboveground and Belowground Organs: A Global-Meta Analysis, Ys et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70996

Dual pressures of climate change and wildfire hazard on wine-growing potential in California, Hiraga & Matsumoto, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1838268

Elevated CO2 and warming intensify plant reliance on soil nitrogen reserves despite intensive fertilization, Zhu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75147-w

Impact of forestry carbon sink policies on farmers’ willingness to utilize idle forest land: evidence from Fujian province, China, Tan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1718836

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices of fisherfolk in Ghana toward climate change: A cross-sectional study, Labik et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000813

Living with drought: climate change perceptions, adaptation, and mitigation among farmers in rural Bangladesh, Mahedi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1744133

Meta-modelling of carbon fluxes from crop and grassland multi-model outputs, Hollós et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-4385-2026

Mineral Stabilization Slows Losses of Peatland Carbon Following Long-Term Drainage for Agriculture, Faulkner et al., Apollo (University of Cambridge) Open Access pmh:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/405882

Pastoral resilience under threat: impacts of climate change, invasive plant species, and traditional ecological knowledge erosion in the Kashmir Himalayas, Sheergojri et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101620

Reduced exposure diminishes compound extreme climate risk for rice, yet yield losses intensify across Southeast Asia, Chen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111353

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100708 33 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A depth-duration-frequency model for analysis of extreme precipitation events, with application to past and projected future climates in Ireland, O’Brien et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100862

Beyond Annual Averages: Multi-Scale Rainfall Variability, Drought Indicators, and Seasonal Shifts Under a Changing Climate, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70330

Beyond the 100-year flood: probabilistic flood hazard assessment for King and Pierce Counties under future climate scenarios, Nederhoff et al., Natural hazards and earth system sciences Open Access 10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026

Contrasting Changes in Rainy Season Length, Rainfall Frequency, and Intensity across Eastern Africa, Kisembe et al., White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) pmh:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:236346

Digital transformation in climate change management: tools for managing droughts, floods, and frost in South America: a systematic review, Arana-Ruedas et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1765251

Emerging dryland flooding, Bai et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105612

From stationary to non-stationary: Characterizing extreme precipitation behavior in an arid environment, Nikoo, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109212

Future flood risk concentration for residents near small rivers across the USA, Jiang et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01896-7

Glacier changes and their impact on water resources in the qilian mountains, China between 1970 and 2020, Cao et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1708150

Glacier Retreat Amplifies Interannual Variability in Watershed Runoff, Organic Carbon and Nutrient Yields, Holt et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119026

Insights from Climate Tipping Point Science for the Forthcoming IPCC Seventh Assessment Report and Reflections for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, Stocker et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-26-0119.1

Regional Changes in Precipitation Concentration, Seasonality and Intermittency in China, Xiao-meng et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70199

Seasonal characteristics and trends in precipitation partitioning in the Arctic, Cast et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2127-2026

Synergistic effects of precipitation and phase changes intensify future rain-on-snow events in the Tianshan and Pamir regions, Central Asia, Yang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100833

The opposite trends in precipitation total and extremes during two rain-seasons across Ethiopia, the Water Tower of Africa, Yate & Ren, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100813

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Modeling nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban areas of India under changing climate, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102065 11 cites.

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Climate change economics

Climate Change Projected to Worsen Global Economic Inequality Due To Lost Worker Productivity, Tan et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2026gh001815

G-2 and the climate crisis: How global exports to China and the U.S. drive carbon emissions, 2000–2022, Goh & Jorgenson, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000774

Public spending on health care, education, and sanitation is linked to lower deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon: new empirical support for the climate debt framework, Ravikumar & Zhu, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103089

Returning European Union carbon border adjustment revenues to specific products increases global welfare and reduces emissions, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03357-7

The effects of low-carbon transitions on labour productivity: analysing UK electricity, heat, and mobility with a techno-economic simulation model, Mercure et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2522836

TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT: A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA, Hughes et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Land matters: how Indigenous land restitution can inform loss and damage policy and chart a path toward an otherwise climate justice, Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2024.2378027 11 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Air travel and carbon emissions: global evidence and a UK policy evaluation, Wang, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2633440

Beyond geography, destiny, and politics: Exploring policy styles for industrial decarbonisation in Norway, the United Arab Emirates and the United States, Iskandarova et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104563

Big dilemmas, little time: intergenerational climate justice and public support for deep decarbonisation, Citi & Im, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2633837

Carbon emissions and subjective well-being in Blue Zone Ikaria and Athens, Greece, Radke et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1669144

Carbon taxes and climate action: Lessons from Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina, Muzzi & Pereda, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115191

Climate policy feasibility across Europe relies on the conditional middle, Smith et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02562-8

Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model, Sieber et al., Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/800243

Co-benefit premiums can enhance nature-based climate solutions, Hochard et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02690-1

Commodifying carbon between reconciliation, policies and market schemes: a case study from British Columbia, Canada, Brill & Dürr, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2609396

Global renewable hydrogen certification: Frameworks, gaps, and policies, Hussain & Syron, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115212

Legitimizing wind energy in Brazil: power coalitions, discourse lock-in and transition dynamics, Pulice et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2626624

National climate action can ameliorate, perpetuate, or exacerbate international air pollution inequalities, Nawaz & Henze, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-68827-0

Perspectives on Social and Justice Issues in Climate Policy – Comparing the Just Transitions, Sustainable Welfare and Eco-Social Policy Literatures, Büchs et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70041

Practical implementation of artificial intelligence for climate change mitigation in cities – priorities, collaborations and challenges, Hintz et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104498

The ship has sailed: On the risk of undermining the legitimacy of EU Climate Policy through the implementation of EU ETS 2, Zapletalová, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115221

Unleashing storage by driving electric: A pathway to affordable, secure and clean energy, Palsule et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115138

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Substantial differences in source contributions to carbon emissions and health damage necessitate balanced synergistic control plans in China, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50327-8 44 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A climate-environmental quality screening framework for climate mitigation and adaptation portfolios: a review and action roadmap, Jew & Jiang, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1870126

Adapting and validating a subjective resilience scale to explore individual climate resilience: gendered evidence from Bhutan, Laos and Nepal, MacArthur et al., Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.6084/m9.figshare.31403852

Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation, Cattaneo et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1

Climate-adaptive urban drainage modeling: Assessing future flood hazards in Algiers, Algeria, Lameche et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102843

Development and piloting of the rural water supply climate-resilience monitoring tool (RWS-CRMT), Daniel et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2582560

Energy sovereignty and climate adaptation: A community model for empowering maya women in Ixil, Yucatan, Vega-Camarena et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104345

Energy transitions, clean fuel access and urbanization: a multi-level assessment of climate risk, Yang et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2560489

Exploring intergenerational knowledge transfer within Inuvialuit families: connecting wellbeing, food security, and climate resiliency, Prieto et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1694926

Numerical simulation on the thermal stability of highway embankments in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under different climate warming rates, Xia et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1886025

Overcoming local-scale climate change adaptation implementation lag, Rose et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000998

Prefiguring multispecies justice: how communities are challenging and transfiguring care, labour, and belonging in the midst of climate catastrophe, Sturman et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2025.2467527

Risk Without Values: Including Indigenous Perspectives in Climate Risk Assessments, Scadden et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70309

Supporting migration as a response to climate risk: precarity, adaptive capacity, and well-being dimensions, Tebboth et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101682

The climate-electricity nexus in the GCC: How rising temperatures drive electricity demand across Gulf states, Mikayilov et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115490

The role of international law in governing climate-induced migration: normative gaps and policy innovations, Wen, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2701077

Transformational adaptation from the bottom-up: arts, alternative imaginaries, and everyday forms of resistance, Cass & Tasnim, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2522450

Urban parks as nature-based infrastructure for climate resilient tropical cities: Insights from cooling, carbon, and culture, Wiwoho et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102790

Urban water affordability crisis exacerbated by climate change, Skerker et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01890-z

Values, rules, and knowledge: Understanding and enabling land use change decisions as adaptation to climate change, Cradock-Henry et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104309

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Defining and conceptualizing equity and justice in climate adaptation, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102885 61 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Addressing Climate-Related Mental Health Challenges Among Children, Youth, and People Living With Disabilities: A Population Mental Health Commentary, Abadi et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001597

Analysis of Multiple Measures of Heat Stress on Morbidity and Mortality in Louisiana, Thompson et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0060.1

BIM-PDCA framework for low-carbon hospital operation in hot-summer, warm-winter regions, Rao et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101952

Climate shocks, not just warming, threaten malaria control efforts in Africa, Messina & Carrel, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00491-2

Impact of urbanization and global warming on sea-breeze, heat stress and cooling demand over greater Houston area, Tewari et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108889

Projections of Heat Stress and its Impact on Labour Capacity in North America, Li et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31650458.v1

Public health and wellbeing under compounding climate hazards: the scale of harm is larger than we can currently see, Leppold, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101680

Understanding Mosquito Vector Invasion Pathways: Synergistic Effects of Human Mobility, Climate and Natural Dispersal, Pardo-Araujo et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70317

Urbanization processes widen global divergence in extreme temperature variability, Qiao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75457-z

Valuing wildfire smoke–related mortality benefits from climate mitigation, Qiu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2533772123

Where heat adaptation is needed most - An open-source approach to developing a transferable heat risk index for urban planning, Rupp et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102769

Wildfire smoke increases assaults: evidence from Seattle, Kircheis, Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae436c

‘Water is a good thing, but when it destroys it is not good’: The influence of changing weather patterns on access to antenatal care services in Western Kenya - A qualitative study, Matanda et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000882

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Soil Moisture-Temperature Coupling Increases Population Exposure to Future Heatwaves, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004697 12 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Climate change, extractivist infrastructure and environmental conflicts at the Northern Sea-Polar Silk Road intersection, Hana?ek et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104600

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strategies for promoting climate change transparency and inclusive growth through south-south climate change cooperation, Environment Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-024-05198-w 4 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human culture

Environmental impact of athletes’ diets: greenhouse gas emissions, water footprint, and sustainability awareness, Acar et al., Environmental Science and Pollution Research 10.1007/s11356-026-37459-8

Other

An analysis of energy efficiency of various ships sailing in the European Economic Area waters, Chou et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Open Access pdf 10.1057/s41599-026-08173-0

Conflicts of Interest, Funding Support, and Author Affiliation in Peer-Reviewed Research on the Relationship between Climate Change and Geophysical Characteristics of Hurricanes, Weinkle et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0260.1

Earth's Infrared Background: A Physics-Based Null Hypothesis for the Global-Scale Subannual Variability of Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Shamir & Gerber, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123697

Role of the Atmospheric Circulation in the Observed Warming Over Europe Using a Neural Network, Cariou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121861

The Populationist Climate Futures Industry: NGO SF Capital, Eco-emotions and Speculative Ecofascism, Iossifidis, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2601613

Translating urban climate research into practice: Practitioner evidence from Hong Kong on formats, barriers and adoption, Lee & Ng, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102850

Volcanoes and wildfires contributed to increased stratospheric humidification, [authors did not process], Nature Open Access 10.1038/d41586-026-02011-8

When models outrun politics: Biofuels as a stress test for scenario plausibility, Hedenus, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104840

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Gender diversity and climate disclosure: a tcfd perspective, Environment Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-024-05203-2 9 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

As we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targets, Quagraine et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00246-z

US climate actions must continue, despite setbacks, Widawsky, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00660-3

Vulnerability of marine megafauna to global at-sea anthropogenic threats, VanCompernolle et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70147

We need a global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks, Stott et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00544-6

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability, Nature Ecology & Evolution, 10.1038/s41559-024-02448-y 45 cites.

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Book reviews

Apocalyptic authoritarianism: climate crisis, media, and power, Poberezhskaya, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2629722

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Draft Strategic Energy Assessment 2026-2032, Public Service Commission of Wisconsin

The biennial Strategic Energy Assessment (SEA) provides information to evaluate Wisconsin’s current and future electricity supply. The SEA provides this evaluation in the context of four primary goals maintained by Wisconsin electricity providers and the Commission including adequate electric supply that maintains sufficient total power to meet customers’ total electric demand (i.e. resource adequacy); reliable electric supply that provides all customers access to electricity at all times, avoiding outages whenever possible; affordable electric supply that offers adequate and reliable energy at the lowest feasible cost for customers; and environmentally responsible electric supply that minimizes the negative effects of electric generation on the natural environment.

Cheaper. Cleaner. Unstoppable. Clean technologies that are delivering for the climate, James Haselip and Lakshmi Bhamidipati, United Nations Environment Program

At a time when climate risks are intensifying, this policy briefs highlights a powerful and hopeful shift: many clean solutions are no longer niche—they are becoming the new normal. Across energy, transport, buildings and food systems, “positive tipping points” are emerging. As costs fall, technologies scale, and public support grows, adoption is accelerating in self reinforcing ways. Solar power, electric mobility, and sustainable cooling are proving that climate action can be economically competitive, socially beneficial and globally scalable. This report shows that the transition is not only possible—it is already underway. With the right policies, investments and partnerships, we can amplify these positive tipping points, unlock cascading benefits, and deliver a future that is more resilient, equitable and sustainable.

Battery Geopolitics: Balancing Industrial Power in the Race to Store Energy, Milo McBride, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The United States and Europe will provide the essential playing field for diversification because they have the largest battery markets outside of China. However, much of the current capacity is tied to incumbent nickel-cobalt supply lines, and it is important that the prospective capacity is developed as new battery chemistries, which could prevent technology lock-in and abate mineral supply risks in the long term. Policymakers should wield market access as a pragmatic tool for resilience and broader diversification; for example, partnering with Chinese firms for anode materials where few alternative producers exist while ensuring that other Asian players in battery cells continue to grow and innovate. If the United States and Europe are committed to scaling domestic battery companies and indigenizing midstream materials, this will require coordinated support measures ranging from trade barriers and local-content rules to targeted subsidies that help cover operating costs during scaling as well as a clear agenda to support factory efficiency. Efforts to bring new battery cells or materials to market might benefit from joint ventures with companies capable of delivering gigawatt-hour scale, which start-ups are currently struggling to achieve.

Taming Data Center Turmoil: Hyperscalers Push Electricity Markets to Their Limits, Climate Cabinet Education

Over the past century, states have built and finely tuned a regulatory apparatus to manage the power sector. These frameworks were designed for a world of gradual, predictable load growth. Today, hyperscale data centers are breaking the system. They are upending every assumption those frameworks depend on, faster than regulators can respond. More than 300 bills were introduced across 30 states in the first six weeks of 2026, underscoring the recognition that the existing guidelines are being overwhelmed, as well as the struggle to keep pace with hyperscale demand. A system best equipped to manage tidal flows is facing a tsunami. This unprecedented situation is occurring because hyperscalers are causing multiple conditions to converge, creating challenges no regulatory framework was designed to manage simultaneously including facilities large enough that a single exit can fundamentally alter project financials and who pays for them; 5–10 year contracts for infrastructure built to last 30 years, creating years of uncertainty after contracts expire; dedicated assets with little or no alternative use; hyperscale developer-supplied electricity demand forecasts, shaped by a financial interest in approval and, thus, far from impartial; and pressure to build new natural gas systems, locking in decades of climate pollution.

Taming Data Center Turmoil: The Rise of the Hyperscalers, Climate Cabinet Education

For most of the past century, electricity demand grew predictably. Utilities could plan for gradual increases across homes, offices, and factories with high confidence. Traditional growth was steady, measured in single-digit annual percentages, and closely linked to local economies. Hyperscale energy loads (data centers, cloud facilities), however, are rewriting this rulebook. A single facility can consume as much power as 100,000 homes, and clusters of centers can add multiple gigawatts of concentrated, rapid, and globally mobile demand within just a few years. Unlike traditional industries, these facilities can appear almost overnight, challenging the slow, predictable pace of electricity planning.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (68% versus 16%). By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans are more likely to think global warming is mostly human-caused (59%) than to think it is mostly caused by natural changes in the environment (27%). 66% of Americans say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, including 29% who say they are “very worried.” 59% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 35% who think weather is being affected “a lot.” 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.

One Year Since the One Big Beautiful Bill: An Economic Impact Analysis Of America’s Clean Economy, BW Research Partnership, Economy and Environment

The authors detail the far-reaching economic effects of clean energy investments cancelled by the private sector since the federal government began its attempts to slow or halt the growth of clean energy beginning in January 2025. The author's modeling shows that since January 1, 2025, large-scale clean energy manufacturing and generation projects canceled in the wake of this shift in US energy policy have cost the future US economy 468,000 jobs, including more than 343,000 permanent jobs and 125,000 construction jobs; $55 billion in lost GDP growth annually from cancelled manufacturing plants and other operations, in addition to $91 billion lost from cancelled construction work; $12 billion foregone in annual tax revenue for federal, state, and local governments, in addition to nearly $20 billion in lost tax revenues just from construction activities; and $31 billion in lost annual wages for permanent workers.

National Transmission Needs Study (Draft), Office of Electricity, Department of Energy

The needs study provides a comprehensive assessment of current and future transmission needs within and across geographic regions of the U.S. The definition of electric transmission need used in this study includes the existence of present or expected electric transmission capacity constraints or congestion in a geographic area. Geographic areas where a transmission need exists would benefit from an upgraded, uprated, or new transmission facility—including alternative solutions—to improve the reliability and resilience of the power system; alleviate transmission congestion and unscheduled flows; alleviate power transfer capacity limits between neighboring regions; deliver cost-effective generation to meet demand; and/or meet projected future generation, electricity demand, or reliability requirements. The needs study includes an analysis of transmission system operational data (informed by publicly available information) and a review of more than 120 recently published reports. The purpose of this study is not to prescribe particular solutions to issues faced by the nation’s power sector, but rather to assess need in order for industry and the public to suggest the best possible solutions for addressing them in a timely manner. There is a pressing need for additional transmission infrastructure due to load growth. Increasing interregional transmission is increasingly recognized for its multifold benefits to consumers. Many regional entities are approving their largest transmission portfolios.

Military climate strategies: Are they just greenwash?, Stuart Parkinson, Scientists for Global Responsibility

The author examines the carbon reduction plans for the militaries of 26 nations, mainly from Europe and North America. The findings give much cause for concern. They show that most military emissions within these 26 nations are not covered by any specific targets, most of the targets that do exist are unambitious, and most of the emission reduction achieved to date has relied on civilian action (especially decarbonization of national electricity grids), temporary reductions in military activity, or military base closure programs. Worse, the emission reduction that has occurred now looks like it will be overwhelmed due to massive rises in military spending.

Energy Superabundance: Unlocking Prosperity in the West initiative, Western Governors Association

In a year-long initiative featuring four workshops hosted by Utah Governor Cox, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, and Idaho Governor Brad Little industry experts, thought leaders, and policymakers examined various challenges and opportunities for achieving energy superabundance across the region through expanded and improved energy production, transmission, and storage. The authors highlight key issues explored during the workshops and present federal policy recommendations developed from those discussions to help plan, finance, develop, and deploy energy projects across the West.

