Centre for Future Work

Millions of Canadians continue to struggle to pay the bills for the necessities of life, and with Donald Trump’s trade war and his new conflict in the Middle East, things are getting worse. Meanwhile, the stock market sets record highs and financial wealth become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small minority. Based on income tax data, the richest 1.5% of Canadians own over half of all net financial wealth (based on distribution of capital gains).

The striking gap in economic trajectory between a lucky elite at the top, and the challenges faced by the majority of society, has given rise to the term ‘K-shaped economy.’ The term first became popular in describing the growing gap in U.S. society, but it is increasingly applicable in Canada, as well.

In this 25 minute podcast for CityNews’ In This Economy program, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford spoke with host Kris McCusker about the K-shaped economy, its causes and consequences.

Narrowing the gap between the two parts of the ‘K’ requires addressing both the ‘predistribution’ of income (empowering workers to capture a larger share of value-added in the first place) and the ‘redistribution’ of income (using government taxes and transfer programs to achieve greater equality in after-tax incomes).

The post The K-Shaped Economy appeared first on Centre for Future Work.

The war in the Persian Gulf has caused the biggest disruption in oil supply in world history, and is driving up costs and inflation around the world – including in Canada.

New research from the Centre for Future Work, published through the False Profits project, shows how damaging this latest oil shock will be for affordability and inflation in Canada. It also proposes policies to protect consumers and workers.

The numbers are grim: The report predicts $50 billion in additional consumer costs over a 12-month period, and inflation jumping to 4.2%, even if the conflict ended and the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow.

If the Strait remains closed for longer, the impacts on consumers will be much worse. Three months of additional closure would double the hit to Canadian consumers (to $100 billion), and push Canadian inflation to 6.9%.

The study also estimates the windfall revenue gains flowing to Canada’s petroleum industry from the war. Upstream oil revenue will soar by $65 billion over 12 months, even if the Strait reopens immediately. Under a longer closure, the industry’s revenue would increase by up to $155 billion, reaching almost $400 billion in total over the 12-month period.

The report advocates measures to stabilize oil prices within Canada (since Canada produces almost three times as much oil as it consumes, and production costs at home are unaffected by the Persian Gulf conflict), redistribute record petroleum profits back to consumers, and accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources.

Please see the full report, A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians.

The post A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians. appeared first on Centre for Future Work.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s war against Iran has unleashed a cavalcade of global economic disruptions. Most severe is the impact of the blockage of shipping through the Straits of Hormuz on worldwide oil prices, and supply chains for other commodities (including natural gas, fertilizer, and chemicals). Even though Canada produces far more oil. Gas, and fertilizer than we use, the resulting price spike has hit us, too – as a result of our policy choice to tie domestic prices (even for our own energy) to that global roller-coaster.

In this CBC national radio interview with host Piya Chattopadhyay, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford discusses the impacts of the war (on top of the disruptions from Trump’s tariff policies) on Canada’s economy, in the lead-up to the federal government’s spring fiscal update.

What the government's policy playbook might mean for your pocketbook.

The post CBC Sunday Morning Feature Interview: Trump’s War and the Macroeconomic Outlook appeared first on Centre for Future Work.