Levelized Cost of Energy, Lazard

Renewables remain the lowest cost new-build generation; all generation faces increasing cost pressure. Unprecedented demand reinforces the need for diverse generation and thoughtful acceleration of permitting/approval processes. There is an increasing competitiveness of existing generation. Storage costs have increased reversing recent declines.

A Significant Moment in the Colorado River Water Supply Crisis, Schmidt et al., Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado, Boulder

On Sunday, July 12, the surface of Lake Powell was 3524.32 feet above sea level, and the surface of Lake Mead was at 1042.77 ft.7 These elevations equated to 5,505,869 and 7,169,640 acre feet (af), respectively, of live storage in the two reservoirs. The combined total live storage of these reservoirs was 12,675,509 af. The last time the combined total live storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead was this small was May 23, 1957, during construction of Glen Canyon Dam when the entire amount of 12,668,000 af was stored in Lake Mead. These two reservoirs are the largest in the United States and hold slightly less than 60% of total amount of water presently stored in the Basin. Every day going forward, until runoff from the 2026-2027 winter snowpack begins next spring, a new record low will likely be set. This is a significant moment in the evolving Colorado River water supply crisis.

GST in NDCs. How the first Global Stocktake is reflected in the NDCs, Beuermann et al., German Environment Agency

The authors evaluate the extent to which the mitigation-related outcomes of the first Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement have been integrated into subsequent Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The authors examine whether Parties are explicitly referencing the GST as a guiding framework or are merely aligning with its thematic area, e.g. renewable energy, fossil fuel transition. The findings suggest that the GST has signaled priority areas, yet the extent of the integration of GST outcomes into national planning processes greatly varies.

Rush. Global Scramble for Minerals Wages War on People and Planet, Frédéric Mousseau and Andy Currie, The Oakland Institute

As governments and corporations scramble to secure critical minerals, the authors expose the forces fueling today’s unprecedented mining boom. They dismantle the dominant narrative that massive amounts of minerals are needed for the energy transition, revealing instead a potent convergence of political, military, and corporate interests racing to control the resources that underpin modern warfare and artificial intelligence. To justify a massive scale up of mineral extraction, governments, corporations, and international financial institutions like the World Bank, frame critical minerals as indispensable to the green transition and as a pathway to prosperity for the Global South. However, the authors document that more than 70 percent of critical mineral demand today comes from industries unrelated to the energy transition, including the automotive, aerospace, military, communications, and technology sectors. Rapid growth in artificial intelligence, data centers, surveillance technologies, and military spending is expected to increase this demand massively. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bridgett Ennis

s the prices of home battery systems fall, they’re becoming a key part of the modern electric grid. They can help homeowners store power from rooftop solar panels or the grid for use during outages or periods of high demand. And they can reduce strain on the grid during heat waves when electricity demand soars.

In this interview with Yale Climate Connections, Raghu Belur, the chief products officer for Enphase Energy, explains how home battery systems can lower utility bills and create backup power during grid failures. He also says that batteries, including the batteries in electric vehicles, may one day make it possible for utilities to use power from many small sources to maintain a more reliable grid. 

This interview has been edited for clarity and length. 

Yale Climate Connections: Could you explain what a home battery is, how it works, and the benefits it provides customers? 

Raghu Belur: The beauty of the battery is it can do a few different things. The home – which traditionally has been only a consumer of energy – is actually producing its own energy with solar on the roof. One of the limitations to solar is that it’s an intermittent resource – we don’t have solar at night – so the best way to actually maximize the utilization or the usability of solar is to add a battery. 

The second use case is you can actually sell energy back to the grid [in some places]. When there is a lot of demand on the grid and you have all these stored electrons, those electrons are very valuable for yourself as well as for the grid. So you as a prosumer – a producer and a consumer – can sell that energy to the grid and actually make money. 

The third use case for that battery is, of course, if the grid were to fail. So when the grid goes out, these batteries can create a microgrid and power the home. The whole process is seamless: It senses that the grid is gone, takes over, and runs the home on the energy that it has saved so the homeowner wouldn’t even know that the grid is gone. 

YCC: How do batteries help provide resiliency for homeowners during power outages or extreme weather? 

Belur: We are living in times where 100-year storms are the norm now. We also have to deal with things like forest fires. Usually, if there’s a storm or winter event, it lasts for a finite period of time, and the sun eventually does come out. So if you have solar and a battery, then you can ride through a multiday outage. 

And the deployment of solar and batteries is going to become more and more critical, especially as the demand in the overall infrastructure is going up significantly. The electrical demand on homes is going up substantially – you’re seeing homes getting electrified, with everything from heat pumps, induction ovens, EVs. 

But that’s not all the story. Massive demand on the utility is coming from the hyperscalers, from the AI data centers as well. 

So addressing the demand on the residential side, with deploying more and more batteries, is massively beneficial for everybody because they can help alleviate some of the stress that the grid feels as a result of all that demand that’s coming from the data center side. 

YCC: How common is it to deploy batteries on homes that don’t have solar? 

Learn more: Find out which climate action best fits into your life.

Belur: It’s not that common, but I don’t see a reason why that cannot become a trend. Solar used to be the point of entry for [a home energy] system, but an EV is also a very large battery. So we can not only intelligently charge your EV, but [with a bidirectional EV charger] you can also discharge your EV to support the grid, provide grid resiliency, or you can use the EV to power your home in the event of an outage. So you’ll find that there will be a lot of deployments where people use their car as the battery, and that’s the only thing that they have – and we believe that an EV will be the point of entry into that energy system for a lot of people. 

Read: When the power went out, an electric car kept the AC running

If you look at the way technology evolves over the long run, it decentralizes. If you think about mainframes, 40 or 50 years ago, people used to have mainframe computers – that was the norm. That’s where all the intelligence was, and all the decision-making happened there. Today we have arguably much more intelligence in our laptops and in our phones, and so we have decentralized that intelligence. 

I believe the same thing is going to happen with energy as well. Historically, all the power production or generation of energy has been centralized – you’ve got big hydroelectric plants, nuclear plants, gas-powered plants, coal plants, and large-scale solar, large-scale wind. 

What we are seeing now is this decentralization or distribution of energy, where the home is becoming the unit of intelligence. It’s the one that produces its own energy, stores and consumes [energy] intelligently, and can also optimize not only for the homeowner’s needs but also provide resiliency to the grid by exporting electrons into the grid. 

YCC: We’re seeing rising energy prices. When we talk about consumers, whether they’re leasing or buying these battery systems, what does all of this mean for consumers’ bills? 

Belur: Here’s this opportunity for the homeowner to become a prosumer – produce your own energy, consume your own energy, manage your own energy intelligently – so you can optimize your bill as well as provide resiliency. It’s a way to hedge against future energy rate increases. Depending on the location, for example, you can have a payback period of as low as four to five years. Four to five years, your energy system pays off because what you’re offsetting is a very large utility bill.

Then other places may take seven to eight years, but you’re looking at a 25-year asset. When you’re looking at a 25-year asset, a payback period from anywhere from four to eight years, that’s not too bad because once I’ve paid off my system, because I’ve offset my consumption – and by the way, my rates don’t go up – it’s my own system. 

I think it makes absolute sense that people should deploy their own energy system within their home. Of course, solar is kind of the hero of the show. That’s what this is all about, but you do need solar. You need batteries. You need EV chargers. You need software to manage everything, and you can create a tremendous amount of value and shrink that payback period down even further.

YCC: What needs to happen to scale up this approach to reach those low-income consumers who might not be able to afford to make these investments up front? 

Belur: Investors look for some level of certainty, and this is an asset class that the investment community is starting to get very comfortable with because the default rates are very low. So you’re seeing more and more dollars being invested into deploying more of these systems, because not a lot of people are defaulting on their loans, because what is their alternative? It’s not a luxury. Energy is a necessity. 

The place where things are a little uncertain is all of these government regulations changing. Whatever decision the government makes regarding whether there is going to be tax incentives or no tax incentives, those decisions need to happen quickly so you bring stability into the market. 

Read: Trump just gave a huge gift to China’s economy

In the long run, I believe that incentives should be a catalyst and not a crutch. We know we have the technology capabilities, so let’s get some of these government uncertainties out of the way and let our industry do what it does best: Deliver great economics, great value to the homeowner, and the finance industry will love that because it’s a strong asset class. It’s got low default rates, and we know we’ll always need energy.

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Do electric vehicles stop working in extreme heat?

Extreme heat can temporarily reduce range, but recent research does not show that EVs are unable to operate in hot weather.

Much of the decrease comes from energy diverted to cool the vehicle, not because EV batteries or motors stop functioning. Modern EVs use thermal management systems to keep components within safe operating temperatures.

U.S. Department of Energy testing in 2024 found EV range fell on average about 14% at an ambient temperature of 95°F (35°C) compared with mild weather. However, the same proportional decrease was measured for gasoline vehicles under comparable conditions. 

AAA testing of popular EV models in 2026 found an average range decrease of 8.5% at 95°F. Meanwhile, a 2025 study of 345,000 real-world EV trips found a 16% reduction at temperatures up to 122°F (50°C).

Extreme heat can reduce efficiency, but it does not make EVs unable to function.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

U.S. Department of Energy Impact of Cold Ambient Temperature and Extreme Conditions on Electric Vehicles

AAA TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLE EFFICIENCY

Applied Energy Extreme heat effects on electric vehicle energy consumption and driving range

Recurrent How Hot Summer Weather Affects EV Range

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

[Based on Evan's suggestion in the comments, we updated the title to eliminate the double negative. July 15, 2026]

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

I have a commentary in Carbon Brief today, written with my friend, Prof. Chris Callahan. It focuses on the recent heatwave in France.

One point we wanted to make, but that was downplayed after the elves at Carbon Brief edited the piece, is that this event should make us rethink the victory lap people took after RCP8.5 was judged to be implausible.

The focus on arguments about emissions scenarios that only affect the climate late in this century takes the spotlight off the fact that the impacts of climate change are already here and they’re significant, as this French heatwave shows.

The reduction in future emissions is good news, but it may be cancelled by the fact that models seem to be underestimating the extreme heat that Europe is experiencing.

Here is a reprint of our Carbon Brief piece:

In June 2026, a record-breaking heatwave swept across Europe, with France among the first and hardest hit countries.

In a new analysis, we estimate that the extreme conditions caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths in France.

We also show how France’s extreme temperatures in June exceeded projections from climate models.

Our findings illustrate the human toll of extreme weather as the world warms.

We also highlight the challenges in projecting the magnitude of future heatwaves and their impacts on people.

Outpacing projections

For most of this century, Europe has seen summer heat extremes that outpace projections from climate models.

Several different factors likely explain this trend, including reductions in planet-cooling aerosols as nations have cleaned up their air pollution, as well as changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which models struggle to represent.

In June 2026, daily high temperatures averaged across France reached 36.9°C, shattering the previous June record set in 2022 by 2.4°C1.

The rise in observed temperatures in France has outpaced projections made by climate models, with June maximum temperatures more in line with what was expected for the 2070s.

This is illustrated in the figure below, which shows how France’s average maximum daily high temperature for June recorded in 2026 (black line) compares to climate model projections (blue and orange lines).

Comparison of observed (ERA5, black) and modelled (blue and orange) temperatures across France from 2000 to 2080. Plot shows the maximum daily high temperature recorded in June for each year, after averaging temperatures across France. The model ensembles are bias-corrected CMIP6 model ensembles from the NEX-GDDP (blue) and CIL-GDPCIR (orange) projects. The dashed blue and orange lines are the ensemble averages. Credit: Prof Andrew Dessler. Counting the death toll of climate change

The downstream impacts of these extreme temperatures are lethal.

Scientists are able to estimate the death toll of high temperatures in many locations, depending on the availability of mortality and climate data.

There are several ways to do this.

One option is to examine death certificates to see which deaths have been directly recorded by physicians as related to heat. However, there is strong evidence that this method significantly undercounts heat-related deaths, as most death certificates do not consider environmental factors such as heat when diagnosing the cause of death.

Alternatively, it is possible to calculate the rate of total (“all-cause”) mortality in a given time period relative to previous time periods – for example, by comparing the total number of deaths in June 2026 compared to the average of previous Junes. This “excess deaths” figure can be used as an estimate of the deaths from a heat wave.

Using this approach, Public Health France attributed around 2,000 deaths in France to the extreme heat in the week of 22-28 June.

Finally, scientists can use long-term data on overall mortality and correlate changes in mortality with changes in temperature to understand the statistical relationship between the two.

Research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2025 that used this third approach found that mortality rates in France increase rapidly in cold or hot conditions as daily maximum temperatures depart further from approximately 20C.

This pattern of a U-shaped response of mortality to temperature — shown in the figure below — is very consistent across time periods and regions around the world.

  Relationship between daily high temperature and all-cause mortality rates in France, estimated using data over 2004-19. Credit: Dr Christopher Callahan, based on data and methods in Callahan et al. (2025)

To calculate the death toll of the June 2026 heatwave in France, we compared observed temperatures over 12-29 June to their baseline average over 1980-2025.

The difference between these two temperatures helps us understand how many more people died than they would have in the absence of such extreme conditions.

Over 12-29 June, we found that France has experienced around 2,700 heat-related deaths above the average baseline. Day-to-day heat-related mortality rates rose from less than 100 to almost 300 on the hottest days of 24 and 25 June.

This is shown in the graph below, which illustrates the cumulative total heat-related deaths seen in France over the two-and-a-half week period. The inset shows how heat-related deaths fluctuated on a day-to-day basis during this time.

Estimated heat-related mortality over 12-29 June, based on a U-shaped response of mortality to temperature. The main plot shows cumulative total deaths and the inset shows daily deaths. Credit: Dr Christopher Callahan, based on data and methods in Callahan et al. (2025)

Recent analysis by World Weather Attribution has already shown that human-caused climate change increased the frequency and intensity of the June heat wave across Europe.

Meanwhile, previousresearch has shown there is substantial evidence that heat-related mortality in Europe has already been elevated by greenhouse gas emissions.

As a result, we can be confident that at least some of the more than 2,700 deaths already seen in France are directly due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Calculating climate risk

In April, the UN-led body responsible for coordinating the work of climate modelling centres — the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP) — unveiled a set of seven new emissions scenarios.

These are designed to replace the previous scenarios that have been used by scientists to understand how the climate might change in the future. They will feed into the upcoming seven assessment report (AR7) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The range of future emissions in the new CMIP scenarios is smaller, with scenarios of very high or very low emissions no longer on the table.

The retirement of the very-high emissions scenario — known as “RCP8.5” — led to certain commentators in the media and in politics, including US president Donald Trump, arguing that the risks of climate change had been “overstated”2.

Our analysis of June’s heat-related deaths in France suggests that, even if the most severe emissions pathways are no longer needed, climate impacts are taking a heavy toll on society.

Moreover, the temperatures seen in France show that climate models continue to underpredict the magnitude of heatwaves for a particular level of global warming.

This is because greenhouse gas emissions are only a first step in estimating the impacts of climate change.

The second step is converting emissions to changes in the climate at both the global and local levels — or hazards. This includes heatwaves, flash floods and droughts.

The third step is to determine how changes in the hazards will affect local populations. This can be determined by calculating people’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards.

Substantial uncertainty persists at every stage of this sequence.

For example, scientists do not know exactly how the global climate will react to ever-rising greenhouse gas emissions — nor the extent to which global temperature increases will drive local climate hazards. We also do not know how climate change at a local level impacts human health outcomes.

Managing the future of heat risk

Almost all heat-related deaths are preventable.

Adaptation options, such as air conditioning, heat action plans and social support for isolated people, will be crucial as the climate moves away from the typical conditions that people are used to.

Our previous research showed that France made a lot of progress reducing heat-related mortality after the deadly 2003 summer heatwave by taking many of these actions.

Adaptation can reduce deaths, but it cannot eliminate the risk created by continued warming.

Without a move away from fossil fuels, future heatwaves will keep testing the limits of public health systems and more people will die.

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other stuff

My old friend3 Steve Wilson has a new Substack. It’s not about climate, it’s about U.S. drug policy. He’s writing a book and is posting chapters and they’re pretty good. Check it out.

I’d be grateful if you could hit the like button ?? below! It helps more people discover these ideas and lets me know what’s connecting with readers.

1 For more on the impacts and coverage of Europe’s June heatwave, see Carbon Brief’s explainer.

2 For more on false and misleading claims around the new emissions scenarios, see Carbon Brief’s factcheck.

3 I mean that I’ve been friends with him for a long time not that he’s old.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 5, 2026 thru Sat, July 11, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• Ocean surface temperatures hit record high as world enters ‘uncharted territory,’ scientists warn Temperatures on the ocean surface hit a record high in June, European scientists warned Wednesday, fueling fears of more dangerous heat waves this summer and fanning concerns over the escalating global climate crisis.y NBC News, Chantal Da Silva, Jul 1, 2026.
• Heat, Drought, & Fires Disrupt USA`s 250th Anniversary - But We Ain`t Seen Nothing Yet A country that is by and large ignoring global heating is having celebrations of its 250-year anniversary/birthday canceled because of global heating. CleanTechnica, Zachary Shahan, Jul 04, 2026.
• Rising seas make once-rare coastal floods 12 times more likely Phys.org, Alexa St. John, Jul 04, 2026.
• Where do heat waves come from? Just like the adage “a rising tide lifts all boats,” a warming climate raises the baseline temperature from which heatwaves start. '' The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jul 04, 2026.
• Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk Professor Andrew Dessler points out that celebration over the recently retired RCP 8.5 emissions scenario is premature and irrelevant, given how Europe's scorching summer illustrates how ''low end'' warming we already live with is profoundly destructive. The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jul 07, 2026.
• June heatwave in UK led to `mass sleep deprivation`, poll suggests Record temperatures fuelled by climate crisis left 86% of homes ‘too hot’ and many people feeling unwell The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Jul 07, 2026.
• The Arctic Ocean may have passed a crucial tipping point that could harm food webs and worsen climate change Sea ice loss seems to have triggered a decline in the nutrient nitrate, affecting the tiny organisms that form the foundations of marine food chains and absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study. Smithsonian Magazine, Sara Hashemi, Jul 09, 2026.
• The oceans are full of heat, and it`s coming ashore The ocean absorbs 90 percent of the excess heat from global warming. It doesn't all stay there. Grist, Sachi Kitajima Mulkey, Jul 10, 2026.
• The Irreversible Global Impacts of Earth`s Lost Frozen Regions In a U.N. side event organized by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, researchers and experts discussed how exceeding 1.5°C will bring irreversible damage from the loss of global snow and ice regions. State of the Planet, Amy Indieke, Jul 10, 2026.
• What happened to Australia`s snow season? A climate expert explains The Conversation, Andrew B. Watkins, Jul 10, 2026.
• Pacific gray whales facing `catastrophic` die-off as climate crisis hits food supply Trump administration urged to relist a species in ‘very, very serious trouble’ under Endangered Species Act The Guardian, Tom Perkins, Jul 10, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)

• UK `only` contributes 1% global emissions - but alongside many other countries, that all adds up Percentages no matter how large or small always total as 100%. English - The Conversation, Chloe Brimicombe, Ella Gilbert, Jul 06, 2026.
• `Can you help us?`: US oil execs turn to Trump to topple Europe's climate rules The U.S. oil and gas industry has succeeded in exporting massive amounts of natural gas to Europe. Now, with the help of White House officials, it looks like it might also succeed in exporting the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda. Politico, Zack Colman, Ben Munster and Sara Schonhardt, Jul 08, 2026.
• Plans for more pipelines to export Canadian oil - and emissions - as planet keeps getting hotter PM Carney says choices being made now for 'Canada's energy future' will certainly increase emissions CBC Canada News, Nick Logan, Jul 09, 2026.
• Trump Administration Taps Climate Science Critic to Oversee Flagship Report Matthew M. Wielicki has criticized the scientific consensus on global warming as alarmist. Now he’ll oversee a major federal report on the topic. New York Times, Maxine Joselow and Brad Plumer, July 10, 2026.
• The Business Case for Climate Action Is Stronger Than It Looks TIME, Justin Worland, Jul 11, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (4 articles)

• Trump victorious in legal battle to erase climate change and slavery signs from national parks Donald Trump has been given the green light to continue erasing the truth about climate change from national parks across the US, following a drawn-out legal battle. Euro News, EHN Curators, Jul 04, 2026.
• Fixing Climate Communications Messages that employed direct consequence framing, such as linking climate change to personal financial harm or health impacts, outperformed indirect frames, such as those focused on jobs and innovation, by nearly 2 to 1. CleanTechnica, Keith Zakheim, Jul 07, 2026.
• The plan to make climate science harder to erase As climate information disappears from federal websites, scientists are rebuilding it elsewhere. Grist, Kate Yoder, Jul 07, 2026.
• MPs call on UK government to host televised emergency briefing on climate crisis As UK swelters in another heatwave, 50-minute Chris Packham film outlines threats to security, economy and health The Guardian, Pippa Neill, Jul 10, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• Why California’s carbon manure math doesn’t add up A growing body of research suggests that California's manure-to-methane program is a case study in the shortcomings of our preferred approaches to climate action. MIT Technology Review, James Temple, Jul 2, 2026.
• Moving forests to save them: Here are the risks and rewards of assisted tree migration The Conversation, Anne Ola, Alison Munson, Mariétou Diouf, Jul 05, 2026.
• Confronting Salty Problems in the Coastal Plain An interdisciplinary network of scientists and stakeholders is working to understand how saltwater intrusion and sea level rise are affecting rural communities and to help address the consequences. Eos, Kiera O’Donnell, Emily S. Bernhardt, Aeran Coughlin, Ken W. Krauss and Xi Yang, Jul 06, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (2 articles)

• Historical records reveal how Canada`s weather has changed over the centuries The Conversation, Victoria Slonosky, Jul 05, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2028 Skeptical Science's weekly climate research survey, covering hundreds of journals and myriad government and NGO reports, with a focus on easy readability access for ordinary members of the public. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jul 09, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 articles)

• Longtime Exxon CEO Lee Raymond’s legacy of climate denial and misinformation lives on – a psychologist offers ways to counter it The Conversation, Joe Árvai, June 22, 2026.
• 2026’s El Niño may bring storms, heatwaves – and misinformation Science Feedback, Edited by Rahul Rao, July 8, 2026.

Miscellaneous (1 article)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27 A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 28, 2026 thru Sat, July 4, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jul 05, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios, Jin et al., Nature Communications

Variations in the atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle across the Northern Hemisphere have historically been dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, making ground-based observations a reliable proxy for terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, whether this dominance will persist in the future remains uncertain. Here we combine atmospheric transport modeling with factorial simulations to assess and attribute future changes in the CO2 seasonal cycle through 2100. We show that the dominant drivers of these changes shift fundamentally across scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), strengthening land sinks dominate and amplify CO2 seasonal variability, preserving ground-based observations as a reliable terrestrial proxy. In contrast, under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), CO2 seasonal amplitude declines widely, driven primarily by reduced fossil fuel emissions and their dampened seasonality. Consequently, established ground-based CO2 observations may no longer reliably track terrestrial carbon dynamics under mitigation pathways, underscoring the need for new approaches for monitoring and climate policy verification.

Dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling for efficient year-round energy savings, Zhou et al., Science Advances

Electricity-free radiative cooling (RC) techniques are gaining ever-increasing attention to decrease energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the cooling power of RC in summer is severely limited by atmospheric window constraints and its negative effect in winter offsets annual energy savings in four-season regions. This study introduces a dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling (DERC) device to maximize the cooling power in hot summer and achieve year-round dynamic thermal management. Adaptive to changes in environmental temperature, the DERC device demonstrates dynamic regulation of water evaporation, along with notable modulation of solar and thermal radiation (ΔAsol = 87%; ΔεBroadband = 63%). Theoretical and real-time experiments demonstrate that the DERC device is more energy-efficient than cutting-edge dynamic radiative cooling (DRC) techniques. The energy-saving simulations indicate that the DERC device yields over 40% primary energy savings and CO2 emission reduction compared to the DRC device. This DERC device represents a conceptual advancement, paving the way for global energy savings and emission reductions.

Heating up the headlines: How tabloid framing reshaped Germany's Buildings Energy Act, Loschke et al., Energy Research & Social Science

Media has become a decisive force in shaping climate and energy policy, influencing not only which issues gain attention but also how they are framed and contested. This paper examines how BILD, Germany's largest tabloid, transformed the 2023 reform of the Buildings Energy Act (GEG) into one of the most polarizing political controversies in recent German history. Analyzing a corpus of 333 BILD articles from January 2023 to March 2024, we identify three dominant rhetorical strategies – personalisation, economic alarmism, and ideological framing – epitomised by the term “Heizungshammer”, which appeared over 250 times in BILD alone and spread to more than 1100 articles across the broader press. These narratives produced concrete policy outcomes: the progressive dilution and eventual abandonment of the 65% renewable energy obligation, the cancellation of planned building efficiency standards, and a reversal of Germany's position in EU negotiations on the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. The case demonstrates that tabloid framing can migrate directly into legislative outcomes, with measurable consequences for climate governance ambition, highlighting the fragility of climate legislation in an age of digital populism.

Shades of Swedish climate scepticism: an exploration of explanatory factors on doubts about climate change, Mendy & Lindvall, Environmental Sociology 

This study examines the drivers of climate scepticism in Sweden, distinguishing between epistemic scepticism – doubts about the scientific evidence of climate change – and response scepticism, concerning doubts about the need or effectiveness of climate mitigation. Using a large-scale survey (n = 5280), we analyse how variants of political ideology – regarding economic and material aspects, and cultural values captured on the GAL-TAN scale – and trust shape these forms of scepticism. While relatively few respondents expressed epistemic scepticism, response scepticism was more prevalent. Low trust in scientists is the strongest determinant of epistemic scepticism, alongside TAN-oriented ideology. TAN orientation associates more strongly with response scepticism than epistemic scepticism, suggesting that individuals who accept climate science may still oppose mitigation policies, possibly due to a proclivity of social dominance orientation or political cues. A novel result is that attributional uncertainty, beliefs that climate is changing equally due to human and natural causes, is found to strongly associate with response scepticism, suggesting that more effective climate communication could alleviate such scepticism. The paper underscores the need to disentangle social mechanisms behind different sceptical climate beliefs and to refine the concept of response scepticism, as it may reflect distinct psychological and political dynamics.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The Power Behind AI. Wave of Dirty Gas Power Plants Planned for Data Centers, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project:

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over. The plants would also release nearly 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution, which would have the climate-warming effect of 140 million cars and trucks driving for a year or the emissions from the entire nation of Australia. Beyond greenhouse gases, this wave of power plants for data centers could also release 159,142 tons of health-harming air pollutants, including 44,281 tons of nitrogen oxides that contribute to smog and lung damage and 32,684 tons of fine particulate matter, which can trigger heart and asthma attacks. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. This pollution is a small fraction of the likely environmental effect of the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry and affiliated data centers. These 74 planned gas plants, including 71 new power plants and three plant expansions, would be connected directly to data centers — so-called “behind-the-meter” power plants. These plants are designed to provide their electricity primarily to data centers and not to compete with local households and businesses on regional power grids. More power plants are being planned across the U.S. that will indirectly serve the growing data center industry along with other consumers on the grid, which will likely drive up electricity prices for nearby residents.

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid, Patrick Hoffmann and Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz Research

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world's fastest-growing sources of electricity demand. Installed capacity is expected to double by 2030, with AI workloads already accounting for 15–20% of data-center electricity use and potentially approaching 40% by the end of the decade. Yet the sector's environmental footprint remains underestimated as most analyses focus only on operational electricity use. The authors take a broader systems view across 26 countries (+93% of global capacity), adding lifecycle emissions, water use and AI's growing resource demand. Identical workloads can generate up to 24 ti mes more emissions depending on the emission intensity of the grid, making location as decisive as demand growth. Fossil-dependent grids in Indonesia, India and Malaysia exceed 600 gCO2/kWh, compared with under 30 gCO2/kWh in Norway and Sweden. The US and China, which host the largest data-center clusters, sit in between at 384 gCO2/kWh and 526 gCO2/kWh, respectively, giving Europe's cleaner power mix a structural advantage for low-carbon AI growth. These disparities are amplified by transmission and distribution losses of 10–15% in some markets, while less reliable grids raise electricity needs and dependence on backup generation. 125 articles in 56 journals by 1121 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Link between African Surface Temperature and the Eastward Shift of Precipitation over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Region, Hagos et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0192.1

Antarctic Sea-Ice Loss Enhances East Asian Summer Precipitation Through Tropical Ocean Warming, Zhu et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008147

Changing thunderstorms environments in Saudi Arabia: Frequency, variability and drivers of change, Rafei et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109186

Glacier thinning causes warmer and drier regional climate at the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in western Norway, Haualand et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1033-2026

Increases in Compound Drought and Hot Event in the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau and Its Link to Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Kong et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70502

Increases in Southeast Pacific Low-Cloudiness During ENSO Warm Phases, Manapat et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122913

Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires humidify the stratosphere, Peng et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10731-0

Reduced Wind Power on Oceanic Near-Inertial Internal Waves in a Warming Climate, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121340

The past evolution of marine heatwaves and their drivers in the southern North Sea, Schulzki et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-2027-2026

Ultra flash cold events under global warming, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75094-6

Weak 21st-Century AMOC Response to Greenland Meltwater in a Strongly Eddying Ocean Model, Mehling & Dijkstra, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122545

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Bering Sea Ice Loss on North American Temperature, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109447 11 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Factors Behind Change in Extremes: Change in Precipitation Is Dominated by Its Variability Whereas Change in Temperature by Its Mean, Dash & Maity, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045639

Increasing probability of humid-heat extremes outpaces that of dry-heat extremes in global land monsoon regions under anthropogenic warming, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.024

Increasing spatially co-occurring droughts or pluvials in global major rivers during 1950-2014, Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.021

Streamflow composition in U.S. rivers is shifting toward recent precipitation, Chen & Husic, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03788-2

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Arctic Climate Types and Its Attribution, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0207.1

Toward more frequent winter rain-on-snow events in the Pyrenees, Bonsoms, Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109184

Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia, Xu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential, AMBIO, 10.1007/s13280-024-02046-z 15 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Assessing the Ability of Tree-Ring-Derived Aridity Records to Detect Compound Drought and Heatwave Events, Taylor et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0472.1

ClimateBenchPress (v1.0): a benchmark for lossy compression of climate data, Reichelt et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-5933-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The Hawai‘i Climate Data Portal (HCDP), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0188.1 20 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Atmospheric blocking representation in storm-resolving climate models under historical and future forcing, Dolores-Tesillos et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1089-2026

Distinct Changes in Tropical Cyclone Seasons Between the Western North Pacific and North Atlantic Under High-Level Carbon Dioxide Climate Simulations, Wu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046669

Evaluation and Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Conterminous United States in High-Resolution Global and Regional Simulations, Fu & Prein, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122237

Non-Uniform Reduction of the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in Response to the AMOC Weakening Under External Freshwater Forcing, Joshi & Zhang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123615

Projected Mid- and Late-Century Changes in Severe Convective Storms Across the United States From Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations, Roufa et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70475

Projection the Risk of Winter Extreme Cold Spells in China Based on Statistical Modelling Under Global Warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C, Zhu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70503

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9 36 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Barriers to incorporating dichotomy-based impervious surface datasets into high-resolution urban climate studies, Yu et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103008

Decade-Long Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations for Arabian Peninsula Winter Precipitation: Climatology and Extremes, Attada et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0123.1

Intrinsic Haline Variability as a Source of Uncertainty in Ocean Simulations Without Salinity Restoring, Berthet et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024169

Performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the impact of north tropical Atlantic SST variability on the ITCZ, Lu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1867838

Removing Implausible Precipitation Extremes from CMIP6 Climate Projections Using a GEV-Based Framework, maddahi et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0099.1

Southern Ocean Barrier Layer Assessment in CMIP6 Models with Argo: Historical Bias and Possible Reasons, Jiang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0417.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x 23 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A global meta-analysis of snowpack changes on soil carbon and nitrogen cycling and greenhouse gas fluxes, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105598

Artificial Flooding Leads to Thicker and Brighter Arctic Sea Ice, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007894

Increasing sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea during recent decades modulated by high-frequency Pacific oscillations, Ejaz et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105604

Lengthening ablation seasons are associated with declining minimum albedo of global glaciers, Xiao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.025

Localized positive snow water equivalent anomalies in the Hindu Kush Himalaya under 1.5–5.0 °C warming levels, Zuo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.019

Quantification of Heat and Salt Budgets in the Western Ross Ice Shelf Cavity and Polynya System, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121363

Regional glacier mass changes and meltwater evolution in the Tianshan Mountains since 2000, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105587

Sea Ice Latent Heat Becomes More Active in the Arctic Sea Ice Energy Budget, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122371

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

Temporal and spatial variations in freezing-thawing indices and their impact on permafrost in the Himalayan region, China, from 1960 to 2020, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.020

Uncertainty of the satellite-retrieved sea-ice area record and its trend, Wernecke et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-3783-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Altimetry-based ice-marginal lake water level changes in Greenland, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01522-4 13 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Evaluating and mitigating ecosystem impacts under future extreme sea-level events: The case of Hong Kong, Cao et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103027

Relative contributions of waves and altimetric sea levels to global coastal sea level changes over 1993–2025, Peng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.023

Sub-basin sea level budget analysis in the North Indian Ocean (2003–2024), Pillai et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-60856-5

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

North Pacific meltwater weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and preconditions Heinrich Stadial 1, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75199-y

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Basin-scale grassland greenness and production capacity under extreme temperature and hydrothermal influences in Aral Sea basin during 21st century, Kayiranga et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105617

Critical slowing down of semiarid vegetation resilience is amplified by intensifying heatwaves, Fu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75130-5

Earlier spring and later autumn: Climate warming reshapes pollen seasons in Beijing, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.003

Higher temperatures and low precipitation strongly decrease conifer recruitment in the Rocky Mountains even in heat-adapted species and populations, Bither & Martin, Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70394

Individual Trees Respond to 40 Years of Climate Change Through Leaf Functional Trait Acclimation, Fortier et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70978

Intraspecific trait variation responds consistently to global change drivers and mediates herbivory across unrelated plant species, Zurbuchen & Halliday, Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70389

Multidecadal shifts in hooded seal dive behaviour in a changing ocean, Mendez-Bye et al., Arctic Science Open Access 10.1139/as-2025-0108

Ocean acidification alters phytoplankton diversity and community structure in the coastal water of the East China Sea, Rao et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4515-2026

Positive feedback of forest cover in maintaining hydrological equilibrium under recent climate change projections and land use change scenarios, Kumar et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106880

Regeneration failure, fire, topography, and climate interact to drive temperate wet forest landscapes into fire traps, Perry, University of Auckland Data Repository Open Access 10.17608/k6.auckland.32320029

Stomatal Decoupling From Photosynthesis Under High Temperatures Is Consistent With Stomatal Optimisation, Jones et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70972

Unstable climate drove divergent changes in tree richness and evenness on the Tibetan Plateau, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105615

When Tides Run Dry: Exploring an Overlooked Coastal Disturbance and Its Climate Connections, Gauff et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70976

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 31 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration, Heinrich et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz1923

A multi-model approach to constrain the atmospheric hydrogen budget, Krishnan et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026

Declines in organic matter persistence with increased soil carbon, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75185-4

Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios, Jin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75003-x

In-depth characterisation of organic matter thermal lability and composition from Arctic Permafrost thaw slumps, Bolandini et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4447-2026

Iron as a driver of organic carbon fate in permafrost regions, Opfergelt et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02015-z

Limited energy for microorganisms constrains carbon accrual in soil, Wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02035-9

Nonlinear microbial thresholds drive non-additive soil greenhouse gas responses to compound climate extremes, Lv et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111319

Quantifying the impact of anthropocene river regulation on global organic carbon burial: Mechanisms of accelerated sequestration in karst reservoirs, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105597

Responses of Soil Carbon Release to Freeze–Thaw Cycles Mediated by Carbon Availability at Regional and Global Scales, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70991

Soil Moisture Controls on Permafrost Carbon Cycle Under Greenhouse Warming and Zero Emission Pathways, Mun et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008209

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 750f the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adk5430 60 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

3D geological modelling for CO2 storage assessment in the Abu Roash-A reservoir, Beni Suef field, Western Desert, Egypt, Arafat et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1877557

A review of carbon dioxide removal through concrete carbonation: key parameters and life cycle assessment, Knight et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ae73b3

Decarbonization

Decarbonization from the ground up: what Local Industrial Decarbonization Plans reveal about place-based approaches to decarbonizing industry in the UK, Rattle & Taylor, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.32885157.v1

Dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling for efficient year-round energy savings, Zhou et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed6069

Future scenarios for the benefit of battery storage in the German day-ahead electricity market, Gottfried & Müller, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115461

Projecting and Constraining Solar Energy Resources Along the Silk Road Economic Belt under Climate Change, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.028

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Towards carbon-neutral and clean propulsion in heavy-duty transportation with hydroformylated Fischer–Tropsch fuels, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01581-z 42 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Artificial Flooding Leads to Thicker and Brighter Arctic Sea Ice, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007894

Marine cloud brightening of cumulus clouds: from the sprayer to the cloud, Kainz et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9443-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024 18 cites.

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Aerosols

Global Ocean data set of marine aerosol properties, Quinn et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-4317-2026

Impacts of Aerosol Scavenging and Processing on the Transition of a Stratocumulus Cloud System to Open Cells: A Comparison of Lagrangian and Bin Microphysics Schemes in LES, Chandrakar & Morrison, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-25-0226.1

Record-Breaking Easterly Dust Transport From North Africa to the Arctic: An Observational Study, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123383

Temperature and radiative responses to anthropogenic aerosols over the Mediterranean Basin based on CMIP6 Earth system models, Kalisoras et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-9413-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Co-Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109296 18 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A hope-based framework for implementing climate risk education policy in South African secondary schools, Matimolane & Mathivha, Discover Education Open Access 10.1007/s44217-026-01848-5

Heating up the headlines: How tabloid framing reshaped Germany's Buildings Energy Act, Loschke et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104832

Institutional quality shapes who citizens hold responsible for climate change mitigation, Klebl et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103190

Moral perspective-taking can reduce polarization around climate policy in the United States, Hurst & Hurst, PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag225

People systematically under- and overestimate public engagement in climate action, Tiede et al., Open MIND pmh:10.17605/osf.io/kcq37

Shades of Swedish climate scepticism: an exploration of explanatory factors on doubts about climate change, Mendy & Lindvall, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2697748

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.908 25 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A multivariate framework for assessing compound agroclimatic extremes across Europe, Gohari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03576-y

Agricultural intensification and greenhouse gas emissions in Saudi Arabia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models, Hassan et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1830288

Agrivoltaics: a promising renewable energy model still distant from a collaborative agroecology, Scotti & Osti, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2697744

Breeding drought-tolerant crops for sustainable agriculture, Raza et al., Agriculture & Food Security Open Access pdf 10.1186/s40066-025-00587-4

Fishing and warming reshape size spectra of commercial species in the Mediterranean Sea, Gjoni et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-60738-w

Prioritizing Inclusive Practices for Rural Women Smallholder Farmers Participation in Climate Change Adaptation and Ecological Education in Sub-Saharan Africa, Lokonon et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70053

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49999-z 88 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in the spatial connection and synchronization of extreme rainfall events in recent decades over the Ganga and Yamuna River Basins of India, Pandey et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109170

Impact, drivers and pathways of two Arctic atmospheric rivers in April 2020, Podgurski et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026

Increasing spatially co-occurring droughts or pluvials in global major rivers during 1950-2014, Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.021

Increasing urban flash flood risk attributable to both climate and development, Cotterill et al., Explore Bristol Research Open Access pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/0260fbc2-2c41-4b32-a6f9-caa8dedffe1f

Streamflow composition in U.S. rivers is shifting toward recent precipitation, Chen & Husic, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03788-2

Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia, Xu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Response of streamflow and sediment variability to cascade dam development and climate change in the Sai Gon Dong Nai River basin, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07319-7 101 cites.

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Climate change economics

An assessment of climate vulnerabilities in selected emerging economies with validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Kumari et al., Environment Systems & Decisions 10.1007/s10669-026-10114-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Driving towards a just transition? The case of the European car industry, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103649 17 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Ecological synergy thresholds: Mechanisms and governance implications for enhancing city-level ecosystem carbon sink in China, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105595

Repoliticising users in energy transitions: A critique of dominant ideas and their effect in policy and practice, Ahlborg et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104814

Risk in translation: Climate risk, social vulnerability, and clean energy support across the United States, Tsykalova et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104827

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Supply-side climate policy: A new frontier in climate governance, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.909 22 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A multi-level framework for climate adaptation of critical infrastructure: flood risk in railway networks, Gonzalez et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae7fb5

Beyond climatic risk: envisioning, legitimizing and materializing imaginaries of climate change adaptation in Barbados, Córdova, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.32927386

Effect of financial inclusion and women empowerment on climate resilience: Evidence from sub-Saharan African households, Ali et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100848

Engineering against the climate crisis: assessing the awareness and engagement of South African engineering professionals in climate mitigation and adaptation, Jokazi & Lefalatsa, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1829348

Household perceptions and behaviour shape climate insurance adoption under climate risk, Kamis et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100844

Occupational productivity under extreme heat: Climate impacts and adaptive strategies, Li et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100834

Planning climate destination cities: migrant narratives from Mongla, Bangladesh, Hasan et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2692563

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Living in Mediterranean cities in the context of climate change: A review, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8546 36 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Assessment of urban quality of life under climate change – A framework for Europe, Seku?a et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102988

High-Resolution Modeling of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Reveals Substantial Heat Risks Across Crops and Work Shifts Among Agricultural Workers in Southern California, Parajuli et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001604

Projecting community-specific burden of emergency department visits and hospitalizations associated with heat exposure in Victoria, Australia, Xing et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103023

Other

Climate unemployment, Kono, Political Studies 10.1177/0032321719836066

Climatic Drivers of the Area Burned by Winter Wildfires in Northern Italy, Baronetti et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70496

Influence of historical urban expansion on the regional climate: A case study in the Paris region with CNRM-AROME, Corneille et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103013

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Ocean iron cycle feedbacks decouple atmospheric CO2 from meridional overturning circulation changes, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49274-1 4 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Responsible carbon accounting, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02707-9

Rethinking urban forests as essential infrastructure for resilience, equity, and biodiversity in the current climate emergency, Esperón-Rodríguez et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000953

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Higher-resolution projections needed for small island climates, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02028-9 10 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Uneconomic Coal Operations in PJM: Market Distortions, Cost Impacts, and Policy Considerations, Roumpani et al., The Citizens Utility Board of Ohio

Uneconomic coal operations are not isolated incidents, but occur by a combination of permissive market rules, utility incentives, regulatory decisions, and policy interventions. In combination, these weaken price signals and allow aging, high-cost coal units to remain online even when they are no longer competitive. The authors examine mechanisms that allow or drive uneconomic coal operations including self-scheduling, in which generators operate regardless of market prices, often recovering losses through state-approved power cost recovery mechanisms.; uplift payments, which compensate generators under specified conditions for operating or committing when market revenues are insufficient; Reliability Must-Run (RMR) agreements, which keep uneconomic units online after retirement announcements due to localized reliability concerns; and policy interventions, including recent federal actions, that override or blunt market signals.

The Power Behind AI, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants, which could release as much climate-warming pollution as the nation of Australia each year, are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly-growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over – along with 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution.

Greenpeace Report on Wildfires in Portugal, Viegas et al., Greenpeace

The wildfire risk in Portugal has been changing over the past decades due to the positive or negative effects of various factors, some related to natural or physical conditions and others to socioeconomic, political, and organizational activities. Using statistical data on national fire occurrence and extent, which have been available since 1943, and on climatic factors, vegetation cover and properties, population evolution, and administrative changes in the wildfire risk management system, the authors provide an overview of wildfires in Portugal and their evolution over the past decades. The long-term data are used to provide an overall perspective on some of the major factors present over these eight decades.

Carbon Markets, Unseen Workers: Labor Rights and Governance Gaps in Africa, Otieno et al., Solidarity Center

The authors address a critical gap by analyzing carbon markets through a labor and political economy lens. Grounded in experiences from Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Nigeria, the authors examine how both compliance and voluntary carbon market mechanisms shape employment, labor conditions, and worker participation. The authors illuminate the role of workers across carbon value chains, assess alignment with the International Labor Organization's core conventions and decent work principles, identify governance and accountability gaps, and explore pathways for worker and trade union engagement. The authors provide a framework for workers and their organizations to develop their own engagement and advocacy strategies tailored to their specific priorities.

Hawai'i’s Electricity Future: Three Findings on Solar Reform, Enhanced Geothermal, and the JERA LNG Proposal, Ethan Hartley and Michael Roberts, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization

The authors ask what Hawaiian Electric and Hawai‘i should build to keep O‘ahu’s lights on through 2050 while transitioning to 100 percent clean power, and what it will cost. The analysis uses a planning model — the kind of computer model utility companies and grid regulators run when they have to decide which power plants to build over the next two decades — and solves it more than three hundred times under different assumptions about oil prices, solar and battery costs, land-use rules, the Public Utility Commission-approved Waiau Repower, and the JERA liquefied natural gas proposal. Three findings hold across all the variations tested; cheaper solar and battery deployment is by far the biggest economic lever Hawai‘i has; under defensible current cost assumptions, O‘ahu does not need to build any new fuel-burning power plant beyond what is already committed; and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are the largest non-solar economic lever — if the technology delivers on the optimistic cost trajectory.

California Salmon Strategy for a Hotter, Drier Future: Restoring Aquatic Ecosystems in the Age of Climate Change, Second Progress Report, State of California

In January 2024, California adopted the California Salmon Strategy for a Hotter, Drier Future (Salmon Strategy), identifying six priorities and 71 actions to restore struggling salmon populations. Since the release of the Salmon Strategy, the state has fully completed 49% of the actions and partially met or advanced progress on 51% of the actions. This progress report describes progress for the 71 actions across two stages, those that are in-progress and those that have been completed. For example, salmon fishing is back, salmon are returning to the Klamath Basin, salmon have been reintroduced to cold-water habitat on the Yuba River, and river flows for salmon have been protected in the Scott and Shasta rivers.

The Impact of New York's 2026 Climate Law Retreat, Jonathan Binder and Vincent Nolette, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

On May 26, 2026, New York State enacted significant revisions to its 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). The 2026 Amendments, which include changes to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission accounting methods, the statewide GHG emission limits, and the requirement to adopt implementing regulations, collectively weaken the Act's ambition. New York’s retreat from state climate action after championing it for years reflects a broader national trend of de-prioritizing mitigation efforts. The 2026 Amendments will have vast and important consequences for the implementation of the CLCPA. Numerous actions will need to be updated through rulemaking, guidance, or other administrative processes. This will require a significant and resource-intensive undertaking by the State, and especially by the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). Amending the statute was largely done behind closed doors as part of the state budget process. By contrast, most of these administrative actions to implement the amended CLCPA will require a public-facing process. In the background, the risk and actual commencement of litigation will continue to shape the Act’s outcomes. Despite these amendments, DEC, with support of various stakeholders, retains significant discretion to maximize the CLCPA's benefits through strong implementation.

Stafford Act's Requirement to Consider Climate Change in State Hazard Mitigation Plans, Olivia Guarna, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

Congress passed the Stafford Act in 1988 to provide a means for sustained and coordinated federal aid in response to disasters. The Stafford Act includes a comprehensive non-emergency hazard mitigation program. Hazard mitigation assistance empowers states, tribes, and local governments to engage in planning and mitigation activities that improve disaster outcomes and minimize losses in their jurisdictions. A key component of the Stafford Act’s hazard mitigation assistance programs, which are implemented by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the development of state hazard mitigation plans. The Stafford Act requires state hazard mitigation plans to “identify the natural hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities of areas in the State.” The author argues that, under the Stafford Act, state plans must consider the effects of climate change on natural hazard risks and vulnerabilities.

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid, Patrick Hoffmann and Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz Research

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world's fastest-growing sources of electricity demand. Installed capacity is expected to double by 2030, with AI workloads already accounting for 15–20% of data-center electricity use and potentially approaching 40% by the end of the decade. Yet the sector's environmental footprint remains underestimated as most analyses focus only on operational electricity use. The authors take a broader systems view across 26 countries (+93% of global capacity), adding lifecycle emissions, water use and AI's growing resource demand. Identical workloads can generate up to 24 times more emissions depending on the emission intensity of the grid, making location as decisive as demand growth. Fossil-dependent grids in Indonesia, India and Malaysia exceed 600 gCO2/kWh, compared with under 30 gCO2/kWh in Norway and Sweden. The US and China, which host the largest data-center clusters, sit in between at 384 gCO2/kWh and 526 gCO2/kWh, respectively, giving Europe's cleaner power mix a structural advantage for low-carbon AI growth. These disparities are amplified by transmission and distribution losses of 10–15% in some markets, while less reliable grids raise electricity needs and dependence on backup generation.

A Study of Architectural Measures to Reduce Overheating. Literature Review and Analysis, Historic England

The authors identified different historic architectural measures used in England and in British colonial architecture abroad. They investigated how passive architectural measures, such as awnings or shutters, have been used in the past to reduce solar gain and seasonal overheating. The different measures are supporting Historic England in identifying appropriate adaptation options to a changing climate. As temperatures increase, there is a growing risk of overheating occurring in buildings. This could lead to thermal discomfort, health implications for building occupants due to thermal stress, and increased energy usage due to a rising demand for cooling to counter the overheating. In addition to identifying what measures were used historically, the authors also sought to identify the different risks, regulations and limitations that might need to be considered when contemplating their integration into an existing historic building.

Glass Half Full: Building a Decarbonized U.S. Power Sector, Lily Bermel, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) was built, sold, and attacked as the largest climate investment in U.S. history. It enacted an extensive suite of clean energy tax credits and included hundreds of billions of dollars in grant and loan programs, reestablishing the United States as a climate leader. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) rescinded the vast majority of the IRA’s grant and loan programs and restructured the clean energy tax credit framework by phasing out the wind and solar tax credits and adding restrictions to the others. Many clean energy advocates saw these changes as the death of the IRA and warned of dire consequences for the American energy transition. Indeed, removing and restricting energy tax credits will contribute to higher energy prices, project cancellations, job losses, and less energy added to the grid at a time when power demand is surging. Policymakers designing the next wave of decarbonization policy need to start with a clear-eyed understanding of how the current environment shapes the energy transition. The author provides one for the power sector, the backbone of that transition. The author assesses how much the current policy environment preserves the benefits of the prior policy environment, situates those modeled results within the real-world forces shaping delivery, and draws out what the findings imply for future policy priorities and public spending.

The Power Behind AI. Wave of Dirty Gas Power Plants Planned for Data Centers, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project:

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over. The plants would also release nearly 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution, which would have the climate-warming effect of 140 million cars and trucks driving for a year or the emissions from the entire nation of Australia. Beyond greenhouse gases, this wave of power plants for data centers could also release 159,142 tons of health-harming air pollutants, including 44,281 tons of nitrogen oxides that contribute to smog and lung damage and 32,684 tons of fine particulate matter, which can trigger heart and asthma attacks. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. This pollution is a small fraction of the likely environmental effect of the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry and affiliated data centers. These 74 planned gas plants, including 71 new power plants and three plant expansions, would be connected directly to data centers — so-called “behind-the-meter” power plants. These plants are designed to provide their electricity primarily to data centers and not to compete with local households and businesses on regional power grids. More power plants are being planned across the U.S. that will indirectly serve the growing data center industry along with other consumers on the grid, which will likely drive up electricity prices for nearby residents.

City of Boulder, Climate Action Plan, City of Boulder

This Climate Action Plan outlines how Boulder's aim to reduce emissions, strengthen infrastructure resilience and invest in communities most affected by climate change. It connects long-term goals with practical strategies already in motion across the city. Already occurring are extreme heat, longer droughts, greater fire risk and rising energy burdens, especially for community members with the fewest resources. These effects are not future threats. They are here now. The city is responding with clear targets, coordinated action and a focus on long-term public benefit.

Mental Images of Global Warming in the Indian Mind, Thaker et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Most Indians are unfamiliar with the term "global warming": When asked to name the first word or phrase that came to mind, 58% were unable to give a specific response or said they do not know. Those familiar with “global warming” associate it primarily with heat, water, and pollution. Familiarity with the term “global warming” varies sharply, with higher recognition among more educated, higher income, and urban respondents.

Investing in the green economy 2026: Resilience and reacceleration, Dai et al., London Stock Exchange Group

The green economy has surpassed US$10 trillion despite energy shocks, policy divergence and market volatility. Against a backdrop of volatile markets, energy supply disruption and rising electricity demand, the authors analyze green investment opportunities and how the green transition is evolving by examining the size, growth, performance and financing of the global green economy across asset classes. The authors also examined how green assets are scaled via merger and acquisition with profitability analysis, the role of green bonds in supporting capital flows, and the diverging regional green economy shaped by decarbonization and energy security priorities.

50 State of Energy Affordability, Apadula et al., North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center

The authors provide updates on state and utility actions to address rising electricity costs, including utility business model reforms, utility oversight and cost recovery, infrastructure planning and procurement processes, customer cost allocation, and customer programs.

Economic, Consumer Cost, and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes, Robbie Orvis and Daniel O’Brien, Energy Innovation Policy and Technology

The United States’ energy policy framework has shifted dramatically during the second Trump administration and 119th Congress. Over the past one and a half years, the federal government has overhauled many legislative and regulatory policies, creating significant implications for clean energy deployment. Energy prices continue rising, exacerbating the affordability crisis Americans are facing. The authors used the Energy Policy Simulator to model federal policy decisions made since January 2025 to determine what the near future holds for families and businesses in terms of energy costs, public health, job losses, and grid reliability. The authors analyze the effects of policy changes on energy prices, the economy, air pollution, and healthcare spending from 2026 to 2040. The author's modeling shows higher energy costs, worsening public health effects, and less capacity added to the grid – blocking new generation when it is needed most and increasing utility costs.

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, Dardour et al., International Renewable Energy Agency

Renewables remain the most cost-competitive source of new electricity generation. More than 90% of utility-scale renewable projects commissioned in 2025 delivered power below the cost of the cheapest new fossil-fuel plant built in their market. After more than a decade of steep declines, renewable power costs are stabilizing. In 2025, Solar PV remained at its 2024 level of USD $44/MWh, while wind continued to improve, with onshore wind falling to USD $33/MWh and offshore wind to USD $78/MWh. In contrast, most dispatchable renewable technologies recorded higher costs, with hydropower, geothermal and concentrating solar power rising to USD $62/MWh, USD $89/MWh and USD $115/MWh, respectively. Bioenergy was the exception, declining to USD $86/MWh. In 2025, renewables helped avoid an estimated USD 480 billion in fossil-fuel costs and about 8.4 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions, confirming their role not only as the cheapest new power, but as a pillar of energy security, economic stability and resilience. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Carbon Brief

Clean power added more to global energy supplies than any other source in 2025, according to the latest Energy Institute statistical review of world energy.

Outside the Covid pandemic, it was also the first year ever in which wind and solar, when combined, contributed more new energy than any of the individual fossil fuels.

The findings illustrate the “growing prominence” of electricity in the global energy system, according to the Energy Institute, a professional membership body that took over the production of the annual statistical review from oil firm BP in 2023.

It notes that electricity demand is rising much faster, at 3% in 2025, than energy use overall at 1.7% – and that all of the new power supply came from low-carbon sources.

While it includes data on data-centre demand for the first time, the review shows that these only make up 2% of all electricity use and 15% of the increase in 2025.

(The review does not explore other sources of demand, but separate data shows electrification of industry, heat and transport is a far larger driver of growth than data centres.)

At the same time, every source of energy – including coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydro – also reached global all-time highs in 2025, the statistical review shows.

While the 86% of “primary energy” that came from fossil fuels is a record low, their real contribution to the economy is far lower, because roughly two-thirds of their energy is lost during combustion.

Below, Carbon Brief highlights the key findings of the review in six charts.

• Global energy supplies increase 1.7% in 2025
• Fossil fuels met a record-low 86.2% of global energy supply
• The ‘primary energy fallacy’ ‘inflates fossil fuels’
• Wind and solar were biggest source of new energy in 2025
• Clean energy met all of global electricity growth in 2025
• China generates more power than the US, EU and India combined

Global energy supplies increase 1.7% in 2025

The review shows that global energy supply reached a record high in 2025, climbing 10 exajoules (EJ, 1.7%) to more than 600EJ for the first time ever.

Within this total, there were new all-time highs for every energy source: oil; coal; gas; nuclear; wind and solar; as well as hydro and other renewables. This is shown in the figure below.

Total global energy supply by fuel, exajoules. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

Notably, coal hit a new record of 166EJ in 2025, up 0.7% from a year earlier and 2.8% above the level reached in 2014, which had been seen as a potential peak for the fuel.

Wind and solar saw the fastest growth, up by 18.3% year-on-year, as well as adding more to global supplies – in combination – than any single fuel source.

Fossil fuels met a record-low 86.2% of global energy supply

Nevertheless, on the basis of these primary energy figures, the contribution of low-carbon sources to the global energy system still looks relatively small.

The latest data shows that fossil fuels made up 86.2% of global primary energy supplies, as shown in the figure below.

Share of total global energy supply from fossil fuels and clean-energy sources, including nuclear and renewables, %. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

The rise of nuclear power had pushed the fossil-fuel share of global energy down to 91% as long ago as 1986, before the Chernobyl disaster pulled the plug on further growth.

It is only in the past decade that clean-energy sources have started to gain more ground, as a result of the rapid expansion of wind and solar.

The ‘primary energy fallacy’ ‘inflates fossil fuels’

Crucially, however, the statistical review is based on “total energy supply” (TES), a measure of primary energy. This counts the energy stored in coal, oil, gas and nuclear fuel going into the energy system, whereas for renewables it measures the amount of electricity coming out.

Yet, most of the energy in fossil fuels is lost as waste heat during combustion.

In fact, some two-thirds of all primary energy is lost before it can be turned into useful energy that moves a car, warms a home or keeps the lights on.

This gives rise to the “primary energy fallacy”, which tends to “inflate…the perceived contribution of fossil fuels” and the difficulty of replacing them with low-carbon energy sources.

For example, the figure in the post shows that 105 units of energy went into the global transport sector – almost all of it oil – but this only generated 20 units of transport “energy services”.

In other words, less than 20% of the primary energy being used for transport actually ends up moving people or goods, while the remaining 80% was lost as waste heat.

Until 2024, the statistical review sought to address this issue by using the “substitution method” for clean-energy sources. This listed the primary energy supplied by wind and solar, for example, as the amount of fossil fuels that would have been needed to generate the same amount of electricity.

It stopped using this approach in 2025, explaining that this would reveal the higher efficiency of a clean-energy system that loses less energy during fossil-fuel combustion. It explained:

“Put simply, in future we will need to supply less energy in the form of clean electricity to undertake the same amount of work as the equivalent energy supplies from fossil fuels. Primary energy demand will decrease as the energy system increasingly electrifies and renewable electricity continues to increase its share of generation..”

Wind and solar were biggest source of new energy in 2025

With this in mind, it is all the more notable that wind and solar, in combination, were the world’s biggest source of new energy in 2025, as shown in the figure below.

Again, perhaps two-thirds of the new primary energy added by fossil fuels last year will never actually contribute useful work to the economy, because it will be lost as waste heat.

In contrast, the new energy added by wind and solar is in the form of electricity and almost all of it can be used directly to power factories, homes, appliances and electric vehicles.

Contribution to the change in total global energy supply by fuel, %. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

Moreover, wind and solar saw the fastest growth by far, up 18% in 2025 alone. Over the past decade, they expanded fivefold, while coal, oil and gas grew by 6%, 9% and 21%, respectively. 

Clean energy met all of global electricity growth in 2025

The impact of renewables is clearest in the power sector, where combined with a new record for nuclear power, they met all of the growth in global electricity demand in 2025.

This is shown in the figure below, which illustrates how fossil generation was flat last year and how wind and solar now generate more electricity than hydro or nuclear power.

Global electricity generation by fuel, terawatt hours. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

The review says that wind and solar power, when combined, grew by 18% in 2025, whereas there was a small decline in coal generation balanced by a small rise for gas.

Overall, it says that global electricity generation increased by some 940 terawatt hours (TWh, 3%), roughly three times the annual demand of the UK.

Separate figures, included in the review for the first time, show that data centres used 788TWh of electricity in 2025, up 130TWh on a year earlier.

This means that data centres accounted for 2% of global electricity demand. 

China generates more power than the US, EU and India combined

The Energy Institute report says that the power sector is set to play an increasingly important role, because it is growing more quickly than other parts of the global energy system.

There is also increasing political attention on the idea of using expanded clean-power supplies to rapidly electrify other parts of the economy, particularly heat and transport.

The COP31 presidency has called for countries to back a global goal for 35% of “final” energy to come from electricity by 2035, against a global average today of around 22%.

China is well ahead of the global average, with electricity making up 30% of its final energy supplies in 2025. It recently adopted a 35% by 2030 target for electrification.

One reason it has been able to do this is the huge scale of its electricity system. Indeed, China now generates more electricity than the US, EU and India combined, as shown in the figure below.

Electricity generation by country, terawatt hours. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

While much of the rise in China’s electricity has historically come from coal-fired generation, there was enough growth of clean-power sources to push coal down last year.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Update (Thursday, July 2, 3 p.m. EDT):

Extreme heat warnings covered much of the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. on Thursday – including the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to southern Maine – as a well-predicted heat wave intensified with the approach of a holiday weekend, bringing widespread temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Millions of people are set to experience the hottest Fourth of July ever recorded in the history of their town or city. Parades, concerts, and other events were being rearranged, rescheduled, or moved indoors to avoid the worst of the dangerous heat.

As the United States prepared to commemorate the nation’s 250th birthday, the U.S. capital had entered one of the worst heat waves in its history.  As of midday Thursday, the official forecast for Washington’s Reagan National Airport was for highs of 102°F, 104°F, and 103°F for Thursday through Saturday, July 2-4. These readings would melt the D.C. daily records of 101°F, 101°F, and 100°F. In observations that go back to 1871, Washington has never recorded two consecutive days of 103°F, and the only three-day streak of highs reaching at least 102°F occurred way back on July 19-21, 1930.

Further north, the nation’s first capital city, Philadelphia, was on track for predicted highs of 103°F, 103°F and 101°F on Thursday through Saturday, which would tie the daily record on Thursday and approach the city’s monthly record of 104°F set on July 3, 1966. For what it’s worth, the temperature recorded in Philadelphia by president-to-be Thomas Jefferson at 1:00 p.m. on the day the Declaration of Independence was signed – July 4, 1776 – was a mere 72.5°F.

In New York, Central Park had already reached 100°F by 2 p.m., the first time it has reached the century mark since July 18, 2012. The forecast was for 101°F on Friday and 97°F on Saturday.  In 157 years of recordkeeping, Central Park has only had 5 pairs of consecutive days that both reached at least 101°F. The only pair of 102°F readings at Central Park occurred during the height of the central U.S. Dust Bowl on July 9-10, 1936.

Original article, posted on Monday, June 29:

As our fossil-fuel-warmed world careens into what’s likely to be months of record global-scale heat goosed by El Niño, early season heat waves are already proving tragic this summer. Most of central and northern Europe was assaulted over the past week by the continent’s worst heat wave ever recorded before the core summer months of July and August, and at least 1,300 people have died as a result.

Meanwhile, extreme heat watches extended along the U.S. East Coast on Monday from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania to southern Maine, foretelling a miserable and potentially record-setting heat wave that will run from midweek into the Fourth of July holiday across much of the U.S. east of the Appalachians. Heat indexes – reflecting air temperature plus humidity – may exceed 110 degrees across much of the extreme-heat watch area.

As of midday Monday, the official forecast for Washington’s Reagan National Airport was for highs of 99°F, 103°F, 103°F, and 101°F for Wednesday through Saturday, July 1-4. The city has never recorded two consecutive days of 103°F, and only a handful of heat waves have produced four-day strings of 99°F. In New York, Central Park’s forecast highs of 91°, 96°, 95°F, and 91°F for July 1-4 wouldn’t be as historic, but they would still make for a hot, sweaty lead-up to the holiday, especially with lows possibly staying above 80°F for two nights.

The National Weather Service office warned folks in and around Philadelphia: “Very warm low temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s at night will not offer any relief from the heat. This combined with multiple days of near record-breaking temperatures will exacerbate the impacts from the heat and humidity.”

The climate change connection

In a rapid-response analysis released on Friday, “Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades,” the nonprofit research group World Weather Attribution said: “In 1976, when some of the previous European records were set, the 2026 temperatures would have been virtually impossible to occur in June, while also highly unlikely at any time of the year. In 2003, the first major heatwave of this century, daytime heat like this would still have been very rare, about 10 times less likely than today, while nighttime temperatures such as this June would have been more than a hundred times less likely in 2003.”

“Extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope,” the group added.

The past week’s European heat wave was fierce, widespread, and prolonged – a perfect storm of torrid misery and danger, particularly in France. Early last week, temperatures soared as high as 44.6 degress Celsius (112 degrees Fahrenheit) in Bordeaux.

The brutal heat ignited a long-simmering debate on the role of air conditioning in France, where policy, custom, and legacy building styles have inhibited its use but where dense urban living without AC as heat waves worsen has led to horrific death tolls over the past 25 years.

Europe’s heat wave responsible for over 1,300 deaths

The World Health Organization said on Sunday that more than 1,300 excess deaths – those beyond the usual mortality rate for this time of year – have been recorded because of Europe’s record-breaking heat wave since June 21. Health officials in France independently reported 1,000 more deaths than expected in the country since Wednesday. The heat-related death toll is undoubtedly much higher, and we should expect the final toll from heat in Europe in 2026 will measure in the tens of thousands, as has occurred in each of the last four years.

Figure 1. Heat waves over the period 1900-2025 in which analyses have found that at least 100 heat-related deaths occurred.

The preliminary data for 2026 already makes the current heat wave the 15th-deadliest in world history. Most of these deadly heat waves have occurred in Europe. However, a 2026 paper found that one-day extreme heat waves in India in excess of the 97th percentile for temperature kill about 3,400 people, and five-day extreme heat waves kill about 30,000 people. There have been several heat waves of this magnitude in India in recent years, so India should have many more entries in Fig. 1 than shown.

The high heat death tolls in Europe are from a combination of factors:

• Building design: A lack of air conditioning, combined with architecture designed to retain heat during the long winters.
• Methodology: More rigorous techniques of reporting of heat deaths over time and as compared to other areas.
• Age: A relatively old population.
• Accelerated warming: According to the World Health Organization, Europe is the fastest-warming continent on Earth, heating at roughly twice the global average rate.

With heat, as with other phenomena such as hurricanes, scientists are now better able to comprehensively assess how extreme weather and climate events lead to premature death. National agencies and researchers once focused on heat-related deaths that were direct, such as those caused by heat stroke. Today, indirect heat-related deaths – for example, those caused by cardiovascular and respiratory conditions that are worsened by the heat and pollution trapped during heat waves – are being analyzed more comprehensively. This change is occurring at the same time extreme heat itself is getting measurably worse – and as heat-related adaptations actually improve in some places, in a high-pressure race with time and a warming planet.

More Euro heat to come?

Record and near-record heat may return over western Europe by late this week into the following week as the ridge of high pressure rebuilds. After highs in the 80s Fahrenheit this week, Paris is predicted to again approach 100°F by early next week. Likewise, London may boomerang from the 70s this week back toward or above 95°F next week.

The oceanic link to this summer’s heat in Europe

Because of the influence of the nearby Atlantic and Mediterranean, which take time to warm and cool with the seasons, the oceanic climates of Europe tend to see their most intense heat toward the latter months of summer. However, the waters adjoining Europe are enmeshed in a marine heat wave right now. Just south of France and Italy, the northwest Mediterranean sea surface temperature is running as high as eight degrees Celsius (14°F) above average.

West of Spain and Portugal, unusually high sea surface temperatures of 68°F (20°C) extend hundreds of miles to the west. This warm water is adding heat and moisture to the overlying atmosphere and stoking the humid heat plaguing France and the British Isles. As noted by meteorologist James Peacock (MetSwift) on X: “Usually if 20°C or higher [temperatures at 850 millibars] are to reach the UK, it has to come from the European landmass. Not so this summer, when it could just as easily come from the southwest …& be far more humid as a result. In the decades ahead, this may cease to be an unusual situation.”

Three firefighters die in Colorado

On Saturday afternoon, June 27, wildland firefighters with the Rifle Helitack crew engaged with the Snyder Fire in Mesa County, on the Colorado border with Utah. They experienced extreme fire weather conditions: high heat combined with winds gusting up to 57 mph (91 km/hr). The fast-moving flames overran their position, forcing five crew members to deploy their emergency fire shelters. Three firefighters were killed and two others were severely burned. The survivors were flown to a burn center, where they are being treated. Both U.S. Wildland Fire Service and Forest Service personnel were involved. The fire is estimated at over 28,000 acres.

The previous most recent line-of-duty fatality of a U.S. wildland firefighter occurred on September 26, 2025, when Isabella “Bella” Oscarson, a 26-year-old crew module leader with the Idaho Department of Lands, was killed while assisting with a prescribed burn in the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forests in Idaho. She was fatally struck by a falling tree while working on the fire line.

“Burnover” incidents such as the one on Sunday, where firefighters are trapped by a fast-moving blaze, can be especially deadly. A total of 96 firefighters were killed and 78 injured in a total of 41 burnover incidents in the 28 years from 1990 through 2017, according to a USDA Forest Service report. Five incidents alone led to 44 of the fatalities.

Figure 2. A plume of dense smoke partially obscured the sun in Boulder, Colorado, on Sunday evening, June 28, 2026. The plume was generated by the Willow Fire, a few miles northwest of Leadville, Colorado, which exploded from five to about 1,000 acres on Sunday afternoon. As of midday Monday, the Willow Fire was 0% contained. (Image credit: Bob Henson)

An early and significant wildfire season in the Western U.S.

Significant wildland fire activity is occurring across multiple geographic areas in the U.S., with 3.1 million acres having burned so far in 2026. Over the past 10 years, only 2022 (with 3.6 million acres burned) was this active so early in the year. Today, the U.S. National Interagency Fire Center raised its national preparedness level to Preparedness Level 4 on a scale of one to five. The national preparedness level was last raised to the highest level, PL 5, on July 18, 2024. Reaching PL 5 indicates that the nation’s firefighting resources are severely stretched. It is triggered by a combination of high fire weather indices, widespread large fire activity, and an extreme demand for personnel and equipment. It is likely that PL 5 will be declared in July this year.

With an unusually strong trough of low pressure over the Southwest U.S. expected to bring strong winds and very little precipitation this week, firefighting resources will be strained, and there will be a continued high potential for new large fires to emerge across multiple geographic areas. The center wrote:

“The southern Intermountain West will continue to be plagued by dry and unusually windy conditions today. Extremely critical fire weather, with southwesterly winds gusting from 30-60 mph, locally stronger in favored downslope areas, along with relative humidity from 5-15% will be most likely across northern Arizona into eastern Utah, western Colorado and far northwestern New Mexico. These conditions are extraordinarily rare for late June, and impacts will likely be severe.”

Utah has seen the worst wildfire conditions in the U.S. this year, and the governor said that the 2026 wildfires have been the most destructive in Utah history. A State of Emergency has been declared for the state as five fires have run tens of thousands of acres, and a statewide ban on fireworks displays has been ordered for the July 4th weekend. Over 1,000 people statewide have been evacuated because of the fires.

The largest wildfire currently burning in the U.S. is the Cottonwood Fire in Utah, which is at 94,000 acres burned. Nearly 1,000 firefighters are deployed on the fire, which is 0% contained.

Smoke from the wildfires has thus far mostly avoided heavily populated areas, but you can follow the smoke forecasts for the fires by referencing our post from last year, 15 sources of wildfire smoke forecasts for North America.

Extreme heat records broken across Europe

At least 10 European nations or territories recently recorded all-time national highs, meaning the hottest single temperature ever reliably recorded at any town or city nationwide. Below are a few of these preliminary national records, as compiled by weather historian Christopher Burt (author of “Extreme Weather”), primarily from data posted by independent weather-records analyst Maximiliano Herrera. Note that all of the new records broke ones that occurred in late July or August, weeks later in summer than we are now:

Jersey (UK territory)
39.3°C (102.6°F) at Maison St. Louis on June 25
Old: 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Maison St. Louis on Jul. 18, 2022

Guernsey (UK territory)
36.4°C (97.5°F) at Rocquaine Bay on June 25
Old: 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Rocquaine Bay on Aug. 5, 2003

Luxembourg
40.9°C (105.6°F) at Reckange on June 26
Old: 40.8°C (105.4°F) at Steinsel on Jul. 25, 2019

Denmark
37.0°C (98.6°F) at Odum on June 27
Old: 36.4°C (97.5°F) at Holtstebro on Aug. 10, 1975

Germany
41.7°C (107.1°F) at Coschen on June 28
Old: 41.2°C (106.2°F) at two sites on Jul. 25, 2019

Czech Republic
41.9°C (107.4°F) at Doksany on June 28
Old: 40.4°C (104.7°F) at Dobrichovice on Aug. 20, 2012

Poland
40.5°C (104.9°F) at Slubice on June 28
Old: 40.2°C (104.4°F) at Proszkow on Jul. 29, 1921

Belarus
40.4°C (104.7°F) at Pinsk on June 29
Old: 38.9°C (102.0°F) at Gomel on Aug. 8, 2010

Slovakia
41.3°C (106.3°F) at Kamenice nad Hronom, June 30
Old: 41.0°C (105.8°F)at Tur?a nad Bodvou, June 29, 2026
Before that: 40.3°C (104.5°F) at Hurbanovo on Jul. 20, 2007

Hungary: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Szecseny on June 30
Old: 41.9° (107.4°F) at Kiskunhalas on Jul. 20, 2007

Perhaps more extraordinary was the extreme humidity that accompanied the heat wave, which helped allow new all-time national records for highest minimum temperature to be set in every country in Europe except Italy and Greece, according to Herrera. His nomination for craziest record set in Europe was the 40.4°C (104.7°F) at Pinsk on June 29, which set a new all-time heat record for Belarus. Herrera commented:

Just think this:
All time record at Pinsk was 36.3°C in August 1905
??It took 121 years but it got smashed by 4.1°C
INSANE

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

I am finalizing a textbook on climate risk and am posting chapters as I finish them. I’d previously posted chapters about embedded energy, physical climate risk, and transition risk. This post is a chapter on attribution of extreme weather to climate change. It is an emerging battleground in the public debate over climate change, so this chapter is an opportunity to get up to speed on the science.

Introduction

In the aftermath of any major weather disaster, the question inevitably arises: “Did climate change cause this disaster?” However, this is a bad way to think about the problem.Climate change does not cause a rainstorm, a heatwave, or a hurricane in a direct sense. These hazards would still occur in a world without human influence on the climate: hurricanes would still form over warm ocean waters, heatwaves would remain a product of stationary high-pressure systems, and low-pressure systems will always generate rain and the occasional flood.

But climate change can make these events more intense. It takes a heatwave and pushes the temperature higher. It adds moisture to a rain event, generating more intense rainfall, enhancing flooding. Warmer oceans make a hurricane’s winds stronger and its rainfall more severe.

Therefore, the scientifically interesting question is not “Did climate change cause this?”, but about influence:

1.How much morelikely did climate change make this event?

2.How much moreintense did climate change make this event?

Answering these questions is the work of a rapidly advancing field of science called Extreme Event Attribution. This chapter will explore the methods scientists use to disentangle the roles of natural variability and climate change.

To understand the two different ways of looking at the problem, let’s examine a hot 38°C (99°F) day in a hypothetical city (like Houston, Texas) and examine each question in turn.

1. How much more likely has climate change made a 38°C day?

This figure sets up how scientists look at the problem.It shows two hypothetical distributions of daily temperature for the city. The red curve is the present-day distribution: the climate as it actually is today. The distributions tell you how often each temperature occurs in that world.For example, today’s temperature distribution peaks around 35°C with a value of 17%, meaning that 17% of days have temperatures around 35°C.

The blue curve is a counterfactual: the distribution that would occur in a world without climate change. For this hypothetical example, climate change has shifted the climate a few degrees toward warmer temperatures.

Given the two distributions, we can now answer the question of how much more likely a 38°C day is.In the counterfactual no-climate-change world, a 38°C day occurred on roughly 1.5% of days; in the present-day climate, it occurs on about 6% of days.

We define the relative risk to be the risk of the event in today’s climate divided by the risk in the counterfactual climate:

where Pa is the probability of the event in the world with climate change (6%) and Pc is the probability in the counterfactual world (1.5%). Thus, the relative risk in this example is 6%/1.5% = 4. We can therefore say that, “Climate change made this 38°C day four times as likely” or that, “The relative risk of a 38°C day is four.”

Because of the shape of the distributions, the relative risk increases with temperature.Using the same curves, a 42°C day occurs on 0.013% of days in the counterfactual world and 0.19% in the world with climate change, implying a relative risk of 15.This confirms that the hotter the day, the more the relative risk of that day has increased.In fact, we are approaching a world (if we’re not already there) with so much climate change that events occur that could not have occurred in the counterfactual world (Pc ≈ 0).For those events, the risk ratio is infinity.

Temperatures near average have a risk ratio around 1, meaning their probability isn’t changing much due to climate change.Below average temperatures (e.g., 27°C) have risk ratios less than one, indicating that they are occurring less often than in the counterfactual world.

2. How much did climate change warm this day?

This is a different way to ask the same question: how much hotter was the day because of climate change?To answer this, we look at the graph horizontally. We find the probability of a 38°C day on the present-day curve and trace it back to the same probability on the counterfactual curve.

In this example, we find that the same probability for today’s 38°C corresponds to a temperature of 36°C in the counterfactual climate. In this case, we can say, “Climate change made this hot day 2°C warmer.”

While some economic actors (e.g., governments, insurers) may focus on probability, most impact evaluations are clearer when examined through magnitude changes. In other words, it may be of more practical use to know that climate change warmed this day by 2°C or increased total rainfall by 30% than knowing that climate change increased the probability by a factor of four.

Thus, we can express climate change’s contribution to this hypothetical 38°C day in two ways.We can say that 1) climate change made the event four times more likely, or that 2) climate change added 2°C to the temperature.

Determining the counterfactual world

As discussed in the last section, estimating the impact of climate change on a meteorological event requires assessing the distribution of those events in the present-day world and in a counterfactual world without climate change.

To establish the present-day distribution of climate events (red curves in the plots above), researchers rely primarily on a combination of real-world observational records and numerical climate-model simulations of the present-day climate. To estimate the counterfactual climate (blue curves), the world that would have existed had human activities not altered the climate system, scientists will often run these same climate models but with human influences removed (e.g., carbon dioxide and other climate forcers set at pre-industrial values).

Researchers can also use historical observations to estimate the counterfactual climate. In some cases, researchers can use observations from a time period when human influence on the climate was small, such as the late 19th or early 20th century. As an example, this is a plot of Houston’s daily maximum temperature in the 1970s and 2016-2025:

There is a clear shift in the climate between these two periods, much — but not necessarily all of it — due to climate change.This shift made a day with a maximum temperature of 37°C (99°F) about 6.5 times more likely (i.e., risk ratio = 6.5); alternatively, it increased the temperature of this day by 2.3°C (4.1°F).

Notably, in the 1970s, daily maximum temperatures above 40°C (104°F) never occurred in Houston, but they did occur in the 2016-2025 period.Such days would therefore be considered virtually impossible without climate change.

One thing to look out for: After every extreme event, fossil-fuel interests will take to social media to point out that a more severe event — e.g., more rain, higher winds, and higher temperatures — occurred in, e.g., 18XX (some year in the late 19th century). They use this to incorrectly imply that climate change therefore could not have influenced the event.

But that’s a logical error.If you look at the probability distributions from Houston, you’ll see that you could have had a 39°C day in the counterfactual 1970s world (it’s just very unlikely). But the existence of a 39°C day in the 1970s doesn’t contradict the conclusion that the 37°C day you just lived through was enhanced by climate change.

Traditional detection and attribution

There is another way scientists connect climate change to extreme events known as detection and attribution.This approach focuses on trends in some quantity — for example, the trend in the annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount, with units of mm/decade.This is different from extreme event attribution, which focuses on individual extreme weather events.

As a simple example, suppose we have an observational time series of the aforementioned maximum daily rainfall at a station in the U.S. This gives us one number each year: the maximum daily rainfall in 1950, the maximum daily rainfall in 1951, and so on:

We want to know whether the variations in in this observed (synthetic) time series can be attributed to greenhouse gases from human activities, aerosols (basically air pollution and dust, this is partially due to human activities), or some combination of them. These different drivers have different trends over time: greenhouse gases have been steadily increasing, while aerosols in the U.S. increased until around 1970 and have declined since then.

The first step in detection and attribution is to run climate models to estimate the fingerprint of each process. To do this, scientists run climate models with just the increase in greenhouse gases, and then run the models again with just the changes in air pollution.These runs tell us what the observations would look like if just this forcing was present in the atmosphere.

We then compare the observed time series to the model fingerprints. A simple way to do this is with a regression model:

Here, obs(t) is the observed time series. G(t) is the greenhouse gas fingerprint timeseries, and A(t) is the aerosol fingerprint timeseries.

We then use regression techniques to estimate the coefficients bGHG and bAER, which tell us how much of each fingerprint is present in the observations. e is the residual, the part of the observations not explained by the fingerprints.

Here are the results:

In the left panel, the blue line is the synthetic observations and the orange line is the fit:

where G(t) and A(t) are the fingerprints above.As you can see, we can closely fit the observations with the fingerprints for greenhouse gases and aerosols.

Next, we examine the estimated coefficients (bGHG and bAER) and their uncertainty ranges (right panel). If a coefficient is statistically different from zero, we say that fingerprint has been detected. That’s the case here — the uncertainty bars do not cross zero — so the fingerprints for greenhouse gases and aerosols are detected.

This is the basic logic of detection and attribution.

Importantly, detection and attribution does not allow us to link specific events (e.g., Hurricane Harvey) to climate change.Rather, it allows us to connect the trend in some type of extreme weather (hurricanes) to human activities.

If you want to play around with a simple demonstration that shows how this works, click here.

This is an extremely powerful technique that has laid the foundation for much of our understanding of how climate change is affecting extreme weather.Here are some key results:

• Hot extremes and heatwaves: Humans are clearly making hot extremes more frequent and more intense through human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

• Heavy precipitation: Human influence, especially greenhouse gas emissions, is likely the main driver of the observed global-scale intensification of heavy precipitation over land.

• Flash flooding due to extreme rainfall: Scientists have high confidence that stronger extreme precipitation leads to more frequent and larger surface-water and flash floods.

• Drought: Scientists have medium confidence that human-caused climate change has increased drought1 in some regions.

• Tropical cyclones: Scientists have medium confidence that human influence has contributed to extreme tropical cyclone rainfall.In addition, the global proportion of the strongest tropical cyclones has likely increased over the past four decades, a change that cannot be explained with natural factors alone.

• Fire weather: Scientists have concluded with medium confidence that compound hot, dry, and windy conditions have become more likely in some regions.

Confidence in attribution studies

In reading the previous section, you saw that scientists have varying levels of confidence in the attribution statements.Some conclusions are termed likely or very likely, and confidence may be medium or high.How is this confidence determined?

The foundation of any attribution study is a solid physical understanding of why climate change would affect a particular type of event. If we can’t provide a mechanism, you really can’t believe an attribution study.

For many extreme events, the physics is well-understood and there is a clear connection between the climate and the severity of the events:

• Heatwaves: Greenhouse gases trap heat, shifting the distribution of temperatures toward warmer values, thereby making extreme heat more probable.

• Rainfall: The connection is the physical fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This means that when a storm system develops, there is more available moisture to convert into rain, leading to more intense downpours.

• Wildfires: Warmer temperatures produce a drier atmosphere, dry out vegetation and make it more flammable.Thus, wildfires are expected to be bigger and more intense in a warmer climate.

For other phenomena, the physics is murkier. For example, there is no robust theory explaining how the total number of tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms (tropical cyclone is the general term for storms known as hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the Pacific, and cyclones in the Indian Ocean).Right now, there are around 80 tropical cyclones per year around the planet, and we can’t explain why that’s the number.Why isn’t it 8?Or 800?We don’t know.Without such an understanding, we can’t really trust climate models’ counterfactual world for this.

But this doesn’t mean that we know nothing about tropical cyclones.There are strong physical arguments that tropical cyclones will get more intense (higher wind speeds) and rainier as the climate warms, which will cause more damage.As an example, severalgroupsanalyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by ~20%.The increase in wind speed means that we expect the fraction of tropical cyclones reaching the major storm category (cat 3-5) will increase as the climate warms, in general agreement with our observational record.

Once you have a physical mechanism, the other factors that determine confidence are things like:

• How good is the observational record?For some things, like temperature, we have good observations going back to the 19th century.For others, like tropical cyclones, good observations are only available during the satellite era, i.e., since the 1970s.With a shorter dataset, your confidence in any attribution study will be lower.

• How good are climate models at simulating the weather phenomenon?Most attribution studies require climate models to generate the various counterfactual worlds (the world without climate change).Climate models do a really good job with temperature, which is a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon.But they do a much poorer job with precipitation, which is a very small-scale process that models struggle with.

• How many independent studies have confirmed an attribution statement?In science, the gold standard for a rigorous conclusion is that it has been multiply replicated by independent scientific groups.While any individual study might be flawed, the odds of a major error go down significantly if several groups have independently reached the same conclusion.

It is also worth noting that there may be times when detection and attribution studies fail but extreme event attribution studies can still identify a contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, high quality time series of some extreme events (e.g., tropical cyclones) may go back only a few decades, which may be too short for confident detection and attribution. Extreme event attribution approaches, which do not rely on long time series of observations, are nevertheless able to conclude that climate change is making specific hurricanes stronger.

Conclusion

The science of extreme event attribution has transformed our ability to discuss the impacts of climate change. We can now make statements about how climate change affected the likelihood and intensity of individual events as well as the trends in extreme events. This helps demonstrate that climate change is indeed increasing the ‘hazard’ component of climate risk.

As the science of extreme event attribution has developed, it has increasingly moved into the legal and public policy arenas. Fossil fuel interests are terrified that someone will use extreme event attribution science to sue them for their contribution to a natural disaster, or that policymakers will use extreme event attribution science to justify policies to restrict fossil-fuel use.

Because of this, the legitimacy of extreme event attribution is frequently contested by fossil-fuel interests. So don’t be surprised if you hear a lot of misinformation about extreme event attribution in the future.And don’t think that, just because people are criticizing these studies, that criticism is legitimate.

Note that the techniques described in this chapter deal with the effects of climate change on hazards.A new subfield, extreme event impact attribution connects climate change to the actual impacts (e.g., number of houses burned down in a wildfire, dollars of flood damage).This is an emerging area of research, and I expect that this is something we’re going to hear a lot more about in the future.

This is a draft of a section of my climate risk textbook (slightly edited & reformatted to make it appropriate for Substack). I’d very much like to identify errors now, so if you see any, please let me know in the comments.

1 Different types of drought respond differently to climate change. In this case, we are talking about agricultural and ecological droughts.

A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 28, 2026 thru Sat, July 4, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• The scientist and his family tracking melting glaciers for nearly half a century PBS NewsHour, Ben Tracy, June 22, 2026.
• Europe’s record heatwave: does the continent have a new climate? Nature asks researchers whether scorching summers are the new norm for London, Paris and Berlin. Nature, Edward Chen, June 26, 2026.
• How climate change gets under the skin Researchers unearth clues about how repeat, overlapping climate stressors, from flood-related mold to warming water temperatures to higher pollen counts, affect everyone Grist, Zoya Teirstein, Jun 28, 2026.
• Climate change to blame for intensity of Europe heat wave: Scientists Phys.org, Nick Perry, Jun 28, 2026.
• Could this be Australia`s warmest winter ever? The seasons underway in Australia exemplify a worldwide trend of unseasonably high temperatures, including the early summer heatwave in western Europe. The Conversation, Milton Speer, University of Technology Sydney, Lance M Leslie, University of Technology Sydney, Jun 29, 2026.
• Loading the Heat Dice Without human influence, the recent European heatwave would have been more than 3°C cooler. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Jun 30, 2026.
• How climate change influences extreme weather How science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground. The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jun 30, 2026.
• The world`s oceans are the hottest on record for June - and El Niño is set to turn up the heat even more Average sea surface temperature is just under 21°C across the world’s tropical and temperate oceans, while before widespread industrialisation in 1870 the temperature was about 19.6°C. The Conversation, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Alistair Hobday, Jul 02, 2026.
• Tour de France braced for historic stage cancellations amid 44C European heatwave The 2026 Tour de France, which starts in Barcelona on Saturday, is steeling itself for climate change disruption with another extreme heatwave predicted to return to Europe in the coming days which could lead to stages being cancelled. The Guardian, Jeremy Whittle in Barcelona, Jul 02, 2026.
• Without Climate Change, U.S. Heat Wave Called `Virtually Impossible` Scientists have said the conditions are the result of a climate that is “fundamentally different” from the time before fossil fuel use started rapidly warming the world. NYT, Raymond Zhong, Jul 03, 2026.
• Sydney records hottest June since 1859 as expert warns new high a `signature` of global warming Prof Andy Pitman, a Sydney-based climate scientist, expressed a “complete lack of surprise” at the new record. The Guardian, Ima Caldwell, Jul 04, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• Why is America switching off its climate warning system? "Just have a Think" on Youtube, Dave Borlace, June 28, 2026.
• Can climate shocks change how people feel about paying taxes? Researchers further confirm that visibly effective climate adaptation and mitigation efforts improve public willingness to pay for better circumstances. The Conversation, Enrico Nichelatti, Postdoctoral researcher, University of Luxembourg, Abrams Tagem, Tax Research Specialist, Jun 29, 2026.
• New Florida law bans local net-zero emissions policies Gov. Ron DeSantis characterized the clean energy goals the law bans as “radical climate policies,” although experts say the law will not necessarily upend the plans. Inside Climate News, Amy Green, Jun 30, 2026.
• Q&A: How will the World Bank`s abandoned finance goal affect climate action? The World Bank has abandoned a target for 45% of the funding it gives developing countries to be “climate finance”, following months of pressure from the Trump administration in the US. Carbon Brief, Josh Gabbatiss, Jul 03, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (4 articles)

• `A sad inevitability`: after decades of climate warnings, why is Europe so unprepared for rising heat? Scorching summer of 2003 triggered first efforts to deal with the problem but heatwaves still have devastating impact The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Jun 27, 2026.
• Unbearable Heat for Hundreds of Millions The Global South, in particular, is suffering from the consequences of global heating. A new study quantifies heat stress in India by projecting it during the critical seasons. Eos, Thomas Stocker, Jun 29, 2026.
• How extreme heat is exposing extreme inequality The climate crisis and worsening disparity could be responsible for more than 100,000 deaths a year in Europe, which should set off alarm bells for policymakers The Guardian, Ashifa Kassam, Jul 01, 2026.
• Climate change will raise the risk of severe heatwaves. NZ homes aren`t ready The Conversation, Baxter Kamana-Williams, J. Geoffrey Chase, Rebecca Peer, Jul 02, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• Another Trump Administration Payment to Stop Offshore Wind Farm With the fourth such deal struck by the administration to get companies to forfeit their offshore wind leases, the public is still left wondering why. NYT, Maxine Joselow, Jun 29, 2026.
• `But we`re just 1% of emissions`: do smaller countries` climate efforts matter? Past and present leaders of wealthy nations such as UK and Germany have argued their actions are insignificant The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Jun 30, 2026.
• World gets glimpse of its climate future Political risk analyst Kyle Volpi Hiebert compares how we're doing with energy modernization vs. the impact on human civilization of our continued employment of outmoded and dangerious fossil fuels. Brandon Sun, By Kyle Volpi Hiebert, Jul 04, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (3 articles)

• Is Climate Change Ramping Up El Niño Risks? ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy, June 27, 2026.
• Editorial: It’s time to step up and have your say for science Your comments on a dangerous rule putting politicals in charge of science can matter Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jul 2, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #27 2026 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of climate research, highlighting open access reports that we can all read. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jul 02, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

• A few reasons to feel hopeful about the climate in 2026 Environment, The Conversation UK, Will de Freitas, Jan 8, 2026.
• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 21, 2026 thru Sat, June 27, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jun 28, 2026.
• Amid USFS Upheaval, Utah and Colorado Are Burning Eos, Emily Gardner, Jul 02, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Fact brief - Are injuries from wind turbines common? No - Wind turbine collapses or blade failures are extremely uncommon, and wind power causes far fewer deaths per unit of electricity than fossil fuels. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, June 30, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Warming climate has lengthened global intense tropical cyclone seasons, Liu et al., Nature Communication

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which pose serious threats to human life and property, often occur within a short period of time each year, known as the intense TC season. Changes in the lengths of intense TC seasons under climate change are critical scientific and socioeconomic issues. While trends in overall TC seasons have been widely studied, the response of intense TC seasons to climate change remains underexplored. Here, we show that intense TC seasons have been lengthening globally since 1980, with statistically significant increasing trends ranging from 9.9–13.8 days/decade across all basins, equivalent to 7.4–21.9% increase in intense TC season lengths per decade. This is primarily due to the enhancing probability of off-season TCs experiencing rapid intensification, which is partly driven by oceanic warming. Meanwhile, changes in background atmospheric circulation play a role in the complexity of intense TC seasonality change. As a result, off-season TCs are more likely to develop into intense TCs. The findings in this study indicate an increasing exposure of human societies to intense TC risks outside historical seasonal norms. This suggests the urgent need for preparation and mitigation measures for the potential risks of intense TCs under future climate change.

Abrupt permafrost thaw drives exceptional carbon release across the Tibetan Plateau, Jia et al., Nature Communications

Climate warming is accelerating abrupt permafrost thaw, driving substantial carbon emissions. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) represent the most severe instance of abrupt permafrost thaw, yet their carbon emissions remain poorly quantified due to limited observations. Here, by synthesizing 4728 RTS incidents and 1862 in-situ CO2 and CH4 measurements from RTS-affected zones across the Tibetan Plateau, we estimate that the area of RTS susceptibility will expand by 17–19% by 2100 relative to 2022, driven primarily by precipitation changes. Compared to control areas, the ecosystem respiration rate in collapsed areas decreases by 14.4%, while CH4 release rate increases by 20.0%. The combined CO2 and CH4 release associated with RTS expansion increased 1.1-fold between 2016 and 2022. Under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenario, carbon emissions from RTS-susceptible areas are projected to surge 2.7-fold by 2100. These findings highlight that abrupt thaw strengthens permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude regions, underscoring the urgent need for targeted permafrost protection strategies to achieve carbon neutrality goals.

Influence of seismic energy dissipation technology on carbon emission of building construction, Zhang et al., Scientific Reports

This study aims to simultaneously enhance structural safety and reduce carbon emissions using the seismic energy dissipation technology. Eight reinforced concrete frame structures with varying numbers of floors are selected as case studies in accordance with the Chinese design code. By incorporating additional energy dissipation devices, the required dimensions of structural components in structures with damper (SWD) are reduced compared with structures without damper (SWOD), thereby lowering carbon emissions and improving seismic performance. Both SWOD and SWD systems are designed for each of the eight reinforced concrete frame structures for comparative analysis. Structural component dimensions are calculated using SAUSG software, and key performance indicators, including the natural period and inter-story drift ratio, are analyzed to verify compliance with code-specified safety requirements. Engineering quantities and life-cycle energy consumption are quantified, including the production and transportation of materials, as well as construction and dismantling stages. The results indicate that SWDs reduce material and energy consumption, with average carbon emissions 17.4% lower than those of SWODs. This study provides a novel perspective on carbon emission reduction during the design phase and offers an effective technical pathway for the coordinated development of low-carbon buildings and seismic resilience.

Ideological drivers of climate obstruction and delay: political parties and public opinion in Spain, Ochoa et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences

This study contributes to the growing body of international research examining how political actors strategically resist or slow down climate action despite scientific consensus. It combines a cross-sectional public opinion survey with a systematic analysis of political party manifestos. The study identifies clear ideological differences between parties and their supporters in regard to how climate change is framed and addressed. While most respondents acknowledge anthropogenic climate change and express support for stronger government action, significant segments resist lifestyle changes and consider resource extraction to be unavoidable. Left-leaning voters tend to emphasize collective responsibility and call for stronger public intervention. In contrast, conservative and far-right voters are more likely to downplay human causation, prioritize economic growth, and frame climate disruption as being driven by natural forces. Party programs across the political spectrum indeed mirror these tensions by promoting incremental rather than transformative measures. The Far-right nationalist narratives of sovereignty and securitization further serve to delegitimize mitigation efforts. The Old and New Right parties try to avoid regulations and thus oppose decisive government intervention in environmental matters. The findings show that political polarization plays a central role in shaping attitudes towards climate policy in Spain, in line with broader European trends whereby far-right parties promote climate delay narratives. The research also identifies that climate delay is a structural phenomenon, rooted in the intersection of ideologies such as capitalism, nationalism, and patriarchy, rather than a purely partisan one.

Negative partisanship, positive partisanship, and variation in climate policy attitudes on the political right, Huddart et al., PNAS Nexus

Conservatives are more likely than liberals to oppose climate policies, resulting in political polarization over climate change. Most research treats this gap as if it reflects two cohesive blocs on opposite sides of an issue. Drawing on original survey data from a probability sample of Canadians (n = 2,503), we find that while liberals are highly uniform in their orientation toward climate policies, conservatives are far more heterogeneous. Further analyses reveal conservatives' policy positions strongly correlate with their partisan affect—both the extent to which they dislike opposing liberals (negative partisanship) and the extent to which they like fellow conservatives (positive partisanship). These findings highlight the importance of considering variation within, and not just between, political sides. The results additionally suggest that reducing hostility toward the other side (particularly among conservatives) may facilitate cross-ideological climate coalitions.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Global trends in climate change litigation: 2026 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, Global School of Sustainability, London School of Economics

The authors identify the following key trends for the period January to December 2025: in 2025, 249 new climate cases were filed, bringing the total since 1986 to more than 3,600 cases. Over three quarters of these cases have been filed since 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. Cases have been filed across 62 countries, up from just 17 countries a decade ago. In 2025, cases were newly filed in Grenada, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Singapore and Zambia. • The United States remains the jurisdiction with the highest number of cases: 151 new cases were recorded in 2025, bringing the total to 2,078.

Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades, Keeping et al., World Weather Attribution

Just weeks after a severe heatwave that broke all-time May records, Europe is experiencing another major heatwave that is breaking June and annual records. This is particularly remarkable given that June is not historically the hottest month in Western Europe. The authors assessed to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in Western Europe. The analysis focuses on the 3 hottest days and nights over the most affected area and additional analysis of the 19 capitals of the affected countries. This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed. This summer shows that at 1.4°C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope. The analysis shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago. 120 articles in 58 journals by 790 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

AMOC response to historical freshwater increase, Devilliers et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02028-8

Barents-Kara Sea Ice Variability Drives Stronger Tropospheric Anomalies Over East Asia After 2000 Due To Weakened Stratospheric Polar Vortex, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046058

Declining tropical sea surface temperature variability under post-2050s greenhouse warming, Wang & Santoso, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02684-z

Distinguishing the Direct Radiative, Surface Warming, and Ozone Mediated Contributions to the Acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation under Abrupt CO2 Forcing, Menzel et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0515.1

Reply to: AMOC response to historical freshwater increase, Pontes & Menviel, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02029-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temporal Variability of Ventilation in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 10.1029/2023jc020608 6 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Marine Heatwaves Have Increased in Frequency, Duration, and Depth Across Southeast Asia, Gulakaram et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023614

Tropical origins of the recent trends in Northern Hemisphere wintertime jet streams, Rivière et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74980-3

Warming climate has lengthened global intense tropical cyclone seasons, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74651-3

Warming Tropical Western Pacific Fuels More Frequent Winter Surface Wind Extremes over the South China Sea, Shi et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0047.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02058-3 77 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A Coordinated Framework for Global Climate Reanalyses, Cobb et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0056.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Independent Quality Assessment of Essential Climate Variables: Lessons Learned from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-21-0109.1 18 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing Earth's Energy Imbalance Trend in the Early 21st Century in Two High-Resolution Coupled Models, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121277

Past Global Warming Influence on Intense Typhoons Reaching Southern China During El Niño and La Niña Using a Variable Resolution Global Model, Zheng et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl2.70052

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8 35 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States in Gridded Analyses and a Convection-Permitting Model Simulation, Schumacher & Hill, Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0212.1

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices, Beadling et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-25-0079.1

Opinion: status, plans and needs of Southern Ocean modelling, Martin et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1429-2026

Unlocking Urban Climate Change Analysis in Global Kilometer-Scale Climate Simulations, Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120583

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024 34 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A Sea Ice Entrapment Event in the Southern Chukchi Sea: Analysis and Prediction, Moore et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121181

Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier, Bradley et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:

Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49269-y 33 cites.

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Sea level & climate change
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Stakeholder Driven Sensor Deployments to Characterize Chronic Coastal Flooding in Key West Florida, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef003631 3 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Volcanic eruptions caused weakening AMOC during the preindustrial past millennium, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74873-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Past Earth warmed by tidal resonance-induced organization of clouds under a shorter day, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01469-3 3 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A framework for climate-resilient forest planning and restoration: advances linking species distribution modelling, genetic adaptation and future climate scenarios, Chacón-Moreno et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1735354

Climate Change Has Impacted Tree Growth in Temperate and Boreal Forests Since the Beginning of the 21st Century, a Meta-Analysis Tells Us, Sergeant et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70239

Climate change is causing more local extinction of temperate species than tropical species, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02671-4

Climate impacts on the multidiversity–multifunctionality relationship change with habitat type, Antiqueira et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0392

Climate-Driven Range Dynamics of the Chinese Giant Salamander: Past, Present, and Future Projections From Ensemble Species Distribution Models, Zhao et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73474

Concepts and Methods for Identifying Species Niche Edges, Potentially Truncated Edges, and Climate Risks and Opportunities, Schlenker & Williams, Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.70241

Distinguishing leaf scorching from senescence under climate extremes, Bergström et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02682-1

Historical Imprints and Future Shifts: Evolutionary Biogeography of Atlantic Reef Fishes Under Climate Change, Cord et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70259

Kelp forests modulate fish community dynamics and responses to ocean warming, Reis et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70383

Mass mortality of avian migrants in New Mexico, USA, that coincided with an extreme weather event, Osterhaus et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1763394

Natural microcosms are bellwether model systems in ecology and evolutionary biology especially under climate change, Pincebourde & Borges, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0378

Over three-quarters of earthworm species lack protection in China, a crisis exacerbated by climate change, Zhou et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08554

Prioritizing Conservation of Trailing-Edge Populations for Future Climate-Resilient Forests, Boyce et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70971

Relative importance of traits, climate, and threats to extinction risk in salamanders, Wang et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70281

Resource declines shape phenological and morphological responses to climate change, Probst et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2607714123

Rising tree mortality in France is associated with distinct seasonal climate anomalies, Schneider et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74613-9

Sea of Okhotsk warming impacts adult return abundance of southwestern marginal Chum salmon populations over four decades, Kim et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-58635-3

Shifting growth–climate limitations in Canadian forests under recent climate change, Sang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03713-7

Small ecosystems, big insights: tank bromeliads as model systems to investigate human-induced global changes, Antiqueira & Romero, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0393

Topography constrains the climatic response of treeline migration in Taiwan's subalpine forests, Chen et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08500

Unique fingerprint of marine ectotherm body size change during hyperthermal crises, Nätscher et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2505564123

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
High temperatures reduce growth, infection, and transmission of a naturally occurring fungal plant pathogen, Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.4373 28 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Abrupt permafrost thaw drives exceptional carbon release across the Tibetan Plateau, Jia et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74850-y

Blue carbon storage in surface sediments of seagrasses and mangroves for Mauritian inventories, Santos et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58343-y

Carbon dioxide removals by tropical moist forests offset most land-use emissions across 18 Afrotropical countries, Verbiest et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03710-w

China's growing halogenated gas emissions and banks over 1980-2024: Impacts on ozone, climate, and trifluoroacetic acid, Bai et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.009

Comment on Ju et al. (2025): Global Declines in Mangrove Area and Carbon Stock From 1985 to 2020, Bunting et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118093

Comment on “Tracking Ethane From Space Over a Large US Oil and Gas Region” by Francoeur et al., Millet et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119868

Concerns on the human-induced biospheric carbon sink in the Taklamakan Desert, Xu, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2612132123

Global Peatland Carbon Pool Sizes: Current Estimates, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions, Ren et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70882

Heterotrophic bacteria in the dark ocean are major contributors to CO2 fixation, [authors did not process], Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02014-0

Impacts of bed topography resolution on sea-level rise projections from coupled subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics for Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, Ehrenfeucht & Dow, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0545

Land Carbon Sink Distribution in Northern Eurasia Is Driven by Climate Change, Melnikova et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008971

Misattributed biospheric carbon sink to the Three-North Program in the Taklamakan Desert may lead to an impractical policy: A commentary, Gao et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2607916123

Multi-centennial response of marine carbon pumps to global warming, Khatiwala et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02686-x

Multidecadal preindustrial methane variability can be explained by noise in the source–sink imbalance, Mei et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2601235123

OzRiCa: an Australian riverine carbon database of concentrations, gas fluxes and isotopes, Ulloa-Cedamanos et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-2723-2026

Rapid changes in global river particulate organic carbon flux, et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02034-w

Reply to Comment by Bunting et al. on “Global Declines in Mangrove Area and Carbon-Stock From 1985 to 2020”, Ju et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121242

Reply to Comment by Millet et al. on “Tracking Ethane From Space Over a Large US Oil and Gas Region”, Francoeur et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122208

Reply to Gao et al. and Xu: Greening the Taklamakan: Human efforts to convert desert into a carbon sink, Noor et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2609809123

Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming, Ma et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74772-9

Thawing Siberian permafrost stabilizes organic carbon from recent plant litter inputs, Knoblauch et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3615-2026

Tidal Inundation Decreases Carbon Dioxide Exchange in an Irish Atlantic Saltmarsh, Jessen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009040

Top-down benchmark of US methane inventories reveals regional discrepancies in activity-based estimates, Worden et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-8855-2026

Warming dominates over circulation slowdown in reducing marine carbon storage under high-mitigation scenarios, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02687-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Human degradation of tropical moist forests is greater than previously estimated, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-024-07629-0 123 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Applying the Bow Tie Method to Evaluate Emerging Risk: The Case of Carbon Capture and Water Stress, Weisner et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70296

Biotechnological innovations in the realm of carbon capture, storage and utilization, Jofre et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1805906

Rethinking solvent regeneration pathways for maritime carbon capture, Shi et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74909-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Organic blue carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal wetlands: Processes and influencing factors, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104853 59 cites.

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Decarbonization

A risk-informed multicriteria framework for ocean current energy site selection for Small Island Developing States, Oladejo et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-56952-1

Batteries versus fuel cells for decarbonizing medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across applications, Woody et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02095-6

Decoupling development from concrete, Kane, Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01883-y

Hyperbranched dielectric polymer networks exhibiting giant energy storage density at 250 °C, Ran et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74830-2

Influence of seismic energy dissipation technology on carbon emission of building construction, Zhang et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-59044-2

Onshore Wind Energy Development Causes Localized but Lasting Shifts in Plant Community Composition and Function, Seifert et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73916

The PAINT database for operational concentrating solar power plant data following FAIR data principles, Phipps et al., KITopen Open Access 10.5445/ir/1000194409

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Understanding the large role of long-distance travel in carbon emissions from passenger travel, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01561-3 39 cites.

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Geoengineering climate
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Public perceptions on solar geoengineering from focus groups in 22 countries, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01518-0 19 cites.

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Black carbon
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Long-Term Trend in Black Carbon Mass Concentration Over Central Indo-Gangetic Plain Location: Understanding the Implied Change in Radiative Forcing, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd040754 15 cites.

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Aerosols

Accelerated European Summer Warming Driven by Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to Aerosol Forcing, Roldán-Gómez et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122424

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Sensitivity of cloud microphysics to aerosol is highly associated with cloud water content: Implications for indirect radiative forcing, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107552 14 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A climate action intervention boosts key psychological drivers, increasing climate advocacy, sustainable eating and supporting education behaviours, Castiglione et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access pdf 10.1098/rsos.260140

Climate change knowledge, attitude, risk perception, and health adaptation behavior in an urban megacity, Sakib et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000901

Climate-Related Disasters, Inequality, and Tax Morale in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nichelatti & Tagem, The Journal of Development Studies Open Access pdf 10.1080/00220388.2026.2658564

Fossil fuel phaseout, renewable energy, and just transition discourse at COP26 and COP28: A discourse network analysis of Instagram posts, Shakespear et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104724

Fossil fuel reliance and public support for climate change mitigation: evidence from 105 countries, Klebl et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2691468

Ideological drivers of climate obstruction and delay: political parties and public opinion in Spain, Ochoa et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-026-01127-7

Media Portrayals of Net Zero: Stakeholders’ Perspectives and Climate Solutions Framing, Rhodes et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2692085

Negative partisanship, positive partisanship, and variation in climate policy attitudes on the political right, Huddart et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag094

Place, Climate Change and the Experience of Loss, Biasio & Velasco, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70056

Public support for climate action is underestimated in the German political domain, Sevincer et al., PubData Open Access 10.48548/pubdata-3925

Responsibility, risk and climate policy support, Im, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2691099

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate beliefs, climate technologies and transformation pathways: Contextualizing public perceptions in 22 countries, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102880 33 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Adoption of climate smart agriculture for enhancing socio-ecological resilience: a systematic review of evidence from Punjab, Pakistan, Ullah et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1853469

Climate change and oil palm: impacts and adaptation strategies for resilient production, Ramachandrudu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1862586

Environmental claims, climate promises, and ‘greenwashing’ by meat and dairy companies, Bach et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000773

Genetic technologies to enhance crop nutritional value under climate change, Straeten et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10593-6

Increased Likelihood and Intensification of Global Agricultural Droughts Under Compound Meteorological Droughts and Hot Extremes, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045918

Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change, Sun et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7

Leveraging farmers’ social networks to improve co-production and dissemination of climate information services in SSA: a systematic review, Appiah et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2689985

Promoting climate resilience through learning-based behavioural change: Insights from an agent-based model of a coastal farming community in Guangxi, China, Nie et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104375

Spatially explicit temperature optima improve climate impact assessment of global crop productivity, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74564-1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Soil carbon maintained by perennial grasslands over 30 years but lost in field crop systems in a temperate Mollisol, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01500-w 28 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Impacts of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Compound Droughts on the Precipitation–Runoff Relationship Across Timescales, An et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006795

Increasing global threat of outburst floods from overlooked small alpine lakes, Ahmed et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01873-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Non-stationary low flow frequency analysis under climate change, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-024-05081-8 10 cites.

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Climate change economics

Comprehensive national climate damage assessments framework applied to the UK, Rising et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02665-2

Improving economic impact assessment of climate change with machine learning, Orlov & Sillmann, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73956-7

Multi-channel analysis suggests the UK faces large climate-related losses, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02664-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation finance, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48820-1 41 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon emission trading scheme, induced technological change, and green innovation: Evidence from listed companies in China, Tang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115335

From policy to reality: Forecasting Spain's vehicle fleet trajectory toward 2030 climate targets, Díaz-Díaz et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115298

Malleable Preferences and the Normative Desirability of Demand-Side Solutions to Climate Change, Berger & Creutzig, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70079

Planning, policy, and accountability: Managing the renewable energy transition for sustainable development in Nigeria, Adedokun, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104706

The impact of the UK's withdrawal from the EU ETS on firms' carbon emissions: evidence from the UK ETS, Chiappari et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2691436

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Diversifying heat sources in China’s urban district heating systems will reduce risk of carbon lock-in, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01560-4 51 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Addressing barriers in climate action planning: an analysis based on six Italian territories, Ravazzoli et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1828407

Assessing adaptive capacity to multi-hazard climate health risks in China's provinces and core cities, Hong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102890

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages, Manos et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008578

Severe droughts in Senegal are linked to increased family reunification at migration destinations in Europe, Savas, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74655-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The challenge of closing the climate adaptation gap for water supply utilities, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01272-3 22 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing adaptive capacity to multi-hazard climate health risks in China's provinces and core cities, Hong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102890

Climate change knowledge, attitude, risk perception, and health adaptation behavior in an urban megacity, Sakib et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000901

Emerging heat resilience demands among tourist destinations for building responsible tourism: An empirical investigation in 291 A-level scenic spots in Chongqing, China, Mao et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102877

Urban compound humid-heat exposure: Health risks, mitigation challenges, and pathways toward integrated adaptation, Qian et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102881

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temperature-related neonatal deaths attributable to climate change in 29 low- and middle-income countries, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49890-x 44 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human culture
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing potential impacts of climate change on China’s ski season length: a data-constrained approach, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-024-05075-6 3 cites.

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Other

Accelerating Regime Restructuring of Ozone Sensitivity From VOC-Limited to Transitional With Heatwave Intensification, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046849

Revisiting the global budget of atmospheric glyoxal: updates on terrestrial and marine precursor emissions, chemistry, and impacts on atmospheric oxidation capacity, Zhang et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-5123-2026

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Causes Southern Ocean Surface Cooling, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120200

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing of the county-level synergy between CO2 emissions and PM2.5 pollution in Shandong Province, China, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-024-05861-9 2 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Early-warning systems unfit for compound disasters, Alcântara & Mantovani, Discover Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s44475-026-00052-1

US funding uncertainties threaten to sink key global oceanography projects, Witze, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02028-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Achieving the Kunming–Montreal global biodiversity targets for blue carbon ecosystems, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00566-6 60 cites.

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Book reviews

Capitalism at the limit: a political ecology of a world in crisis, Nyberg, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2696665

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Generator Interconnection Interim Progress Report. Customer Reviews of the Seven U.S. Regional Transmission System Operators, Campbell et al., Advanced Energy United

Generator interconnection – the grid-connection process for large-scale projects like solar, wind, and energy storage – continues to be one of the biggest barriers for project developers and is preventing energy supply from keeping up with skyrocketing energy demand. While grid operators have made meaningful strides in reducing interconnection queue backlogs and improving planning processes, significant challenges remain. The authors evaluate how each grid operators is progressing since an initial 2024 assessment at fixing these bottlenecks, and outlines policy solutions to speed connection to the transmission grid. Grid operators have, with varying levels of success, cleared the backlog of projects while also preparing and implementing process changes for future review cycles. However, in many places, reforms have been slow, delays have been common, project withdrawal rates remain high, post-interconnection delays are both persistent and opaque, and fast-track workarounds have primarily benefitted costly thermal-generation projects. Project developers (interconnection customers) still generally face uncertainty with respect to both the cost and time to connect to the grid.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Lake Chad, Iversen et al., Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

The ongoing insecurity in the Lake Chad region—which intersects Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria—cannot be understood in isolation from climate and environmental change. Climate change-related stressors—such as increasingly variable precipitation and drought—contribute to existing tension and conflict between different communities by exacerbating scarcity of natural resources, including land, water and food. Such pressures amplify the tensions between local community members, refugees and internally displaced people and between livelihood groups such as arable farmers, fishers and pastoralists. Through its destabilizing effects on livelihoods, climate change can further increase vulnerability to recruitment by violent extremist organizations, such as Boko Haram and Islamic State–West Africa Province and other unidentified armed groups and bandit networks, that operate throughout the region.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, US. Energy Information Administration

Electricity generation. Above-average temperatures this summer contribute to a 3% increase in forecast U.S. electricity generation compared with the summer of 2025. This growth is met by increased generation from renewable fuel sources, with solar generation increasing by 19% and wind generation increasing by 10%. Generation from coal is forecast to decrease by 2%. Natural gas generates about the same amount of electricity it did last summer

Delivering Positive Energy, Energy Transition Institute, Robert Gordon University

The authors prepared the report to support decision and policy makers in shaping a coherent and pragmatic pathway for the North East of Scotland’s energy future. Drawing on the analytical framework and scenarios established in Robert Gordon University’s Striking the Balance report (2025), this regional assessment reflects the specific industrial strengths, workforce capabilities and economic dependencies of the North East. It has been developed in collaboration with, and part-funded by, Scottish Enterprise, ensuring both analytical rigor and alignment with regional economic priorities.

Integrated Resource Plan 2026 (Preliminary Final), Tennessee Valley Authority

TVA’s 2026 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and associated programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) evaluate the long-term demand for power in the TVA region, the resource options available for meeting that demand, and the potential economic, operating, and environmental impacts of these options. Consideration of stakeholder input is integral to TVA’s IRP process. The IRP will provide strategic direction for meeting the region’s energy needs between now and 2050, establishing a strong planning foundation and informing TVA’s next long-range financial plan.

The Price of 5 A Day?, Will Stronge and Luiz Garcia, The Autonomy Institute

Climate change is on course to make fresh fruit and vegetables unaffordable for many across the next two decades as it disrupts the production of UK’s imported and domestic produce. Heat waves are projected to add around 11% to the price of the UK’s top twenty fruit and vegetables by 2035 and around 68% by 2050 under a high emissions scenario, on top of normal inflation. Imported tropical fruit such as melons, oranges, bananas, easy peelers and grapes will rise 12% to 14% by 2035 and 80% to 93% by 2050 on these climate grounds alone. Compounded with estimated normal inflation, total average shelf prices of the overall basket of fruit and veg will reach upwards of 170% above today’s level by 2050. This means that climate-flation will be contributing 40% of total inflation across the basket of basic goods by 2035 and over 60% of it by 2050. Climate change will have gone from a junior contributor to the dominant driver of shelf-price inflation on fresh produce inside the working lifetime of someone in their thirties today. It is essential to note that the authors only included the effects of heat waves on the cost of food in the UK and uses a standard baseline for CPI inflation. They do not factor in other climate-related effects on food production, such as flooding as well as second order effects, e.g. infrastructure degradation, soil erosion, water quality and so on. Nor are geopolitical effects on inflation included which are often intertwined with climate and resource factors.

Protecting BC workers in a warming climate: Recommendations for WorkSafeBC, Susanna Klassen and Anelyse Weiler, BC Policy Solutions and the Worker Solidarity Network

British Columbia's current heat exposure regulations are outdated and insufficient to protect workers from the risks of extreme heat. Implement a straightforward trigger temperature approach. Prioritize worker involvement in developing regulations. Update protocols to reflect current research, especially for acclimatization, shade, drinking water access, rest breaks without pay disruption, sanitation and worker training. Protect workers from employer retaliation. Strengthen enforcement systems. Develop enforcement partnerships with worker groups. Enforce regulations proactively. ‘Name and shame’ bad bosses. Support improvements and coordination beyond Occupational, Health and Safety (OHS) regulation.

National Survey on Energy and the Environment, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

In 2025 a record number of Americans indicated that there is solid evidence of increasing temperatures on Earth, with 77% of individuals maintaining this opinion in the most recent wave of the National Survey on Energy and the Environment (NSEE). The 77% level is the highest mark recorded since the NSEE was initiated in 2008. The long-term partisan divides on the existence of evidence of climate change were once again present in 2025 with 94% of Democrats indicating that there is solid evidence of rising temperatures on the planet compared to 52% of Republicans and 80% of Americans unaffiliated with a political party. Among the majority of Americans that believe there is solid evidence of rising temperatures on Earth, most attribute the change to human activity (56%) or a combination of human activity and natural patterns (22%). Over 6 in 10 Americans agree that they have personally experienced the effects of climate change, with partisan affiliation playing a major role in this perception. While 8 out of 10 Democrats report experiencing the effects of climate change, only one third of Republicans stated that they had felt such effects. As the federal government reversed many of its previous efforts to reduce climate change in 2025, a solid majority (59%) of Americans indicated that the federal government has a great deal of responsibility to reduce global warming. About 2 out of 3 Americans agree that if the federal government fails to address climate change it is their state’s responsibility to address the problem.

How Can the World Bank Integrate Climate Action and Disability Inclusion in Transport?, Bank Information Center

Cases from Colombia and Ghana illustrate the disconnect between climate action and disability inclusion, showing how accessibility remains overlooked in the design of climate resilient and low-carbon transport systems. If the World Bank continues to treat disability inclusion and climate action as two separate issues, it risks creating or reinforcing new mobility barriers for persons with disabilities while missing opportunities to expand accessible mass transit systems that support transport decarbonization. The findings reinforce that achieving Paris-aligned transport systems requires more than reducing emissions; it also requires prioritizing transport systems that are inclusive and accessible for all.

Global trends in climate change litigation: 2026 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, Global School of Sustainability, London School of Economics

The authors identify the following key trends for the period January to December 2025: in 2025, 249 new climate cases were filed, bringing the total since 1986 to more than 3,600 cases. Over three quarters of these cases have been filed since 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. Cases have been filed across 62 countries, up from just 17 countries a decade ago. In 2025, cases were newly filed in Grenada, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Singapore and Zambia. • The United States remains the jurisdiction with the highest number of cases: 151 new cases were recorded in 2025, bringing the total to 2,078.

World Risk Poll Report 2026, Gallup, Lloyd’s Register Foundation

The poll is the first and only global, nationally representative study of worry about, and harm from, the risks people face to their safety. It draws on more than 143,000 interviews conducted across 140 countries and territories throughout 2025, many of them places with little or no official data on safety and risk. The authors offer a rare view of how people experience and perceive the risks in their lives, from the everyday hazards facing millions, such as unsafe food and water or danger on the roads, to the generational and existential risk of climate change. The authors turn to that last risk in depth. Climate change is the only threat the poll frames as generational, asking people to weigh it not as it stands today but over the next 20 years. Alongside the long-running measure of personal concern, the 2025 edition introduces a new question on what people believe most others in their country think.

Climate Change and Culture: Reimagining an inclusive, sustainable and creative future, Mariana Mazzucato, University College of London Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose

Climate change is driving systems toward tipping points that require urgent action, and the cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of action. Yet the case cannot be made in the language of economics alone. Technocratic solutions cannot make a different future feel possible, desirable, or worth its cost. That is what arts and culture can do. From visual arts to music and design, they can become the social infrastructure of a just transition: how societies imagine alternative futures, build the legitimacy to pursue them, and hold together as change happens. Yet culture is still treated as peripheral to the economy: a cost to be cut rather than a precondition for transformation. The author sets out four shifts that place culture at the center of a new economy: shaping a new direction for economic growth that is inclusive, creative and sustainable; building legitimacy from the bottom up, with communities shaping climate policy through their lived experience; recognizing cultural institutions and coalitions as essential infrastructure, from national bodies to community spaces; and funding culture as investment, not expenditure, with the “creative bureaucracies” to co-create what comes next

Renewables save $750 million in electricity subsidies in Türkiye, Ça?lar Çeliköz, Ember

Record renewable generation in the first five months of 2026 drove wholesale electricity prices to historic lows in Türkiye. The decline in wholesale prices reduced the gap between market prices and the residential tariff, lowering the level of government support required for household electricity bills. As a result, the government saved $746 million in electricity subsidies during the first five months of 2026. In the first five months of 2026, electricity generation from renewable sources increased by 32% year-on-year to 87 TWh, the highest level on record. As a result, renewables accounted for 61% of total electricity generation, marking the highest share recorded in the past 26 years. In May 2026, wholesale electricity prices fell to their lowest level since the market was established in 2011. The share of renewables, which have significantly lower generation costs than fossil fuels, rose by 17 percentage points compared to May 2025 to reach 73%, helping drive wholesale electricity prices down.

Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades, Keeping et al., World Weather Attribution

Just weeks after a severe heatwave that broke all-time May records, Europe is experiencing another major heatwave that is breaking June and annual records. This is particularly remarkable given that June is not historically the hottest month in Western Europe. The authors assessed to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in Western Europe. The analysis focuses on the 3 hottest days and nights over the most affected area and additional analysis of the 19 capitals of the affected countries. This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed. This summer shows that at 1.4°C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope. The analysis shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago.

Valuing the Future. Pennsylvania’s Shrinking Economic Fossil Fuel Footprint Leaves a Widening Fiscal Gap, Cohn et al., Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Pennsylvania’s budget deficit will widen as state spending outpaces tax receipt growth. The largest economic contributions from the state’s coal industry, its petrochemical sector, and its natural gas business are several years in the rearview. Tax credits that are 26 times the size of effective tax rates on the fossil fuel industry are adding fuel to the fire. The state’s tax policy toward natural resource extraction should be revised to align industry contributions with policy goals.

Enquête Sur la Surexposition des Quartiers Populaires aux Vagues de Chaleur (Survey on the Overexposure of Working-Class Neighborhoods Heat Waves), Fondation Pour le Logement des Défavorisés (Foundation for the Housing of the Disadvantaged)

The authors analyze the latest trends and data on living in kettle housing (uninsulated apartments) by examining summer fuel poverty in working-class neighborhoods. They present recommendations on how people can move out of these types of apartments.

Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, JP. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management

The author looks at energy arguments, battles and debates: the affect of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels.

Let The Sun In: Clean Energy Is The Cheapest Way To Meet Rising Demand, Pierpont, Energy Innovation Policy and Technology

To better understand how to best meet growing demand in today’s changing electricity landscape, the authors conducted a national analysis examining two futures for meeting electricity demand through 2030: one where the U.S. doubles down on fossil fuels as demand accelerates, consistent with the current federal policy approach, and another where America takes full advantage of clean energy to meet growing electricity use. They found that meeting America’s expected demand growth with a fossil fuel-heavy approach will add $29.7 billion annually to customer bills by 2030. However, the clean energy scenario reduces overall costs to meet load growth by $5.1 billion annually that year compared to a high fossil scenario, a savings of 17 percent. These costs will be passed through to both existing and new customers, and policymakers in many states are working to ensure that large, rapidly growing customers like data centers pay their fair share. This means the cost of meeting America’s expected electricity demand growth will be significant, but doing it with a clean energy portfolio reduces the overall system cost.

States at the wheel: A state policy scorecard on electric vehicle readiness, Shriya Methkupally and Mark Muro, Brookings

State policies promoting electric vehicles (EVs) lie at the center of the action in the wake of federal policy retrenchment, but they vary widely. The authors benchmark states’ EV policy implementation, with scores ranging from zero to 11 out of a possible 13. The highest scores are clustered in the Northeast, West Coast, and a handful of other states. Six states—mostly in the South—have no EV policies in place, scoring zero across all indicators. High-scoring states use a combination of policies across consumer incentives, charging infrastructure, environmental standards, market access laws, and public procurement. Charging infrastructure and procurement are the most consistent gaps among mid-scoring states. Ten of the 12 mid-tier states score minimally on charging infrastructure policies and near zero on EV fleet procurement targets. The scorecard points to different next steps for different types of states. High-scoring states should prioritize preserving adopted policies; mid-tier states should focus on filling gaps; and low-scoring states should prioritize low-cost entry points.

Improving Future U.S. Drought Assessment, Overpeak et al., National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

The authors examine how drought assessment can better account for nonstationarity, or shifts in drought conditions and behaviors over time. The authors explore how climate variability and change, along with evolving water and land management practices, are altering drought characteristics and affecting the usefulness of traditional assessment approaches that rely on historical baselines. The authors propose a framework for incorporating nonstationarity into drought assessment to support decision-making and future resilience. They outline a two-pronged approach that addresses both short-term operational needs, such as drought monitoring and early warning, and long-term planning for water management, infrastructure, and adaptation. The authors also highlight opportunities to strengthen drought indicators, affect data, and scientific understanding of drought dynamics to support more effective drought assessment across the United States.

Home Buying in the Energy Transition, The Smart Energy Consumer Collaborative

The authors investigated the influence of energy efficiency and clean energy technologies on the home-buying process. What information about the home’s energy efficiency is readily available? How important would this information be for consumers as they evaluate potential homes? Are realtors able to promote efficiency in listings and tours, and to what degree are they able to educate consumers who may be looking for answers about energy efficiency? The research uncovered multiple opportunities for improvement throughout the home-buying process – opportunities for creating win-win-win outcomes for all participants.

Transition Minerals Tracker; Key findings 2026, Gómez et al., Business and Human Rights Tracker

The solutions to the climate crisis are today well known: full fossil fuel phase-out and swift deployment of wind and solar capacity, coupled with general electrification. This critical new energy expansion is helping to fuel a global mining boom for copper, cobalt and the other transition minerals – accelerated by growing competition and pressure from other expanding sectors such as tech and defense. But increasing mineral demand is also fueling environmental and human rights risks. New data reveals a dramatic surge in human rights abuses linked to the mines supplying materials for the global energy transition. The authors document the human rights implications of mining operations for key minerals used in renewable energy, electrification, and battery technologies, since 2010. These allegations are closely linked to rising social conflict around mining operations and should raise concern across the renewable energy value chain, from mining companies to end-users of their products.

2026 State of Reliability. Assessment Overview of 2025 Bulk Power System Performance, The North American Electric Reliability Corporation

The report is a high-level summary of the most important and actionable topics affecting the Bulk Power Supply (BPS) and how these are being addressed along with a comprehensive annual analytical review of BPS reliability for the 2025 calendar year. The analysis provides an unbiased, data-driven look at the BPS’s reliability, identifying ongoing challenges, and informing future looking assessments. This overview seeks to inform regulators, policymakers, and industry leaders of the most significant reliability risks facing the BPS. About New Research

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